Crypto crashing - reversed by Crypto Reserve tweet

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It seems to me that you've been getting some crypto "education." The first and only rule about crypto education is that it's bullshit top to bottom. Anyone who is a crypto enthusiast, or any site trying to explain how to invest in crypto, is telling you lies.

Let's look at these properties of money. A unit of account? That's not an independent property. It follows from a medium of exchange. If you can trade with it, it means it has cardinality (i.e. it can be counted and manipulated arithmetically), and cardinality is all that is needed for being a unit of account. I can't think of anything that can't be a unit of account. You can quote prices in oak-tree equivalents, or the price of weather derivatives traded on the Singapore futures market. I suppose you can't quote prices in "dreams" but you can't use dreams for exchange either.

So why is it there? Because having three properties of money makes it seem more professional. The old rule of three. If there are only two, people might ask, "why is store of value important?" But people don't always want to put mental effort into debunking two requirements. They are more willing to accept a list of three as an expert evaluation rather than a list of two. And this isn't about stupidity. Not everyone is a weirdo like me who scrutinizes virtually every statement made to me or I make for its truth. Most people like to chill sometimes, and they don't necessarily like to spend their free time thinking about currencies (note: being a professor meant that I could get paid for thinking about them). But the upshot of this is that people are vulnerable to scams from con artists who present a veneer of respectable theory when it's all bullshit.

All right, so the unit of account is silly, and maybe the list is more marketing than science, but so what? It's that store of value piece. Why is that important? Because it leads to the next step: scarcity is the store of value. This is supposedly why bitcoin is so great: its supply is limited. There are many problems here:

1. Let's assume that scarcity is necessary for having value. That doesn't mean scarcity is the source of value, which is what the crypto people want you to believe. It doesn't mean that everything that is scarce is valuable. I've never seen anyone create a sculpture out of human vomit, and I doubt one exists. So if I made one, it would be extremely scarce. I also think I would have a lot of trouble selling it.

2. It is not in fact true that scarcity is necessary for value. I suppose that we could say that something that is truly infinite might not be valuable, but aside from weird math hypotheticals, let's look. There are way more shares of Apple stock in circulation now than 30 years ago. Does that mean they are less valuable? Of course not. Leaded gasoline is much rarer than it once was. Is it more valuable? It is not.

The "scarcity creates value" line is the most pernicious and fraudulent of the contentions. So much "analysis" is premised on this nonsense. Invariably that analysis tells you how to use all sorts of bizarre metrics that have no bearing on the real world to determine that crypto will go up in value.

3. As a technical matter, there's no sense in which crypto is "scarce." First, there are no limitations on the number of crypto tokens that can be started. In what way are crypto tokens not fungible? What value do I get out of DOGE coin that I wouldn't get our of Litecoin or any number of other tokens? None. As importantly, everything that is infinitely divisible (which bitcoin promoters love to trumpet) has no intrinsic scarcity. The set of rational numbers between 0 and 1 is countably infinite, the same as the set of all rational numbers period. So if there's an infinite number of values that a currency can have, there's the same number of values for bitcoin.

Put it all together, and there's only one criterion for money: it's a medium of exchange. In fact, it works better when its value is entirely set by fiat as opposed to having "intrinsic" value. Intrinsic value gold coins, for instance, tend to get smaller and smaller over the years. Why? Because everyone has incentive to scrape off just a bit of the coin before using it. If the coin is 10 cents because the government says it's 10 cents, we don't have this problem.

But the idea that money is nothing but a medium of exchange destroys a lot of crypto narratives about its "value" so they wrap it in all this bullshit and ask people to slurp it up.
Again, in this fantasy world of "generally accepted" crypto...I think there can't be all these numbers of coins out there...memecoins, if you will. They're all basically "pump and dump" schemes, I agree with that part. I think you'd have to setting on one or two. One that is actually scalable (maybe ETH or ADA) and one "store of value" (Bitcoin). I know it still doesn't address all the issues you are laying out.

I read a couple books back in 2018 while I was laid up after surgery, which kept me interested. They were mostly "pro crypto" but were also very clear about the drawbacks and reasons why it couldn't work. I'm not interested in listening to crypto bros. They're just another reason why I think it could never work, just parasites, trying to make a quick buck.
 
I have seen some persons in El Salvador (which has made all sorts of wild bets on crypto) speculate that crypto could be a game changer for remittances. The working theory is that crypto could help against current friction (fees the money senders charge, KYC limitations) as well as possible future roadblocks (there has been a growing feeling that the Trump admin could slap remittances with really high taxes). That still hasn't played out at a large scale in ES which receives billions in remittances per year and has tried to push out the crypto payments web.
Bitcoin has been used for remittances since the very beginning. That's always been its primary use case. The problem is that the vast majority of those remittances are transfers between drug cartels and/or human traffickers.

Every poor inner city neighborhood I've visited in the last ten years has a bitcoin ATM. I'll let you decide why that is. I've never looked into it, but my guess is that the number of bitcoin ATMs is highly correlated with the amount of nearby drug activity.
 
Again, in this fantasy world of "generally accepted" crypto...I think there can't be all these numbers of coins out there...memecoins, if you will. They're all basically "pump and dump" schemes, I agree with that part. I think you'd have to setting on one or two. One that is actually scalable (maybe ETH or ADA) and one "store of value" (Bitcoin). I know it still doesn't address all the issues you are laying out.

I read a couple books back in 2018 while I was laid up after surgery, which kept me interested. They were mostly "pro crypto" but were also very clear about the drawbacks and reasons why it couldn't work. I'm not interested in listening to crypto bros. They're just another reason why I think it could never work, just parasites, trying to make a quick buck.
The better "pro crypto" messaging does that. It's the same way that infomercials will often qualify their sales pitches. "You wouldn't use this cleaning product for every single cleaning need, but it's ideal for the vast majority of cleaning tasks." I know a fair amount about this as someone who taught corporate finance for a decade. As a general rule, I would say that everything "pro crypto" is mostly bullshit. They are all crypto bros in the end. Just the packaging is different.

Even if you have only one uber-crypto that is the optimal crypto system, why would you prefer it over money? Dollars have value because you can pay your taxes with them. If you can't pay your taxes in bitcoin, then that's a disadvantage for bitcoin. What advantage does it offer to make up for it? Again, if you're going to need to convert the bitcoin into dollars, why even bother with the bitcoin?

The price of bitcoin is very tightly correlated to the NASDAQ. That suggests that, in the real world, it functions almost purely as speculation.
 
At the end of the day, this is all dependant upon the next investor (fool?) willing to convert their current currency they can use to literally buy anything into a digital holding with zero underlying value or use case beyond the existence of the next investor (fool?) willing to convert their current currency... ad infinitum.

It is true at the most objective view that the US Dollar or any stock investments rely on the same consumer confidence and similar behaviors but they are also subject to regular reporting on the state of the US economy via a vis the rest of the world and reports on the company and it's real world value. Crypto has no reality, only emotion. Again, the fact that any fool can create a crypto and try to sell it to other fools just proves the point in spades.
 
At the end of the day, this is all dependant upon the next investor (fool?) willing to convert their current currency they can use to literally buy anything into a digital holding with zero underlying value or use case beyond the existence of the next investor (fool?) willing to convert their current currency... ad infinitum.

It is true at the most objective view that the US Dollar or any stock investments rely on the same consumer confidence and similar behaviors but they are also subject to regular reporting on the state of the US economy via a vis the rest of the world and reports on the company and it's real world value. Crypto has no reality, only emotion. Again, the fact that any fool can create a crypto and try to sell it to other fools just proves the point in spades.
Stocks usually have intrinsic value. They always have option value.

As for the first point, the vexing issue is: why can't that go on forever? Why do bubbles have to crash?
 
The crypto, the crypto, the crypto is on fire
The crypto, the crypto, the crypto is on fire
The crypto, the crypto, the crypto is on fire
We don't need no water, let the motherfucker burn
Burn motherfucker, burn
 
Bitcoin has been used for remittances since the very beginning. That's always been its primary use case. The problem is that the vast majority of those remittances are transfers between drug cartels and/or human traffickers.

Every poor inner city neighborhood I've visited in the last ten years has a bitcoin ATM. I'll let you decide why that is. I've never looked into it, but my guess is that the number of bitcoin ATMs is highly correlated with the amount of nearby drug activity.

While im sure bitcoin is very popular in the drug trade/money launder racket, not all remittances spring from illegal activity...so its not out of reason that legit remittances may be following the bitcoin path.
 

Bitcoin At A ‘Critical Juncture’ As Crypto Braces For a ‘Major’ Price ‘Catalyst’​



“… The bitcoin price plummeted to lows of around $85,000 per bitcoin on Tuesday, down 21% from its all-time high of almost $110,000 and putting it in correction territory. However, bitcoin has bounced back as the market readies for a major legislation update teased by bitcoin-backing U.S. senator Cynthia Lummis.
… Meanwhile, the market is braced for the release of artificial intelligence poster boy Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings after Wednesday’s market close, with a strong expectations beat likely to hand support to the bitcoin price and crypto markets—though a miss could reignite the bitcoin price meltdown. …”
 
not all remittances spring from illegal activity
Of course not. But if the system can't distinguish between money laundering and sending money home to family, then it's a bad system. The money laundering will also dwarf the legit remittances.
 
I actually had this very question at a board meeting...how do you monitor illegal activity. There are some customer verification services emerging for crypto. Have not gone down the rabbit hole of how they work exactly to detect illicit activity.

And yes, illicit activity dwarfs regular remittance at this point.
 
The greatest proponents of BitCoin are holders of Bitcoin.
just like all the great pyramid schemes

i live in a small town that is fraught with drug use and abuse. is that the reason there are bitcoin atms everywhere. given the origins of bitcoin id have to say yes and that people who own bitcoin have at least one type of blood on their hands but as we see with many americans its all about the money justified many different ways
 

Bitcoin At A ‘Critical Juncture’ As Crypto Braces For a ‘Major’ Price ‘Catalyst’​



“… The bitcoin price plummeted to lows of around $85,000 per bitcoin on Tuesday, down 21% from its all-time high of almost $110,000 and putting it in correction territory. However, bitcoin has bounced back as the market readies for a major legislation update teased by bitcoin-backing U.S. senator Cynthia Lummis.
… Meanwhile, the market is braced for the release of artificial intelligence poster boy Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings after Wednesday’s market close, with a strong expectations beat likely to hand support to the bitcoin price and crypto markets—though a miss could reignite the bitcoin price meltdown. …”

Nvidia Is Far From Running Out of Road​

New Blackwell chip is off to a roaring start, while hit to profit margins should be short-lived​


“… Nvidia’s fiscal fourth-quarter report late Wednesday continued the AI titan’s string of impressive results. Blowout spending on generative artificial intelligence continues to drive the company once primarily known for its PC gaming chips. Nvidia’s latest AI chip family, called Blackwell, racked up $11 billion in sales in its first quarter of shipping in volume, far ahead of the $3.5 billion analysts expected, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha. …”

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Impact on crypto beyond quick boost last night TBD as investors weight recession risks:

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SEC says meme coins not subject to securities regulations​

Trump’s meme coin was valued at more than $74 before falling to about $12.


“… According to the SEC, the coins are more akin to "collectibles" and don't fall under the category of securities under federal law, likely shielding companies like the one behind $TRUMP from potential litigation.

… "Meme coins typically are purchased for entertainment, social interaction, and cultural purposes, and their value is driven primarily by market demand and speculation. In this regard, meme coins are akin to collectibles," the SEC said in a statement from its division of corporate finance. …”
 
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