2024 Political Polls

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superrific said:
I thought you weren't married and never would be. I got chewed out for that mistake a couple of years ago. Have you changed your mind?
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We are not married but we have been together for 20 years. I also seriously doubt you were ever chewed out for mistaking us as married.
 


I was unaware that anyone did metro area presidential polls — but this is a Democratic advisor’s effort for the benefit of local Democratic pols. Has Harris leading Trump 54-40 🤷‍♀️



No Thanks Nah Mate GIF by Julie Muir Celebrant
 
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"There's something happening on the ground in Florida."

Perhaps it is because more than anyone else in the country (except maybe Texans) Florida has seen and felt the effects of what a MAGA driven agenda looks like when put in place by an asshole like DeSantis and a loyal MAGA legislature. Maybe they've seen enough.
 
I think the killer campaign stops and speeches in the battleground states this week have started to take affect for the Harris/Walz ticket nation-wide. I look for the polls to reflect that rather consistently the next week or so. Add in the DNC convention - which all indications point to a continuation of these rallies/speeches - and then you'll have another bump in the polling. I seriously doubt the direction of the polling between now and the Sept 10 debate on ABC will swing back toward the trump/vance ticket.

Should Harris wipe the floor with trump in that debate, exactly like a prosecutor should, then yet more momentum should follow.

That said, after 2016, I ain't counting any chickens or putting much stock in the polling before Nov. 5. But it all does seem to bode well for the good guys.
 
Centerpiece said:
I think the killer campaign stops and speeches in the battleground states this week have started to take affect for the Harris/Walz ticket nation-wide. I look for the polls to reflect that rather consistently the next week or so. Add in the DNC convention - which all indications point to a continuation of these rallies/speeches - and then you'll have another bump in the polling. I seriously doubt the direction of the polling between now and the Sept 10 debate on ABC will swing back toward the trump/vance ticket.

Should Harris wipe the floor with trump in that debate, exactly like a prosecutor should, then yet more momentum should follow.

That said, after 2016, I ain't counting any chickens or putting much stock in the polling before Nov. 5. But it all does seem to bode well for the good guys.
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Lots left to do
But as a Father and Grandfather and Great , Great Uncle--I feel better
 
Rock said:
Yeah, keeping the momentum has me worried. Trump had the momentum like 3 weeks ago. Granted, a lot changed but..

I'm a worrier!

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That’s entirely justifiable, but there’s a big difference. Trump had momentum mainly because of Biden. Kamala has momentum because people love what they’re seeing from her. Most Americans still hate Trump and that won’t change. If Kamala can continue being likeable and positive, I think she has a great chance to crush him.
 
farce said:
"There's something happening on the ground in Florida."

Perhaps it is because more than anyone else in the country (except maybe Texans) Florida has seen and felt the effects of what a MAGA driven agenda looks like when put in place by an asshole like DeSantis and a loyal MAGA legislature. Maybe they've seen enough.
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That poll is Miami-specific, but I can tell you what's happening on a wider level in FL. It's the same thing that has happened all over the country, but especially in states where the reproductive rights issues have made their way onto the ballots: it was wildly, wildly unpopular to overturn Roe and restrict those existing rights in any way, and republicans are going to pay massively for it. Firmly red places like KS, OH, KY have already shown the turnout waves it has created. This is an underestimated and under-polled population and it's going to show up huge.

As far as battleground states, reproductive rights are directly on the ballot in FL and NV. But the albatross is indirectly draped around the neck of every republican on every state's ballot, and I've been saying that even a cardboard cutout of Biden could've won this election, even after the debate disaster and ensuing media/pundits panic. It seems like only me and that one presidential historian who makes the predictions still feel that way.

But now that part is moot, and where Biden would've just edged by, Harris has energized people in a way that is going to make it a total beatdown. The convention bump hasn't even come yet. By Nov 5, it won't be close.
 
duluoz said:
That poll is Miami-specific, but I can tell you what's happening on a wider level in FL. It's the same thing that has happened all over the country, but especially in states where the reproductive rights issues have made their way onto the ballots: it was wildly, wildly unpopular to overturn Roe and restrict those existing rights in any way, and republicans are going to pay massively for it. Firmly red places like KS, OH, KY have already shown the turnout waves it has created. This is an underestimated and under-polled population and it's going to show up huge.

As far as battleground states, reproductive rights are directly on the ballot in FL and NV. But the albatross is indirectly draped around the neck of every republican on every state's ballot, and I've been saying that even a cardboard cutout of Biden could've won this election, even after the debate disaster and ensuing media/pundits panic. It seems like only me and that one presidential historian who makes the predictions still feel that way.

But now that part is moot, and where Biden would've just edged by, Harris has energized people in a way that is going to make it a total beatdown. The convention bump hasn't even come yet. By Nov 5, it won't be close.
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Agreed. I think it's going to be an absolute electoral asskicking.
 
Zoo_View said:
I said it to CFord on a thread (maybe this one), many of you haven’t experienced a Democratic circular firing squad…..Kamala Harris hasn’t.

LONG, LONG WAY to go.

Don’t go ordering drapes or couches for the Oval Office or West Wing.
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After the 2016 nightmare, and Trump doing better than expected in 2020, I'm not going to feel confident or comfortable until all of the votes are counted and Harris has been officially certified as the winner by Congress and the Electoral College in January 2025. It does look bad for Trump right now, but as we've seen over the past month the momentum in campaigns can change on a dime in modern politics. If Harris or Walz has a disappointing debate performance or some right-wing media outlet digs up some dirt on Harris or Walz or something else unexpected happens then her momentum could come to a halt rather quickly. Having said all that, I would rather be in her position than Trump's right now.
 
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