2025 & 2026 Elections | Blue Wave 2025 results

[CFordUNC]

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[CFordUNC]

I’m guessing all of our board MAGAts are going to magically get superduper crazy “busy at work” here for a while.

 

[Icky Mettle]

I think my biggest takeaway from all this, when also considering election results since 2016, is that Trump, when on the ballot, brings out a very substantial number of low-propensity voters who are unengaged in the electoral process when Trump is not on the ballot. And for whatever reasons, his endorsements and his attempts to motivate them to vote when he’s not on the ballot are not enough. He needs to be on the ballot for them get off their asses and vote.

 

[nycfan]

“… The story here isn’t just a “thermostatic shift” or voters bouncing back to the middle. It’s that the economic and electoral conditions, as well as the information environment, of 2024 have finally cleared, and people are reacting to what they’ve actually seen from Trump and the Republican Party.

These results tell us something deeper: voters care about affordability and freedom, and Democrats who focus on that message — whether they’re moderates or progressives — are winning.

Pollsters missed the mark again [the red wave pollsters badly missed in NJ and down ballot in VA], but the lessons are clear for 2026 and beyond: Polls do not always overstate support for Democrats, and basing your polling methodology on that premise is going to bite you in the ass one day.“

 

[UNCBAdookJD]

Republicans better get their gerrymanderers out of the shed and start gerrymandering, 'cause mid-terms might be a bloodbath.

Gerrymandering would only make it worse. Gerrymandering relies on consistent patterns, tidal wave elections break those patterns and break a gerrymander. Texas might outright flip if there is similar blue shift in TX as there was in Virginia last night. Dems gained in literally every single county and in some big bellwether counties the shift was enormous. Loudoun shifted 12 points D, Prince William shifted 16. While those are Northern Virginia, those are outer suburbs of DC that are very malleable. Prince William is very much where the working class voters of NOVA live. If the trend continues nationally, Texas and NC fucked themselves.

 

[altmin]

I wouldn't read too much into the Georgia thing as an unmistakable bell weather. there was an economic incentive for people too. The GOP controlled board was trying to dramatically increase rates (after years of increases already) to power data centers.

How two obscure races became a referendum on Georgia Power bills

Georgia Power customers have seen bills rise. Now they get to vote for two members on the state regulatory commission for the first time since 2020.

www.ajc.com

Fears over higher rates as Georgia moves to provide more electricity for AI datacenters

State’s Republican-dominated public service commission to decide on power expansion and prices, as Democrats vie for seats at table

www.theguardian.com

'
The Georgia Power company has made an unprecedented bid to the agency that oversees the utility for about 10 additional gigawatts of energy in the coming years – enough to power 8.3m homes, at an estimated cost of nearly $16bn, according to the Southern Environmental Law Center.


But those huge numbers are not primarily for homes or local businesses in Georgia. Instead about 80% of the company’s ask is driven by datacenters, primarily for artificial intelligence, according to Tom Krause, spokesperson for the state’s public service commission, or PSC.

It is the largest increase ever considered by the commission in a multiyear plan and comes as the Atlanta metro area led the nation in datacenter construction last year – a phenomenon playing out across the US and increasingly sparking protests and pushback. The PSC’s five members will be charged with deciding how much energy the state needs, when it’s needed and the best way to meet that need, Krause said.'

 

[GoHeelsweeeehoooo]

Last night was great but now we gotta keep up the energy and focus because next year's elections are even more important - if the Dems can get control of the house and the Senate Trump is basically a figurehead at that point

 

[rodoheel]

“… In Virginia and New Jersey, “economy‑first” voters sided with the Democratic gubernatorial candidates by a 65-35 margin — a sharp reversal from 2024, when economy‑focused voters broke roughly 80–20 for Trump.

Voters are fickle. For better or for worse, when they don't like how the economy is going, they just blame whoever is in charge. A year ago that was Biden; now it's Trump.

 

[Geisterfahrer]

Nope, should rub him in Republicans’ face. The Republican member of the House of Delegates who had the texts for three+ years and sat on them until it could be used as an October surprise lost her election and seat last night. This was a total repudiation of that bullshit. Meanwhile Jones won his election by more than the allegedly popular governor Youngkin did in 2021. Virginia and its massive federal workforce needs someone with a little fire in his belly to fight the administration for them, not some milquetoast dweeb who walks on eggshells and says all the right things.

Sure, but let’s lose the homicidal rhetoric, yes?

 

[rodoheel]

I think my biggest takeaway from all this, when also considering election results since 2016, is that Trump, when on the ballot, brings out a very substantial number of low-propensity voters who are unengaged in the electoral process when Trump is not on the ballot. And for whatever reasons, his endorsements and his attempts to motivate them to vote when he’s not on the ballot are not enough. He needs to be on the ballot for them get off their asses and vote.

The 2026 midterms will be a big test of this, because I think he'll be much more publicly all-in on the elections than he was for yesterday's elections. He'll probably do the manosphere podcast circuit again. Be encouraging people to vote all day. Frame it as existential for preserving his agenda. Etc.

 

[rodoheel]

Sure, but let’s lose the homicidal rhetoric, yes?

Yeah I think everyone has pretty much roundly condemned the homicidal rhetoric. But The info came out before election day, and voters elected him anyway, so making him pay some further pound of flesh seems pointless.

 

[aGDevil2k]

It's always the economy stupid.

Well that and his immigration rhetoric last year was never envisioned by many of his voters to be masked guys hanging out at schools.

 

[rodoheel]

“… The story here isn’t just a “thermostatic shift” or voters bouncing back to the middle. It’s that the economic and electoral conditions, as well as the information environment, of 2024 have finally cleared, and people are reacting to what they’ve actually seen from Trump and the Republican Party.

These results tell us something deeper: voters care about affordability and freedom, and Democrats who focus on that message — whether they’re moderates or progressives — are winning.

Pollsters missed the mark again [the red wave pollsters badly missed in NJ and down ballot in VA], but the lessons are clear for 2026 and beyond: Polls do not always overstate support for Democrats, and basing your polling methodology on that premise is going to bite you in the ass one day.“

Yeah, I'm still likely never going to lose my poll-related PTSD from the last few presidential elections (2016 in particular) but it really does seem that the "polls understate Republican support" thing mainly just applies to Trump personally. I expected Spanberger to win by 6-8 points and Sherrill to win by 3-4 points; these margins in those races really are astounding. Especially given the different background circumstances. You could write off Virginia alone as influenced heavily by bitter federal workers. But NJ doesn't have that issue. And while the VA Republican candidate distanced herself from Trump, the NJ guy embraced him. It made no difference - both of them got trounced.

 

[nycfan]

I have a note of caution for the justifiable Democratic exuberance about the results last night — using the top line Democratic margin in the VA governor's race likely overstates the blue shift from 2024 to 2025. The GOP put up a very weak candidate and Trump couldn’t even be bothered to provide her one of his dozens of generic Truth Social endorsements.

On the flip side, the Dems had a damaged candidate for AG who probably couldn’t have won absent a blue tsunami in the state. I don’t know what the data scientists would say but my instinct based on decades of close poll watching is that we should look at the Lt Gov race (or the average margin of victory for the three candidates) rather than just the top line to get a better sense of the blue shift adjusted for local candidate issues.

Spanberger +15
Hashmi +11
Jones + 5.5

Avg margin + 10.5

So the average margin and Hashmi margin are really close — I would peg that as the Virginia blue shift. D +10.5 or +11. That is still significantly better than the 2017 shift after Trump’s first election.

in 2016, Clinton was +5

in 2017 Northum was +9, LtGov +5 and AG +5.5 [avg +6.5]

in 2020, Biden was +10

In 2021, Youngkin was +2, Sears and Miyares were +1

in 2024, Harris was +6

 

[rodoheel]

I have a note of caution for the justifiable Democratic exuberance about the results last night — using the top line Democratic margin in the VA governor's race likely overstates the blue shift from 2024 to 2025. The GOP put up a very weak candidate and Trump couldn’t even be bothered to provide her one of his dozens of generic Truth Social endorsements.

On the flip side, the Dems had a damaged candidate for AG who probably couldn’t have won absent a blue tsunami in the state. I don’t know what the data scientists would say but my instinct based on decades of close poll watching is that we should look at the Lt Gov race (or the average margin of victory for the three candidates) rather than just the top line to get a better sense of the blue shift adjusted for local candidate issues.

Spanberger +15
Hashmi +11
Jones + 5.5

Avg margin + 10.5

So the average margin and Hashmi margin are really close — I would peg that as the Virginia blue shift. D +10.5 or +11.

in 2016, Clinton was +5

in 2017 Northum was +9, LtGov +5 and AG +5.5;

in 2020, Biden was +10

In 2021, Youngkin was +2, Sears and Miyares were +1

in 2024, Harris was +6

This is why I think it's important to consider NJ too. There you had an enthusiastically pro-Trump candidate who got Trump's endorsement, in a race where the candidates were vying to replace a somewhat unpopular D governor. A much different race than the VA governor's race; and it was still a blowout.

 

[aGDevil2k]

I have a note of caution for the justifiable Democratic exuberance about the results last night — using the top line Democratic margin in the VA governor's race likely overstates the blue shift from 2024 to 2025. The GOP put up a very weak candidate and Trump couldn’t even be bothered to provide her one of his dozens of generic Truth Social endorsements.

On the flip side, the Dems had a damaged candidate for AG who probably couldn’t have won absent a blue tsunami in the state. I don’t know what the data scientists would say but my instinct based on decades of close poll watching is that we should look at the Lt Gov race (or the average margin of victory for the three candidates) rather than just the top line to get a better sense of the blue shift adjusted for local candidate issues.

Spanberger +15
Hashmi +11
Jones + 5.5

Avg margin + 10.5

So the average margin and Hashmi margin are really close — I would peg that as the Virginia blue shift. D +10.5 or +11. That is still significantly better than the 2017 shift after Trump’s first election.

in 2016, Clinton was +5

in 2017 Northum was +9, LtGov +5 and AG +5.5 [avg +6.5]

in 2020, Biden was +10

In 2021, Youngkin was +2, Sears and Miyares were +1

in 2024, Harris was +6

Hashmi is a muslim woman. In a southern state.
Let that sink in.

 

[Centerpiece]

Not only did Dems win the Governor, Lt Governor, and AG races in Virginia, it looks like they substantially increased their majority in the House of Delegates, from 51 (out of 100) to perhaps as much as 64.

Virginia is for Lovers

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

“… If you read the pollsters, the shutdown was a big factor, negative for Republicans. They say that I wasn't on the ballot was the biggest factor. I don't know about that, but I was honored that they said that."