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Economic News

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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  • Politics 
superrific said:
Is this sarcastic? I want the economy to crash and burn. We have a big election coming up in the Senate in 2026, and Dems need to pick up several seats to have a lever of control over Trump's fuckery. A crashed economy is the best way to make that happen. We have huge pickup opportunities in Maine and NC, which are probably lean-D in an off year election. But we need more. We need to pick off JD Vance's seat, for instance. Maybe Joni Ernst in IA? Those seats are in play in a wrecked economy with high inflation. Probably not in a decent economy.
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I would rather personally be wrong about what I believe will happen then to doom millions of my fellow countryfolk to bread lines.

I don't think I'm wrong but if those are the choices I would much rather be wrong.
 
StrangePackage said:
I would rather personally be wrong about what I believe will happen then to doom millions of my fellow countryfolk to bread lines.

I don't think I'm wrong but if those are the choices I would much rather be wrong.
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I would rather be personally wrong as well, but the problem so far is that I've been right.

Anyway, it's not "pain to Americans" against "me being wrong." It's "pain to Americans in the short term" versus "destruction of America and/or its standing in the world."

The US will suffer from Trump tariffs long-term. Of that I am certain. So it's better that the tariffs hit now while the man who brought the pain is still in charge. And of course the shredding of the constitution is a big concern, meaning we cannot let Trump just fill judicial seats with crazies.
 
StrangePackage said:
That is promising. Let us all hope the trend continues.
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I think this may be a canary in the coal mine forecasting an ongoing decrease in consumer demand coupled with anticipated spikes in unemployment.

The only question is will the imposition of Trump tariffs create stagflation going forward.
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
Nice to see a good inflation reading for February. If the other inflation measures come in the same later this month, that is great.

However, (and a very BIG however) these measures are 2 to 6 weeks old data. They are for February. That was all before the tariff nonsense hit as well as the Federal chainsaw job whacking by fuhrer Musk.

That data will not begin to show until March and April data is released. Also, this SHOULD be further proof, and take away the excuse that Trump just inherited all these problems from Biden. Of course MAGA will still believe it because they are a low info spoon fed cult.
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You do realize cutting govt spending helps inflation right?
 
Not to sound too tinfoil-hat here, but who releases inflation and job numbers? The Bureau of Labor Statistics? Are they under the purview of DOGE? I'm wondering if there will be a time in the near future when these numbers will be meaningless on the federal level.
 
superrific said:
I would rather be personally wrong as well, but the problem so far is that I've been right.

Anyway, it's not "pain to Americans" against "me being wrong." It's "pain to Americans in the short term" versus "destruction of America and/or its standing in the world."

The US will suffer from Trump tariffs long-term. Of that I am certain. So it's better that the tariffs hit now while the man who brought the pain is still in charge. And of course the shredding of the constitution is a big concern, meaning we cannot let Trump just fill judicial seats with crazies.
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So Trump and Super are basically on the same page.

They are both claiming we will go through short term pain before we can start winning again.
 
Silence Dogood said:
You do realize cutting govt spending helps inflation right?
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The amount of reduced gov spending will be negligible in the big scheme of things. Over 2/3 of the budget goes to SS, Medicare, Medicaid and defense spending. Certainly, overhead and pay can be cut in those areas, but the bulk still goes out.

Also, the inflation caused by tariffs, and increasing unemployment, and even more tax cuts, will greatly outweigh those effects.

Clinton was the only one that got it right in many decades. Reduce spending (wisely and in a well planned manner) coupled with INCREASED tax rates.
 
Silence Dogood said:
You do realize cutting govt spending helps inflation right?
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It doesn't. Especially since, as Krafty noted, the amount of spending being cut is negligible.

To the extent that deficits are inflationary (and there's little evidence for that, absent the weird post-pandemic environment), it's the deficit. The GOP is not planning on reducing the deficit. They are planning to increase it by a lot.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
Not to sound too tinfoil-hat here, but who releases inflation and job numbers? The Bureau of Labor Statistics? Are they under the purview of DOGE? I'm wondering if there will be a time in the near future when these numbers will be meaningless on the federal level.
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Maybe they could monkey around with it long-term, but people who know how these reports are made have said they can't be faked without it being obvious.
 
superrific said:
I hope this is a joke. We wouldn't have to go through any pain but for Trump's idiocy.
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Sort of. You are both saying that we will have short-term economic pain. He is just saying that the pain is needed to flush out the Biden recession and you are saying that the pain is needed to get democrats in charge. Different paths, but same prediction.
 
StrangePackage said:
I would rather personally be wrong about what I believe will happen then to doom millions of my fellow countryfolk to bread lines.

I don't think I'm wrong but if those are the choices I would much rather be wrong.
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I'm in the same boat. I work with too many students whose families didn't, or couldn't vote for Trump who will be on the front lines if things go wrong. Many of them are refugees whose parents fought alongside American soldiers, and would not be safe if they were forced to return to their home countries.
 
sringwal said:
I'm in the same boat. I work with too many students whose families didn't, or couldn't vote for Trump who will be on the front lines if things go wrong. Many of them are refugees whose parents fought alongside American soldiers, and would not be safe if they were forced to return to their home countries.
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Right. That's a reason to hope the Dems recapture Congress ASAP.
 
Calheel said:
Sort of. You are both saying that we will have short-term economic pain. He is just saying that the pain is needed to flush out the Biden recession and you are saying that the pain is needed to get democrats in charge. Different paths, but same prediction.
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My fears and thoughts are based in reality. That seems like a big difference.
 
sringwal said:
I think that your vision of what worst case scenario is may be more optimistic than mine.
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I don't think so. It's that I don't see that making policy decisions on worst case scenarios is necessarily the best approach.

In a sense, it's like buying nuclear war insurance. There's very little the Dems can do to stop Trump if he really wants to start WWIII. You might be right to fear it, but I don't know that it should change what you do. Trump can ruin the whole country. Maybe even the world. That's just the reality, and jumping up and down won't change that.

Dems cannot do anything except a) sue; or b) block legislation until they get control of one or more chambers. Rallying the troops means nothing. These MAGA assholes aren't looking at the polls right now. They don't fucking care. They probably know they are going to get their clocks cleaned in 26 which is why they are trying to go all in now. Delay, delay, delay is a good strategy.
 


Relever the private sector? In my world that means taking on more debt (leverage) but perhaps he means something more positive.
 
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