2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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rodoheel said:
lol come on. Why do people do this? (Not you cford, the tweeter.) SC as a toss-up state?
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Oh I know it, totally agree with you. I hesitated to even post it but figured it was worth sharing. Not even the purest form of hopium should let anyone think that is a remote possibility
 
rodoheel said:
lol come on. Why do people do this? (Not you cford, the tweeter.) SC as a toss-up state?
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The qualifier was that if Trump collapses, that could happen. It's true. 538 runs 1000 simulations every time they update their model. They have consistently had 12-13 out of 1000 simulations with more than 400 EVs for KH. It's very unlikely, but it's not completely wrong in theory.
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
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Look I get it -- Nate is annoying. But there's nothing wrong with this. His model is saying that when Kamala wins she will win bigger than Trump, so on average she will get more EVs but the median result is slightly better for Trump.

It's like the difference between looking at a baseball team's record and their run differential. The latter is more meaningful and contains more information, but the former is what actually counts.

Run 1000 simulations. Kamala gets more total EVs, but gets the majority of EVs fewer times.
 
rodoheel said:
lol come on. Why do people do this? (Not you cford, the tweeter.) SC as a toss-up state?
Click to expand...
You know something? Not only are we going to New Hampshire, rodoheel, we’re going to South Carolina! And Oklahoma! And Arizona! And North Dakota! And New Mexico! We’re going to California! And Texas! And New York! And we’re going to South Dakota! And Oregon! And Washington and Michigan!
 
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