Congress Catch-All | Laken Riley Act is first bill passed by House

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Also posted a longer passage in the Mass deportation thread, but more broadly relevant here:

www.semafor.com

Republicans’ real immigration dilemma: How big to go in Congress | Semafor

Donald Trump is wading into a fight over highly-skilled worker visas, but there’s a bigger debate already underway.
www.semafor.com www.semafor.com

Republicans’ real immigration dilemma: How big to go in Congress​


“… The GOP is preparing to take up an infusion of border security money as soon as this month, but it hasn’t settled on how broadly to craft that bill. There’s a twist: To get an immigration bill done without a filibuster, Republicans may need to bend or even break some of the Senate rules.

… To get it to Trump’s desk without having to seek Democratic votes or changing Senate precedent, however, the GOP will need to limit any policy changes they add to their bill — a central tenet of the filibuster protections they plan to use.

… “I’ve heard rumors that there is going to be a movement to pressure Senate Republicans to overrule the parliamentarian in order to enact policy in reconciliation,” retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., told Semafor.

Sinema warned that doing so would be “a backdoor elimination of the filibuster, and very dangerous.”

While the filibuster-proof reconciliation rules are designed to limit bills to fiscal policy only, Republicans have plenty of reasons to want to push the boundaries.

Their biggest motivation is the staying power of laws: Trump will have broad sway over many executive actions on immigration, but President Joe Biden dismantled some of Trump’s first-term moves, and a future Democratic president could do the same. …”
 

Johnson doesn’t have the votes to remain speaker. But his allies insist it’s trending his way.​

Donald Trump has restated his backing, and some holdouts have indicated they plan to back Johnson on Friday.


“… In addition to Gosar, Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), a close ally of Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), said on Thursday that he’s backing Johnson, noting that “Trump wants Speaker Johnson.” Incoming Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), who is likely to join the Freedom Caucus, also pointed to Trump’s backing, saying “Mike’s the guy.”

The speakership vote will be the first test of House Republicans’ ability to unify this year, as they hope to achieve ambitious legislative goals on the border, energy and taxes with full control of Congress and the White House. As the Johnson drama shows, Trump’s backing doesn’t necessarily mean Republicans can pass their priorities, given an incredibly narrow margin in the House and a wide ideological range among GOP lawmakers.

Still, Johnson and his allies are putting Trump at the center of their two main arguments as they try to sway the holdouts.

First, they point out that a messy, drawn-out speaker's race risks a delay in certifying Trump’s presidential win on Jan. 6.

Second, if Republicans are consumed with trying to iron out their own leadership it overshadows the start of the second Trump administration, right at a time when leaders want to look unified.

In recent weeks, Trump has privately warned GOP lawmakers against doing anything that takes away from the start of his second presidency, according to one GOP lawmaker who has spoken with him, granted anonymity to speak frankly.

And his allies are also pointing out the conference has the same problem it did after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted, when Johnson first rose to the perch. All the potential alternatives — such as Majority Leader Steve Scalise, GOP Whip Tom Emmer (Minn.) and Jordan — still have problems that would prevent them from getting the requisite votes. Even some of Johnson’s skeptics acknowledge it’s a significant problem. …”
 


“… acknowledgement of our 129 year most consequential Presidential Election!!”???
 
uncmba said:
How many rounds do we think this shit show will go?
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Between one and a baker’s dozen. I think Johnson will negotiate rules that permit his future defenestration to get the vote today and they’ll shove him out a window the first bump in the road sometime later this year.
 
uncmba said:
How many rounds do we think this shit show will go?
Click to expand...
I think it will be relatively modest. They all know Trump wants it done quickly and has approved of Johnson for now but there’s no way some of these assholes refrain from peacocking. I figure there will be a mini protest among the budget hawk/libertarian faction and a symbolic shot across the bow vote for Scalise or Jordan to make sure Johnson knows he’s on a short leash. I’ll go with three rounds.
 
BlooVooDoo said:
I think it will be relatively modest. They all know Trump wants it done quickly and has approved of Johnson for now but there’s no way some of these assholes refrain from peacocking. I figure there will be a mini protest among the budget hawk/libertarian faction and a symbolic shot across the bow vote for Scalise or Jordan to make sure Johnson knows he’s on a short leash. I’ll go with three rounds.
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That seems most likely, but I have learned to never underestimate the abject stupidity of the House Republican caucus.
 

“… there is a roundabout way to get around the need for 218 votes. A small number of Republicans could vote “present,” which would lower the majority vote threshold. That is how Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California) was elected speaker two years ago.

It’s unclear whether Johnson has tried to convince holdouts to vote “present” rather than against his nomination.

… Johnson worked the phones over the holiday break from Louisiana to get an understanding of why roughly a half dozen Republicans remained undecided about whether to support his bid. He spent Thursday in the Capitol and met for more than two hours with several holdouts. Negotiations continued through the evening as several lawmakers sought firm commitments from Johnson to pass conservative bills without relying on Democrats. …”

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Such a dumb, impossible demand when you start with a 1-vote majority that will eventually be about 3 votes (depending on absences etc).
 
nycfan said:

“… there is a roundabout way to get around the need for 218 votes. A small number of Republicans could vote “present,” which would lower the majority vote threshold. That is how Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California) was elected speaker two years ago.

It’s unclear whether Johnson has tried to convince holdouts to vote “present” rather than against his nomination.

… Johnson worked the phones over the holiday break from Louisiana to get an understanding of why roughly a half dozen Republicans remained undecided about whether to support his bid. He spent Thursday in the Capitol and met for more than two hours with several holdouts. Negotiations continued through the evening as several lawmakers sought firm commitments from Johnson to pass conservative bills without relying on Democrats. …”

——
Such a dumb, impossible demand when you start with a 1-vote majority that will eventually be about 3 votes (depending on absences etc).
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That's what happens when your party focuses on electing legislative terrorists rather than actual legislators. Chickens coming home to roost.
 
(Continued)

“… If there’s no elected speaker, House members cannot be sworn into office, and the chamber cannot proceed with its business. This means that, if there’s no one in the seat by Jan. 6, the chamber will not be able to certify the results of the 2024 election for Donald Trump — a largely ceremonial but necessary step.

However, the House could adopt a resolution naming a temporary speaker or caretaker of the House that would serve the chamber for limited purposes such as certifying the results of the election, Daniel Schuman, executive director of the American Governance Institute, noted.

“Republicans are not going to want to do anything that could possibly interfere with the counting of electoral votes for Trump,” he said. “And the role of the speaker in that process is pretty limited, so they could have the acting clerk play that role [or] they could go and have Mike Johnson, they could just extend him for a week.”

… Former president Jimmy Carter’s remains are expected to lie in state at the Capitol Rotunda from Jan. 7 to the morning of Jan. 9, when his state funeral will be held. The House has to pass a resolution to allow the ceremony to occur. While that vote is expected to be widely bipartisan, if there is no speaker, the House cannot carry out the process.

But Thomas Wickham, a former House parliamentarian, told The Washington Post that while a House vote is traditionally required to hold a lying-in-state, there are other ways in which the ceremony could be approved. …”

——
Pretty sure that the J6 certification is the only reason Trump got involved ahead of time. Otherwise he seems to like the kind of drama/chaos that might have unfolded …
 
(Cont’d)

“… More pressing for the House, however, is the issue of the debt ceiling — Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen warned last week that the U.S. has less than three weeks to raise its debt limit before it will need to take “extraordinary measures” to sustain federal operations.

Failing to lift the debt limit could have catastrophic consequences for the global economy, as the U.S. government has never before defaulted on its debt obligations.

Allies of Johnson in the House are warning their Republican colleagues that they’re better off not delaying the selection of a speaker, arguing that it will only delay the implementation of Republican priorities.

Hard-liners, however, want Johnson to outline a plan for spending cuts in exchange for lifting the debt ceiling. …”
 
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