I don't understand the "Russia getting stronger" bit. Russia's military capabilities have been badly degraded, and that continues. So they're making more drones, so what? They're getting desperation hardware from N Korea and their industrial base is a shambles.
Nah, I think South Africa’s Republic is more resilient than that. Also Elon holds very little sway over there, to the point where Ramaphosa was begging for Starlink (which he couldn’t do if the ANC were fighting Elon’s influence tooth and nail).