Economic News | CPI cools to 2.8%

[superrific]

I didn't know you were that kind of an asshole. Geez.

It's not being an asshole. The Pubs losing the 2026 election is vital for the long-term health of our country. I didn't pick this fight. It's not my fault that Trump is destroying America. He has to be stopped. If that means a bunch of people who FA'd now have to FO, so be it. I'd say my position is in the majority, especially on this board.

 

[Kraftyheel89]

Nice to see a good inflation reading for February. If the other inflation measures come in the same later this month, that is great.

However, (and a very BIG however) these measures are 2 to 6 weeks old data. They are for February. That was all before the tariff nonsense hit as well as the Federal chainsaw job whacking by fuhrer Musk.

That data will not begin to show until March and April data is released. Also, this SHOULD be further proof, and take away the excuse that Trump just inherited all these problems from Biden. Of course MAGA will still believe it because they are a low info spoon fed cult.

 

[superrific]

So there would be a bit of a "detox" period as we adjust to less government spending. That's my only point. I don't find the administration's statement wild. The government spending $900 billion less than they did in the previous year is a big deal.

Where are you getting the government spending $900B less than the previous year? If you're talking about current events specifically, where are you getting that money?

Anyway:

1. The detox story isn't being applied to a reduction in spending. There has been no meaningful reduction, and yet the economy is struggling and that's the detox they are referring to.

But it's not detox at all. This isn't a case where money is being reallocated to more productive uses. What we are seeing right now is just stupid economic policy that is all loss. All the uncertainty is just pure loss. All the firings of employees who will eventually have to be hired back is pure loss. The tariffs are pure loss.

2. The biggest problem is putting in a contractionary fiscal policy at the same time as a contractionary trade policy. These effects will stack and interact. If you don't do tariffs, maybe the economy can adjust to the contraction. But if you're laying off federal workers hoping that they are going to find employment in the private sector, but the private sector isn't hiring because they don't know what their business is going to be or how their markets will be organized -- and in fact, if the private sector is shedding jobs because of tariff-induced plant closures -- then the policy effect is a lot bigger than detox. I mean, you can detox in many ways, including suicide. While what we're seeing is not yet suicide (and hopefully never will be), it ain't Betty Ford either.

 

[HintonJamesHeel]

Take back some massive tax cuts also. Right?

Yes - we have to. There’s so many things that should be done.

 

[Calheel]

Yes - we have to. There’s so many things that should be done.

There is zero political will or constituency for fiscal responsibility. It won't happen. The only chance of balancing the budget is restoring world order and growing the economy. That is what happened under Clinton. Absent a peace dividend, we aren't getting our fiscal house in order.

 

[StrangePackage]

Is this sarcastic? I want the economy to crash and burn. We have a big election coming up in the Senate in 2026, and Dems need to pick up several seats to have a lever of control over Trump's fuckery. A crashed economy is the best way to make that happen. We have huge pickup opportunities in Maine and NC, which are probably lean-D in an off year election. But we need more. We need to pick off JD Vance's seat, for instance. Maybe Joni Ernst in IA? Those seats are in play in a wrecked economy with high inflation. Probably not in a decent economy.

I would rather personally be wrong about what I believe will happen then to doom millions of my fellow countryfolk to bread lines.

I don't think I'm wrong but if those are the choices I would much rather be wrong.

 

[superrific]

I would rather personally be wrong about what I believe will happen then to doom millions of my fellow countryfolk to bread lines.

I don't think I'm wrong but if those are the choices I would much rather be wrong.

I would rather be personally wrong as well, but the problem so far is that I've been right.

Anyway, it's not "pain to Americans" against "me being wrong." It's "pain to Americans in the short term" versus "destruction of America and/or its standing in the world."

The US will suffer from Trump tariffs long-term. Of that I am certain. So it's better that the tariffs hit now while the man who brought the pain is still in charge. And of course the shredding of the constitution is a big concern, meaning we cannot let Trump just fill judicial seats with crazies.

 

[heelinhell]

That is promising. Let us all hope the trend continues.

I think this may be a canary in the coal mine forecasting an ongoing decrease in consumer demand coupled with anticipated spikes in unemployment.

The only question is will the imposition of Trump tariffs create stagflation going forward.

 

[Silence Dogood]

Nice to see a good inflation reading for February. If the other inflation measures come in the same later this month, that is great.

However, (and a very BIG however) these measures are 2 to 6 weeks old data. They are for February. That was all before the tariff nonsense hit as well as the Federal chainsaw job whacking by fuhrer Musk.

That data will not begin to show until March and April data is released. Also, this SHOULD be further proof, and take away the excuse that Trump just inherited all these problems from Biden. Of course MAGA will still believe it because they are a low info spoon fed cult.

You do realize cutting govt spending helps inflation right?

 

[UNCMSinLS]

Not to sound too tinfoil-hat here, but who releases inflation and job numbers? The Bureau of Labor Statistics? Are they under the purview of DOGE? I'm wondering if there will be a time in the near future when these numbers will be meaningless on the federal level.

 

[heelinhell]

You do realize cutting govt spending helps inflation right?

so does high unemployment and decrease in consumer demand "help" inflation...

 

[Calheel]

I would rather be personally wrong as well, but the problem so far is that I've been right.

Anyway, it's not "pain to Americans" against "me being wrong." It's "pain to Americans in the short term" versus "destruction of America and/or its standing in the world."

The US will suffer from Trump tariffs long-term. Of that I am certain. So it's better that the tariffs hit now while the man who brought the pain is still in charge. And of course the shredding of the constitution is a big concern, meaning we cannot let Trump just fill judicial seats with crazies.

So Trump and Super are basically on the same page.

They are both claiming we will go through short term pain before we can start winning again.

 

[Kraftyheel89]

You do realize cutting govt spending helps inflation right?

The amount of reduced gov spending will be negligible in the big scheme of things. Over 2/3 of the budget goes to SS, Medicare, Medicaid and defense spending. Certainly, overhead and pay can be cut in those areas, but the bulk still goes out.

Also, the inflation caused by tariffs, and increasing unemployment, and even more tax cuts, will greatly outweigh those effects.

Clinton was the only one that got it right in many decades. Reduce spending (wisely and in a well planned manner) coupled with INCREASED tax rates.

 

[superrific]

So Trump and Super are basically on the same page.

They are both claiming we will go through short term pain before we can start winning again.

I hope this is a joke. We wouldn't have to go through any pain but for Trump's idiocy.

 

[superrific]

You do realize cutting govt spending helps inflation right?

It doesn't. Especially since, as Krafty noted, the amount of spending being cut is negligible.

To the extent that deficits are inflationary (and there's little evidence for that, absent the weird post-pandemic environment), it's the deficit. The GOP is not planning on reducing the deficit. They are planning to increase it by a lot.

 

[superrific]

Not to sound too tinfoil-hat here, but who releases inflation and job numbers? The Bureau of Labor Statistics? Are they under the purview of DOGE? I'm wondering if there will be a time in the near future when these numbers will be meaningless on the federal level.

Maybe they could monkey around with it long-term, but people who know how these reports are made have said they can't be faked without it being obvious.

 

[Calheel]

I hope this is a joke. We wouldn't have to go through any pain but for Trump's idiocy.

Sort of. You are both saying that we will have short-term economic pain. He is just saying that the pain is needed to flush out the Biden recession and you are saying that the pain is needed to get democrats in charge. Different paths, but same prediction.

 

[sringwal]

I would rather personally be wrong about what I believe will happen then to doom millions of my fellow countryfolk to bread lines.

I don't think I'm wrong but if those are the choices I would much rather be wrong.

I'm in the same boat. I work with too many students whose families didn't, or couldn't vote for Trump who will be on the front lines if things go wrong. Many of them are refugees whose parents fought alongside American soldiers, and would not be safe if they were forced to return to their home countries.

 

[superrific]

I'm in the same boat. I work with too many students whose families didn't, or couldn't vote for Trump who will be on the front lines if things go wrong. Many of them are refugees whose parents fought alongside American soldiers, and would not be safe if they were forced to return to their home countries.

Right. That's a reason to hope the Dems recapture Congress ASAP.

 

[superrific]

Sort of. You are both saying that we will have short-term economic pain. He is just saying that the pain is needed to flush out the Biden recession and you are saying that the pain is needed to get democrats in charge. Different paths, but same prediction.

My fears and thoughts are based in reality. That seems like a big difference.