2024 Political Polls

[BurtoniumAD]

Wow.

You and I certainly have different conceptions of elections in 2024.

Trump is a very weak candidate who lost in 2020 and has not only continued losing supporters since then, has not broadened a base at all and has had the Dobbs decision and J6 since he lost. Prominent Republicans are not only speaking out against him, but also endorsing Harris, something that didn't happen in 2020. He was the foregone conclusion in the Republican primaries this go round and still received 80% or less of the vote even after Haley dropped out.

He had no room for error going into this election, and he not only has exceeded that error margin, he continues to bleed it. I know people want to focus on the polls, and they are informative, but they are just a bit of the story, especially these days where good polling is very hard. They are a snapshot in time and not necessarily predictive, especially since Dobbs where right-wing polling has overstated the right's impact. The Red Wave was a Red ripple that led to McCarthey being ousted. Democrats have outvoted the polls consistently since then, MAGA candidates have been consistent failures across the board with the exception of a few. When you couple that with waning enthusiasm on the right, climbing enthusiasm on the left, center right leaving Trump in droves, he needs a miracle to win. Never say never, but people are playing with PTSD of a 12 seed beating a 5 seed. This is a weaker 13 seed seed playing a 4 seed where the 13 seed has an injured star who has carried them the entire season.

Do I think Trump can win? With the electoral college, Absolutely. Do I think he will win? No. Do I think he will lose? Yes. Do I think he'll lose by a lot? Yes.

If Biden was 65 years old, this would have been over by now already. The only reason it has been this close was because his age, period. Trump is not a winning candidate, he was just hoping his opponent would beat himself.

 

[BillOfRights]

I think people who identify abortion rights as the most important issue to them are people who have always been at least fairly politically aware and would come to the polls anyway. And they have been historically pro-Democrat. It’s that small group of undecideds for whom this provides an out. I was listening to a segment on NPR this morning where they were talking to undecided voters. One woman leaned Trump, but she was torn because she also wanted to protect abortion rights. I don’t know where she was from, but if she lived in Arizona, for example, she can have it both ways in the voting booth. If she lives somewhere where abortion rights are not on the ballot, then that very well could be what pulls her from Trump to Harris. If anyone is undecided simply because they are okay with Trump but also want to protect abortion rights (and there are such people, as crazy and counterintuitive as that may sound), then putting it on the ballot a la carte favors Trump in those situations.

There may be a not insignificant number of younger voters who might otherwise have been uninterested who will vote for Harris instead of not voting.
There may be a not insignificant number of voters who voted for trump in the past, but this is a bridge too far, and they flip to Harris.
I don't think this is a persuasion election as much as it will be a turnout election, though, and states with abortion on the ballot, or abortion and marijuana, like Florida, may have a difference-making turnout that the polls aren't modeling.

 

[quakerdevil]

Trump is a very weak candidate who lost in 2020 and has not only continued losing supporters since then, has not broadened a base at all and has had the Dobbs decision and J6 since he lost. Prominent Republicans are not only speaking out against him, but also endorsing Harris, something that didn't happen in 2020. He was the foregone conclusion in the Republican primaries this go round and still received 80% or less of the vote even after Haley dropped out.

He had no room for error going into this election, and he not only has exceeded that error margin, he continues to bleed it. I know people want to focus on the polls, and they are informative, but they are just a bit of the story, especially these days where good polling is very hard. They are a snapshot in time and not necessarily predictive, especially since Dobbs where right-wing polling has overstated the right's impact. The Red Wave was a Red ripple that led to McCarthey being ousted. Democrats have outvoted the polls consistently since then, MAGA candidates have been consistent failures across the board with the exception of a few. When you couple that with waning enthusiasm on the right, climbing enthusiasm on the left, center right leaving Trump in droves, he needs a miracle to win. Never say never, but people are playing with PTSD of a 12 seed beating a 5 seed. This is a weaker 13 seed seed playing a 4 seed where the 13 seed has an injured star who has carried them the entire season.

Do I think Trump can win? With the electoral college, Absolutely. Do I think he will win? No. Do I think he will lose? Yes. Do I think he'll lose by a lot? Yes.

If Biden was 65 years old, this would have been over by now already. The only reason it has been this close was because his age, period. Trump is not a winning candidate, he was just hoping his opponent would beat himself.

Sorry I want to agree but I can't. An Obama 08 style win gives Harris Florida, Ohio, ME2, and Iowa in addition to all the swing states. In that scenario, Texas is also in play. There's no shot.

 

[Zoo_View]

Trump is a very weak candidate who lost in 2020 and has not only continued losing supporters since then, has not broadened a base at all and has had the Dobbs decision and J6 since he lost. Prominent Republicans are not only speaking out against him, but also endorsing Harris, something that didn't happen in 2020. He was the foregone conclusion in the Republican primaries this go round and still received 80% or less of the vote even after Haley dropped out.

He had no room for error going into this election, and he not only has exceeded that error margin, he continues to bleed it. I know people want to focus on the polls, and they are informative, but they are just a bit of the story, especially these days where good polling is very hard. They are a snapshot in time and not necessarily predictive, especially since Dobbs where right-wing polling has overstated the right's impact. The Red Wave was a Red ripple that led to McCarthey being ousted. Democrats have outvoted the polls consistently since then, MAGA candidates have been consistent failures across the board with the exception of a few. When you couple that with waning enthusiasm on the right, climbing enthusiasm on the left, center right leaving Trump in droves, he needs a miracle to win. Never say never, but people are playing with PTSD of a 12 seed beating a 5 seed. This is a weaker 13 seed seed playing a 4 seed where the 13 seed has an injured star who has carried them the entire season.

Do I think Trump can win? With the electoral college, Absolutely. Do I think he will win? No. Do I think he will lose? Yes. Do I think he'll lose by a lot? Yes.

If Biden was 65 years old, this would have been over by now already. The only reason it has been this close was because his age, period. Trump is not a winning candidate, he was just hoping his opponent would beat himself.

I hope you are correct.

 

[BurtoniumAD]

I hope you are correct.

Well, if you remember the old board, I said Biden/Harris would beat Trump before that was the ticket, so I'm batting 1.000

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

Sorry I want to agree but I can't. An Obama 08 style win gives Harris Florida, Ohio, ME2, and Iowa in addition to all the swing states. In that scenario, Texas is also in play. There's no shot.

Well since in 08 Obama did NOT win Arizona or Georgia (worth 25 EVs in 08), then you can flip Ohio and Iowa red (losing 27 in 2008 value) and it’s basically a wash. So really you’re just talking about Florida.

 

[BillOfRights]

Of the current "swing states," this is how I would rank them with respect to my confidence that Harris carries them:

1. Wisconsin - feel pretty confident here
2. Michigan - you could flip this with Wisconsin and I wouldn't argue
3. Arizona - not sure this aligns with the data but I think Kari Lake is going to lose by several points and be a big anchor on Trump here
4. Pennsylvania - the likely tipping point state; I'm really nervous about the polling
5. Georgia - only four letters that matter here: G-O-T-V. If Dems can get their urban voters to the polls (and get their votes in over all the likely Republican vote-suppressing shenanigans) they can win here.
6. Nevada - see my post above, I think this one is trending away from Dems in a macro sense
7. NC - I'll believe it when I see it

Great that 1 WI and 2 MI have moved toward a realistic expectation of going blue, even though they are still being in play. I'm hopeful with Baldwin and Slotkin.
3 AZ seems like a red-lean, and I'm still shocked Biden carried it in 2020, but I agree Lake is an anchor, so still a toss-up.
4 PA is for all the marbles, and I don't expect to know the outcome there until Nov 10-12. I hope Casey and Shapiro help, but it isn't showing yet.
5 GA Harris will not be allowed to win there. The new election board has almost assured that. Will be messy, ugly, and worse than a GA outhouse in July. There will be more lawsuits than counties, and if Harris gets more votes than trump, I don't expect it to be settled in time for J6, 2025.
6 NV Rosen seems to be doing well, but Nevada is, shall I say, weird. The good thing is Nevada won't be needed unless Harris loses PA, but even then needs to combine with AZ, GA, or NC.
7 NC How heavy are the anchors Robinson and Morrow???

I'm more hopeful now that WI and MI look better, if some of these move only 1 percentage point toward trump, he could still win it.

"I still love America, I just don't know how to get there anymore." - John Prine, 1971

 

[BurtoniumAD]

Sorry I want to agree but I can't. An Obama 08 style win gives Harris Florida, Ohio, ME2, and Iowa in addition to all the swing states. In that scenario, Texas is also in play. There's no shot.

That's fine, but here is where I think it will shake out:

Harris wins Blue Wall states, NE-2, Arizona, Georgia & NC.

I think Ohio is winnable but won't do it.

I think Florida is way closer than people want to believe and definitely think it's possible - the fact that the Trump campaign is pouring money into Florida should tell you how scared they are.

I think Nevada is possible.

Texas won't do it this time, but Republicans have a real Texas problem. Texas is going to be a swing state in the next election which basically makes Republicans non-electable at the national scale. The gap has been tightening in every election. By 2032, Texas will be light blue, IMO.

I do not think Democrats win Texas and Florida this go round, but I think they make all of the above in play, which makes 28 and the future very bad for Republicans, especially when you realize Trump will run yet again once he loses this time around, his family runs the RNC, etc. 28 may be a Reaganesuqe drubbing and beyond.

 

[BillOfRights]

At a macro level, I think we’re now to the point where the election comes down to one question — can Kamala avoid a major mistake? If she can, she wins. Trump’s support is capped. He’s not even trying to win new voters now. He’ll be doing everything he can to drive down Dem enthusiasm, but realistically, the only way that happens is if Kamala says something really stupid, a new (legitimate) scandal emerges, etc.

The biggest problem for Trump, though, is that Kamala’s support is not yet capped. She’s still not universally known, and even many of those who know her don’t know what she really stands for. She can still bring people off the sideline. Trump can’t.

Get ready for the ugliest, most negative two months in the recent history of presidential politics. Trump and his sycophants will be doing everything they can to make Kamala trip. She just needs to stay on her feet and shrug off the muck that will be thrown her way. I think she can do it.

Internal trump campaign comms are that they can't make trump likeable, so their only hope is to make Harris unlikeable.

 

[Calheel]

That's fine, but here is where I think it will shake out:

Harris wins Blue Wall states, NE-2, Arizona, Georgia & NC.

I think Ohio is winnable but won't do it.

I think Florida is way closer than people want to believe and definitely think it's possible - the fact that the Trump campaign is pouring money into Florida should tell you how scared they are.

I think Nevada is possible.

Texas won't do it this time, but Republicans have a real Texas problem. Texas is going to be a swing state in the next election which basically makes Republicans non-electable at the national scale. The gap has been tightening in every election. By 2032, Texas will be light blue, IMO.

I do not think Democrats win Texas and Florida this go round, but I think they make all of the above in play, which makes 28 and the future very bad for Republicans, especially when you realize Trump will run yet again once he loses this time around, his family runs the RNC, etc. 28 may be a Reaganesuqe drubbing and beyond.

From your lips to god's ears.

If you think this is going to happen, you could get very good odds in the betting markets right now. $10 wins you $300 on polymarket.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Great that 1 WI and 2 MI have moved toward a realistic expectation of going blue, even though they are still being in play. I'm hopeful with Baldwin and Slotkin.
3 AZ seems like a red-lean, and I'm still shocked Biden carried it in 2020, but I agree Lake is an anchor, so still a toss-up.
4 PA is for all the marbles, and I don't expect to know the outcome there until Nov 10-12. I hope Casey and Shapiro help, but it isn't showing yet.
5 GA Harris will not be allowed to win there. The new election board has almost assured that. Will be messy, ugly, and worse than a GA outhouse in July. There will be more lawsuits than counties, and if Harris gets more votes than trump, I don't expect it to be settled in time for J6, 2025.
6 NV Rosen seems to be doing well, but Nevada is, shall I say, weird. The good thing is Nevada won't be needed unless Harris loses PA, but even then needs to combine with AZ, GA, or NC.
7 NC How heavy are the anchors Robinson and Morrow???

I'm more hopeful now that WI and MI look better, if some of these move only 1 percentage point toward trump, he could still win it.

"I still love America, I just don't know how to get there anymore." - John Prine, 1971

As for your comment about NC, I do think that Robinson is becoming a drag on the GOP ticket. Morrow, on the other hand, is still likely to win her race unless the Democrats can do a better job of publicizing her extreme comments and views on any number of subjects. My guess is that most voters still don't know much about her, which in NC likely gives her the edge as she has the magic (R) next to her name.

 

[Igs149]

I'm happy for the campaign to keep attacking it as though they're in a close race. Given the registration numbers I've seen, combined with the polling aggregates, I just don't think it's actually that close anymore.

But what they won't do this time is make the same mistake that Hillary and the DNC made -- shift budget over to House and Senate races, and slow campaign trail stops in key states and regions. If Hillary hadn't coasted and instead had acted like she was in a close race, we would've never been in this mess in the first place. Comey notwithstanding, she got outworked in the home stretch of that race.

Harris won't. In fact, he's the one who has been inexplicably coasting, relatively.

I think folks are really misconstruing the registration data. Only recently have Dems overtake Rs in registration. But Republicans have outstripped Dems for near a year in voter registration numbers. Dems did better week by week in August. Their overall registration advantage since 2022 has dipped.

 

[finesse]

I think folks are really misconstruing the registration data. Only recently have Dems overtake Rs in registration. But Republicans have outstripped Dems for near a year in voter registration numbers. Dems did better week by week in August. Their overall registration advantage since 2022 has dipped.

Out of curiosity, are those numbers affected by the various voter purges?

 

[CharmCityTiger]

I think people are forgetting how much of a wipeout 2008 was. Obama won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by 10, 14 and 17 points respectively and Ohio by almost 5. The guy won freaking Indiana and came within 3,900 votes of winning Missouri.

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

I think people are forgetting how much of a wipeout 2008 was. Obama won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by 10, 14 and 17 points respectively and Ohio by almost 5. The guy won freaking Indiana and came within 3,900 votes of winning Missouri.

It COULD be because our dumb system only makes people see the raw electoral votes and winning a state by 1 or 30 is the same. But just a theory.

 

[aGDevil2k]

I think people are forgetting how much of a wipeout 2008 was. Obama won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by 10, 14 and 17 points respectively and Ohio by almost 5. The guy won freaking Indiana and came within 3,900 votes of winning Missouri.

In fairness, before that, Missouri was the bellwether state.

 

[Kingpin]

I think people are forgetting how much of a wipeout 2008 was. Obama won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by 10, 14 and 17 points respectively and Ohio by almost 5. The guy won freaking Indiana and came within 3,900 votes of winning Missouri.

In 2008, MAGA had not been activated like they were in 2016 and since. Even if Harris gets Obama turnout, that will be necessary to overcome MAGA base plus other Pubs who vote magic R.

 

[SnoopRob]

Trump is a very weak candidate who lost in 2020 and has not only continued losing supporters since then, has not broadened a base at all and has had the Dobbs decision and J6 since he lost. Prominent Republicans are not only speaking out against him, but also endorsing Harris, something that didn't happen in 2020. He was the foregone conclusion in the Republican primaries this go round and still received 80% or less of the vote even after Haley dropped out.

He had no room for error going into this election, and he not only has exceeded that error margin, he continues to bleed it. I know people want to focus on the polls, and they are informative, but they are just a bit of the story, especially these days where good polling is very hard. They are a snapshot in time and not necessarily predictive, especially since Dobbs where right-wing polling has overstated the right's impact. The Red Wave was a Red ripple that led to McCarthey being ousted. Democrats have outvoted the polls consistently since then, MAGA candidates have been consistent failures across the board with the exception of a few. When you couple that with waning enthusiasm on the right, climbing enthusiasm on the left, center right leaving Trump in droves, he needs a miracle to win. Never say never, but people are playing with PTSD of a 12 seed beating a 5 seed. This is a weaker 13 seed seed playing a 4 seed where the 13 seed has an injured star who has carried them the entire season.

Do I think Trump can win? With the electoral college, Absolutely. Do I think he will win? No. Do I think he will lose? Yes. Do I think he'll lose by a lot? Yes.

If Biden was 65 years old, this would have been over by now already. The only reason it has been this close was because his age, period. Trump is not a winning candidate, he was just hoping his opponent would beat himself.

I would say there are a lot of places I would push back on this take on the election...

- Trump is not a weak candidate, he's a polarizing one. And while that means the has a pretty significant hard cap on the support he'll receive, he also has a pretty likely fairly high floor of 46-47% of the nation-wide popular vote.

- The country is much more divided than it was in 2008. Far fewer people are willing to cross over to vote for someone of the "other" party than they were 16 years ago, especially for a top-of-the-ticket position like POTUS.

- Increased polarization is not just at the party level, but also has a built-in geographic component. There are fewer "swing states" in 2024 than in 2008 due to the fact that in some places, especially the reddish-purple states that Kamala would need to have a 2008-style win, the electoral structure has been taken over by Pubs with a goal to ensure that Dems can't win those races via vote & voter suppression techniques. Even where this is not the case or not as greatly the case, most states have become more closely aligned with their "preferred party" over the last 16 years so that there are fewer states actually up for grabs.

- Obama was a generational politician who attracted new folks to his campaign to support him and to the polls. Kamala, as much as I like her, isn't that kind of candidate. She will hopefully do well to maximize the turnout of Dems and Dem-leaners, but I don't see her being able to inspire a large amount of non-traditional voters to come to the polls to support her.

- 2008 was set up to be a Dem-lean election even before Obama got the nomination. Coming off of 8 years of a fairly widely panned Pub president in Dubya meant a lot of folks were ready for a Dem to be president. Conversely, in 2024 we've got a Dem in the WH who is taking heat for whatever is wrong in the world and Kamala is having, at least to some extent, defend the state of the country over the last 4 years.

So, for all of those reasons, I would find it very surprising if Kamala were able to win big if we're defining "win big" as leading the popular vote by 7% and winning over 350 EVs.

 

[nycfan]

 

[altmin]

Allan Lichtman has said Harris will take it.

The Keys to the White House - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org