2025 & 2026 Elections | Blue Wave 2025 results

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Icky Mettle said:
I think my biggest takeaway from all this, when also considering election results since 2016, is that Trump, when on the ballot, brings out a very substantial number of low-propensity voters who are unengaged in the electoral process when Trump is not on the ballot. And for whatever reasons, his endorsements and his attempts to motivate them to vote when he’s not on the ballot are not enough. He needs to be on the ballot for them get off their asses and vote.
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With 2020 being a huge outlier in this thinking. Where were the Trump voters when he was on the ballot then? Biden got over 81 million votes that year. Trump, in 2024's so-called "landslide mandate" only got 77 million. But other than that, you are spot on.
 
Centerpiece said:
With 2020 being a huge outlier in this thinking. Where were the Trump voters when he was on the ballot then? Biden got over 81 million votes that year. Trump, in 2024's so-called "landslide mandate" only got 77 million. But other than that, you are spot on.
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I don't think 2020 is necessarily an outlier in that respect. That was the only election where Trump was an incumbent, so "Trump turns out voters other people can't" was counterbalanced by "the reality of Trump governing is a mess and there was a pandemic and economic crisis that voters blamed on the person in charge." Trump's ability to inspire personal loyalty is probably the only reason that election ended up being remotely close.
 
rodoheel said:
I don't think 2020 is necessarily an outlier in that respect. That was the only election where Trump was an incumbent, so "Trump turns out voters other people can't" was counterbalanced by "the reality of Trump governing is a mess and there was a pandemic and economic crisis that voters blamed on the person in charge." Trump's ability to inspire personal loyalty is probably the only reason that election ended up being remotely close.
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Agree.

Trump still had a giant turnout in 20. It's just that he had driven the country so hard into the ditch and COVID was so bad that the Dems also had a record turnout. If not for how bad COVID was, he would have won.
 
Jay Jones is going to end up outperforming Kamala in Virginia. I guess those text messages were a more winning message to Dems than palling around with Liz Cheney!!
 
Centerpiece said:
With 2020 being a huge outlier in this thinking. Where were the Trump voters when he was on the ballot then? Biden got over 81 million votes that year. Trump, in 2024's so-called "landslide mandate" only got 77 million. But other than that, you are spot on.
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But in 2020, Trump got more votes than he did in 2016. He still got huge turnout. Those 74 million+ votes equaled the second highest vote total ever at the time, outdone only by the 81 million+ votes for Biden that same year. The pro-Dem turnout just happened be huge that year.
 
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Centerpiece said:
With 2020 being a huge outlier in this thinking. Where were the Trump voters when he was on the ballot then? Biden got over 81 million votes that year. Trump, in 2024's so-called "landslide mandate" only got 77 million. But other than that, you are spot on.
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Because there are just enough people that arent MAGAs but have horrific short-term memories and they forgot how bad Trump 1 was. So while things sucked for inflation under Biden (and globally), they totally forgot about why they hated Trump the first time.
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
Agree.

Trump still had a giant turnout in 20. It's just that he had driven the country so hard into the ditch and COVID was so bad that the Dems also had a record turnout. If not for how bad COVID was, he would have won.
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Getting slightly off-topic, but I don’t think it was Covid that doomed Trump (although it didn’t help him at all). His administration was a shitshow before that and there was a lot of anti-Trump sentiment prior to Covid. His approval rating at the end of 2019 was 43% vs. 54% disapproval.
 
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