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[superrific]

Schumer isn't only protecting federal workers. Look, there's no playbook here. I wanted the Dems to use the filibuster, but there are risks in that:

1. The courts are currently our best option of resistance. Risking a judicial shutdown is self-defeating.
2. The GOP wants the government shut down. Very good chance they won't reopen it. Also, if we do shut it down, then the reopening bill would be subject to presidential veto. And we know Trump wants it shut down, because Trump has no intention of stopping. Shutting down the government would allow him to rampage with little resistance whatsoever.
3. What Trump and Musk are doing is exceedingly unpopular, and it's going to get more so. We don't need to blur the lines of accountability. My sense is that the lines won't be blurred: people will do what they always do, and blame the party in power. But we don't know if that's what will happen.
4. There are a lot of other people, besides government workers, who would suffer from an extended shutdown and again, there's no reason to think that it would reopen any time soon.

The debt ceiling is a better opportunity, because the GOP doesn't want to crash the financial system. Well, most of the GOP, at least.

I'm really of two minds here. I can see the arguments both ways.

 

[superrific]

Schumer’s buddies on Wall Street seem to be behind this utter disarmament by the Democrats. Is it any surprise that Schumer and Gillibrand seem to be the main ones pushing to vote for cloture?

I am positive that Schumer's buddies on Wall Street are not behind this. Schumer's buddies on Wall Street definitely understand the long-term damage of MAGA. I would very much doubt there are any liberal folks on Wall Street who would are saying, "yeah, let's keep the government open so Trump can continue wrecking the economy." They are thinking about how to defeat Trump.

You've got to get over the reflexive habit to blame "Wall Street" for everything that happens.

There are no good answers here.

 

[Paine]

What’s the argument for Trump wanting a shutdown? It seems to me that the idea of Trump or Musk wanting a shutdown was a GOP head fake. Otherwise, why did they whip the votes so hard for the CR in the House? Why did Vance come out and say the GOP would be blamed for a shutdown?

I understand it’s a tough spot for Senate Dems, but I really do think the GOP would’ve taken the blame for the shutdown and not gotten anything out of it more than what they’re already doing. We’ve effectively been in a rolling govt shutdown since Trump came into office. The critical mass of a real government shutdown could’ve given Dems more leverage IMO.

 

[superrific]

The problem is that if Dems can't explain to voters what they're actually going to stand up for, voters will see no reason to choose them as an alternative to the Republican arsonists burning the government down.

But is this how politics really works? What alternative did the GOP present in '10? None. They just capitalized on anger. Midterms are about anger at the party in control.

And anyway, whatever the Dems say now would be forgotten before next year anyway.

 

[Paine]

I am positive that Schumer's buddies on Wall Street are not behind this. Schumer's buddies on Wall Street definitely understand the long-term damage of MAGA. I would very much doubt there are any liberal folks on Wall Street who would are saying, "yeah, let's keep the government open so Trump can continue wrecking the economy." They are thinking about how to defeat Trump.

You've got to get over the reflexive habit to blame "Wall Street" for everything that happens.

There are no good answers here.

I’m just thinking in terms of the stock market. It would tank even more with a shutdown.

 

[superrific]

What’s the argument for Trump wanting a shutdown? It seems to me that the idea of Trump or Musk wanting a shutdown was a GOP head fake. Otherwise, why did they whip the votes so hard for the CR in the House? Why did Vance come out and say the GOP would be blamed for a shutdown?

I understand it’s a tough spot for Senate Dems, but I really do think the GOP would’ve taken the blame for the shutdown and not gotten anything out of it more than what they’re already doing. We’ve effectively been in a rolling govt shutdown since Trump came into office. The critical mass of a real government shutdown could’ve given Dems more leverage IMO.

Trump wants a shut down so he can declare an emergency and then arrogate all power to himself. That seems to have been a real concern of Whitehouse. It's not that Trump wants the government closed, per se. He just doesn't want to be bound by any laws. And the courts being out of session would be potentially catastrophic. It's the one locus of power that's actually able to resist.

I think you answered your own question: the GOP would be blamed for a shutdown had the House utterly failed. I think the GOP would be blamed for the whole thing, but do we know that?

Here's my read of the entire macro-political situation: Trump badly wants a Reichstag fire. He's itching so hard for something, anything that will give him an opportunity to declare a national emergency and then martial law. That's why he and his people are being especially provocative, even for them. I mean, he's declaring an "invasion" from migrants because he has no patience.

There's also a risk that the Pubs in the Senate will just get rid of the filibuster if they really wanted to pass the bill. While I support getting rid of it, obviously now is the very worst time for that to happen. I'm kind of shocked it hasn't happened yet.

Also, there's the not-insignificant matter of DC. Apparently Schumer has gotten an agreement for a vote on whether to restore DC's funding, and I assume that will pass easily. If Dems don't look out for DC, who will?

 

[superrific]

I’m just thinking in terms of the stock market. It would tank even more with a shutdown.

The people on Wall Street that might be advising Schumer don't really give a fuck about what the stock market does over the next two weeks or whatever. They have longer term horizons. And they realize the existential threat Trump poses to financial markets everywhere, and the global economy.

Whatever the market would do in a shutdown would pale in comparison to what the market would do if Trump assumes dictatorial powers.

 

[Paine]

Complex situation for sure. I hope this is the right choice. Might end Schumer’s career.

 

[superrific]

Complex situation for sure. I hope this is the right choice. Might end Schumer’s career.

He's 74. He might be wrapping up his career anyway. I think the Dems are trying to get the old guard out -- hence Tina Smith and Maggie Hassan.

I think Schumer has been so visible on this because he wants to be the heat sink. Let the liberals train their fire on him, as he's headed out the door, and not take aim at Cortez-Mastro, Fetterman, Rosen, etc.