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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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BillOfRights said:
Great that 1 WI and 2 MI have moved toward a realistic expectation of going blue, even though they are still being in play. I'm hopeful with Baldwin and Slotkin.
3 AZ seems like a red-lean, and I'm still shocked Biden carried it in 2020, but I agree Lake is an anchor, so still a toss-up.
4 PA is for all the marbles, and I don't expect to know the outcome there until Nov 10-12. I hope Casey and Shapiro help, but it isn't showing yet.
5 GA Harris will not be allowed to win there. The new election board has almost assured that. Will be messy, ugly, and worse than a GA outhouse in July. There will be more lawsuits than counties, and if Harris gets more votes than trump, I don't expect it to be settled in time for J6, 2025.
6 NV Rosen seems to be doing well, but Nevada is, shall I say, weird. The good thing is Nevada won't be needed unless Harris loses PA, but even then needs to combine with AZ, GA, or NC.
7 NC How heavy are the anchors Robinson and Morrow???

I'm more hopeful now that WI and MI look better, if some of these move only 1 percentage point toward trump, he could still win it.

"I still love America, I just don't know how to get there anymore." - John Prine, 1971
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As for your comment about NC, I do think that Robinson is becoming a drag on the GOP ticket. Morrow, on the other hand, is still likely to win her race unless the Democrats can do a better job of publicizing her extreme comments and views on any number of subjects. My guess is that most voters still don't know much about her, which in NC likely gives her the edge as she has the magic (R) next to her name.
 
duluoz said:
I'm happy for the campaign to keep attacking it as though they're in a close race. Given the registration numbers I've seen, combined with the polling aggregates, I just don't think it's actually that close anymore.

But what they won't do this time is make the same mistake that Hillary and the DNC made -- shift budget over to House and Senate races, and slow campaign trail stops in key states and regions. If Hillary hadn't coasted and instead had acted like she was in a close race, we would've never been in this mess in the first place. Comey notwithstanding, she got outworked in the home stretch of that race.

Harris won't. In fact, he's the one who has been inexplicably coasting, relatively.
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I think folks are really misconstruing the registration data. Only recently have Dems overtake Rs in registration. But Republicans have outstripped Dems for near a year in voter registration numbers. Dems did better week by week in August. Their overall registration advantage since 2022 has dipped.
 
Igs149 said:
I think folks are really misconstruing the registration data. Only recently have Dems overtake Rs in registration. But Republicans have outstripped Dems for near a year in voter registration numbers. Dems did better week by week in August. Their overall registration advantage since 2022 has dipped.
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Out of curiosity, are those numbers affected by the various voter purges?
 
CharmCityTiger said:
I think people are forgetting how much of a wipeout 2008 was. Obama won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by 10, 14 and 17 points respectively and Ohio by almost 5. The guy won freaking Indiana and came within 3,900 votes of winning Missouri.
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It COULD be because our dumb system only makes people see the raw electoral votes and winning a state by 1 or 30 is the same. But just a theory.
 
CharmCityTiger said:
I think people are forgetting how much of a wipeout 2008 was. Obama won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by 10, 14 and 17 points respectively and Ohio by almost 5. The guy won freaking Indiana and came within 3,900 votes of winning Missouri.
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In fairness, before that, Missouri was the bellwether state.
 
CharmCityTiger said:
I think people are forgetting how much of a wipeout 2008 was. Obama won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by 10, 14 and 17 points respectively and Ohio by almost 5. The guy won freaking Indiana and came within 3,900 votes of winning Missouri.
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In 2008, MAGA had not been activated like they were in 2016 and since. Even if Harris gets Obama turnout, that will be necessary to overcome MAGA base plus other Pubs who vote magic R.
 
BurtoniumAD said:
Trump is a very weak candidate who lost in 2020 and has not only continued losing supporters since then, has not broadened a base at all and has had the Dobbs decision and J6 since he lost. Prominent Republicans are not only speaking out against him, but also endorsing Harris, something that didn't happen in 2020. He was the foregone conclusion in the Republican primaries this go round and still received 80% or less of the vote even after Haley dropped out.

He had no room for error going into this election, and he not only has exceeded that error margin, he continues to bleed it. I know people want to focus on the polls, and they are informative, but they are just a bit of the story, especially these days where good polling is very hard. They are a snapshot in time and not necessarily predictive, especially since Dobbs where right-wing polling has overstated the right's impact. The Red Wave was a Red ripple that led to McCarthey being ousted. Democrats have outvoted the polls consistently since then, MAGA candidates have been consistent failures across the board with the exception of a few. When you couple that with waning enthusiasm on the right, climbing enthusiasm on the left, center right leaving Trump in droves, he needs a miracle to win. Never say never, but people are playing with PTSD of a 12 seed beating a 5 seed. This is a weaker 13 seed seed playing a 4 seed where the 13 seed has an injured star who has carried them the entire season.

Do I think Trump can win? With the electoral college, Absolutely. Do I think he will win? No. Do I think he will lose? Yes. Do I think he'll lose by a lot? Yes.

If Biden was 65 years old, this would have been over by now already. The only reason it has been this close was because his age, period. Trump is not a winning candidate, he was just hoping his opponent would beat himself.
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I would say there are a lot of places I would push back on this take on the election...

- Trump is not a weak candidate, he's a polarizing one. And while that means the has a pretty significant hard cap on the support he'll receive, he also has a pretty likely fairly high floor of 46-47% of the nation-wide popular vote.

- The country is much more divided than it was in 2008. Far fewer people are willing to cross over to vote for someone of the "other" party than they were 16 years ago, especially for a top-of-the-ticket position like POTUS.

- Increased polarization is not just at the party level, but also has a built-in geographic component. There are fewer "swing states" in 2024 than in 2008 due to the fact that in some places, especially the reddish-purple states that Kamala would need to have a 2008-style win, the electoral structure has been taken over by Pubs with a goal to ensure that Dems can't win those races via vote & voter suppression techniques. Even where this is not the case or not as greatly the case, most states have become more closely aligned with their "preferred party" over the last 16 years so that there are fewer states actually up for grabs.

- Obama was a generational politician who attracted new folks to his campaign to support him and to the polls. Kamala, as much as I like her, isn't that kind of candidate. She will hopefully do well to maximize the turnout of Dems and Dem-leaners, but I don't see her being able to inspire a large amount of non-traditional voters to come to the polls to support her.

- 2008 was set up to be a Dem-lean election even before Obama got the nomination. Coming off of 8 years of a fairly widely panned Pub president in Dubya meant a lot of folks were ready for a Dem to be president. Conversely, in 2024 we've got a Dem in the WH who is taking heat for whatever is wrong in the world and Kamala is having, at least to some extent, defend the state of the country over the last 4 years.

So, for all of those reasons, I would find it very surprising if Kamala were able to win big if we're defining "win big" as leading the popular vote by 7% and winning over 350 EVs.
 
nycfan said:
Whether you see a race stabilizing or Trump regaining momentum/slippage for Harris seems directly correlated to what extent your aggregation model credits the raft of right-leaning polls that have come out the last week or so.
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Or Nate silver absolutely sucks these days because Peter is backing his scraggly ass
 
The Times of London/YouGov polled the battleground states:
  • Arizona: Trump 47%, Harris 45%
  • Georgia: Trump 47%, Harris 45%
  • Michigan: Harris 48%, Trump 43%
  • Nevada: Harris 49%, Trump 46%
  • North Carolina: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
  • Pennsylvania: Harris 46%, Trump 45%
  • Wisconsin: Harris 47%, Trump 44%
politicalwire.com

Political Wire

All the political news in one place
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com
 
www.cookpolitical.com

Toward Another Photo Finish

There may well be a lot of people losing their fingernails over the next 64 days. Speaking for myself, Nov. 5 can’t come soon enough. This presidential race is really, really close.It’s fascinating to think that the debate between President Biden and former President Trump was just 67 days ago...
www.cookpolitical.com www.cookpolitical.com

“The presidential election now looks likely to be a photo-finish, quite possibly resulting in the third Electoral College ‘inversion’ in the last seven elections. Only three times during the 1700s, 1800s, and 1900s did one major party candidate win the national popular vote and the other the Electoral College vote—1824, 1876, and 1888. It took 112 years for it to happen again, when George W. Bush lost the popular vote but beat Al Gore by 537 votes in Florida, winning the decisive 25 electoral votes in the Sunshine State.”
 
nycfan said:
The Times of London/YouGov polled the battleground states:
  • Arizona: Trump 47%, Harris 45%
  • Georgia: Trump 47%, Harris 45%
  • Michigan: Harris 48%, Trump 43%
  • Nevada: Harris 49%, Trump 46%
  • North Carolina: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
  • Pennsylvania: Harris 46%, Trump 45%
  • Wisconsin: Harris 47%, Trump 44%
politicalwire.com

Political Wire

All the political news in one place
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com
Click to expand...
It sure seems like this election is basically coming down to a state-wide referendum in PA.
 
nycfan said:
www.cookpolitical.com

Toward Another Photo Finish

There may well be a lot of people losing their fingernails over the next 64 days. Speaking for myself, Nov. 5 can’t come soon enough. This presidential race is really, really close.It’s fascinating to think that the debate between President Biden and former President Trump was just 67 days ago...
www.cookpolitical.com www.cookpolitical.com

“The presidential election now looks likely to be a photo-finish, quite possibly resulting in the third Electoral College ‘inversion’ in the last seven elections. Only three times during the 1700s, 1800s, and 1900s did one major party candidate win the national popular vote and the other the Electoral College vote—1824, 1876, and 1888. It took 112 years for it to happen again, when George W. Bush lost the popular vote but beat Al Gore by 537 votes in Florida, winning the decisive 25 electoral votes in the Sunshine State.”
Click to expand...
Unless and until the GQP sheds the shackles and stench of MAGA it will never come close to winning the popular vote. At this point the EC is as much a threat to democracy as Donald Trump.
 
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