2024 Political Polls

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nycfan said:
Whether you see a race stabilizing or Trump regaining momentum/slippage for Harris seems directly correlated to what extent your aggregation model credits the raft of right-leaning polls that have come out the last week or so.
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Or Nate silver absolutely sucks these days because Peter is backing his scraggly ass
 
The Times of London/YouGov polled the battleground states:
  • Arizona: Trump 47%, Harris 45%
  • Georgia: Trump 47%, Harris 45%
  • Michigan: Harris 48%, Trump 43%
  • Nevada: Harris 49%, Trump 46%
  • North Carolina: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
  • Pennsylvania: Harris 46%, Trump 45%
  • Wisconsin: Harris 47%, Trump 44%
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www.cookpolitical.com

Toward Another Photo Finish

There may well be a lot of people losing their fingernails over the next 64 days. Speaking for myself, Nov. 5 can’t come soon enough. This presidential race is really, really close.It’s fascinating to think that the debate between President Biden and former President Trump was just 67 days ago...
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“The presidential election now looks likely to be a photo-finish, quite possibly resulting in the third Electoral College ‘inversion’ in the last seven elections. Only three times during the 1700s, 1800s, and 1900s did one major party candidate win the national popular vote and the other the Electoral College vote—1824, 1876, and 1888. It took 112 years for it to happen again, when George W. Bush lost the popular vote but beat Al Gore by 537 votes in Florida, winning the decisive 25 electoral votes in the Sunshine State.”
 
nycfan said:
The Times of London/YouGov polled the battleground states:
  • Arizona: Trump 47%, Harris 45%
  • Georgia: Trump 47%, Harris 45%
  • Michigan: Harris 48%, Trump 43%
  • Nevada: Harris 49%, Trump 46%
  • North Carolina: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
  • Pennsylvania: Harris 46%, Trump 45%
  • Wisconsin: Harris 47%, Trump 44%
politicalwire.com

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politicalwire.com politicalwire.com
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It sure seems like this election is basically coming down to a state-wide referendum in PA.
 
nycfan said:
www.cookpolitical.com

Toward Another Photo Finish

There may well be a lot of people losing their fingernails over the next 64 days. Speaking for myself, Nov. 5 can’t come soon enough. This presidential race is really, really close.It’s fascinating to think that the debate between President Biden and former President Trump was just 67 days ago...
www.cookpolitical.com www.cookpolitical.com

“The presidential election now looks likely to be a photo-finish, quite possibly resulting in the third Electoral College ‘inversion’ in the last seven elections. Only three times during the 1700s, 1800s, and 1900s did one major party candidate win the national popular vote and the other the Electoral College vote—1824, 1876, and 1888. It took 112 years for it to happen again, when George W. Bush lost the popular vote but beat Al Gore by 537 votes in Florida, winning the decisive 25 electoral votes in the Sunshine State.”
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Unless and until the GQP sheds the shackles and stench of MAGA it will never come close to winning the popular vote. At this point the EC is as much a threat to democracy as Donald Trump.
 
Calheel said:
It sure seems like this election is basically coming down to a state-wide referendum in PA.
Click to expand...
Why are voters in the other 49 states willing to accept this? It's mind-boggling. There is no law that says Dems have to win the popular vote. In fact, I'd argue that if the EC was eliminated, you'd see more voter turnout in plains and mountain states where voting has long been pointless because the states are uncompetitive.
 
farce© said:
If someone just posts a link without comment and an excerpt which gives a general overview of the contents of the link, yeah, I typically just breeze past it. I generally don’t click links without knowing what it’s about.
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superrific said:
Why are voters in the other 49 states willing to accept this? It's mind-boggling. There is no law that says Dems have to win the popular vote. In fact, I'd argue that if the EC was eliminated, you'd see more voter turnout in plains and mountain states where voting has long been pointless because the states are uncompetitive.
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The biggest impediment to changing the EC is that it would take an constitutional amendment and 40% of the country knows they benefit from the EC.

If I’m a Pub who knows that 2 of our 3 POTUS wins (out of 8 elections) since 1990 came from winning the EC while losing the popular vote, why would I want to change the system even if it means that my vote and the vote of my state has little individual impact?
 
SnoopRob said:
The biggest impediment to changing the EC is that it would take an constitutional amendment and 40% of the country knows they benefit from the EC.

If I’m a Pub who knows that 2 of our 3 POTUS wins (out of 8 elections) since 1990 came from winning the EC while losing the popular vote, why would I want to change the system even if it means that my vote and the vote of my state has little individual impact?
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This is why we need to focus on getting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact passed
 
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