2024 Political Polls

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Wisconsin polling has always been wonky. I think it is interesting that Trump doesnt seem to go to Wisconsin at all. He really is trying for the east coast stand. Doing a rally in NY yesterday was weird as hell though
 
NYT poll w/ Harris +4 in PA but tied nationally. Commentary about how polls have been showing Trump’s advantage in the electoral college fading. Dovetails with results from polls like NY that have Harris behind Biden 2020.

www.nytimes.com

Harris Had Stronger Debate, Polls Find, but the Race Remains Deadlocked

Kamala Harris holds an edge over Donald J. Trump in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. But new surveys found that the race remains a tossup nationally.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
aGDevil2k said:
Wisconsin polling has always been wonky. I think it is interesting that Trump doesnt seem to go to Wisconsin at all. He really is trying for the east coast stand. Doing a rally in NY yesterday was weird as hell though
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Especially since Dobbs, WI polls have tended to undercount Dems. It’ll be close but I’m not too concerned about Kamala’s chances there.
 
That NYT poll is ludicrous. There is zero chance we are tied nationally but up 4 in PA.
Michigan seems good.
Have to get Nevada
Then Wisconsin or Arizona and then
Going to come down to getting 1 of NC, PA, GA

This system is so fucking stupid
 
nycfan said:
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Another "in what world ..." poll. Hard to see a scenario where Harris wins PA by 4 and doesn't win the general by 5+. Biden won PA by 1.17.

ETA: I read the last three pages continuously, and it was like walking through a haunted house anticipating jump scares. Also, the number of polling orgs seems out of control. Is there a list of known "red wave" polling outfits? Of course I known Trafalgar, TIPP, and Rasmussen.
 
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dukeman92 said:
JFC! Whatever these folks "didn't see" from Harris they surely saw from Trump. I mean, this is getting ridiculous. I can't fathom how anyone who is truly "undecided" watched that debate and came away thinking that Trump would be better for them in any way.
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The media generally (and NYT specifically) have a vested interest in soliciting this response (I don’t know enough about her) unless and until said media gets the interviews they want with the candidate to properly inform their readers.

It is also seems IMO that Harris has been far too limited in her major media and small media interviews and it is starting to cost her, whether that is fair or not. Certainly it is not an issue the media is going to just drop.
 
dukeman92 said:
I agree. And I’ve said as much. She needs to get out there and do some town halls and some national interviews.
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She needs to get at least a couple of town halls in over the next six weeks, IMO. Harris was very good in the debate, once she got her footing. She appeared to think well on her feet when provided content to play off of, i.e. ttump's nonsense. I predict the town hall dynamic plays much better to Harris's skills, i.e. connecting with a perusable "jury", thinking on her feet, and asking audience members clarifying questions.

With the interviews, the interviewer is typically trying to provide minimal feedback. My interpretation is Harris then gets caught up in processing rehearsed answers, which then sound flat and wishy washy, even if those answers emerge exactly how she practiced.
 
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