Economic News | CPI cools to 2.8%

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sringwal said:
I think that your vision of what worst case scenario is may be more optimistic than mine.
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I don't think so. It's that I don't see that making policy decisions on worst case scenarios is necessarily the best approach.

In a sense, it's like buying nuclear war insurance. There's very little the Dems can do to stop Trump if he really wants to start WWIII. You might be right to fear it, but I don't know that it should change what you do. Trump can ruin the whole country. Maybe even the world. That's just the reality, and jumping up and down won't change that.

Dems cannot do anything except a) sue; or b) block legislation until they get control of one or more chambers. Rallying the troops means nothing. These MAGA assholes aren't looking at the polls right now. They don't fucking care. They probably know they are going to get their clocks cleaned in 26 which is why they are trying to go all in now. Delay, delay, delay is a good strategy.
 


Relever the private sector? In my world that means taking on more debt (leverage) but perhaps he means something more positive.
 
nycfan said:


Relever the private sector? In my world that means taking on more debt (leverage) but perhaps he means something more positive.
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Hahahahaha!!! I started reading that thinking he would say we were always going to have a transition from this incredible, unsustainable level of economic growth. Which would somewhat make sense. But he’s blaming the Trump Crash on . . . government spending??? What a fucking idiot.
 

Consumer Sentiment Nosedives on Gyrating Economic Policies​

University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment fell to 57.9 in mid-March from 64.7 last month​



“… The University of Michigan’s closely watched index of consumer sentiment nosedived an additional 11% to 57.9 in mid-March from 64.7 last month, much weaker than expectations of 63.2. It marks the lowest level since 2022 and a third fall in as many months.

Compared to this time last year, consumer sentiment is down 27%. A loss of confidence can be a headwind for economic growth, since consumers can delay or abandon planned purchases if they feel downbeat about their prospects.

Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors, said Joanne Hsu, director of the survey.

Inflation expectations for the year ahead jumped to 4.9% from 4.3% last month, the highest reading since late 2022, according to the survey. …”

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Uncertainty and fear that tariffs will reignite inflation seem to be the key factors.

Kind of wild. Trump started his second term with some of his highest support ever and the benefit of Republicans and Independents swinging to a positive view of the economy more ore less because Biden was gone — a freebie. He could have actually built on that if he had any discipline at all, but he has blundered like a one-man herd of wild elephants into and on-again, off-again trade war with China and with our allies and a complete upending of 75+ years of foreign policy, while letting Musk and DOGE run wild in ways that generate reams of daily negative press for the Trump Administration (instead of a reasonably measured approach that could have been very targeted at making people feel like they are throwing off the yoke of annoying liberal “wokeness”).

It is a mind-blowing blown opportunity even knowing how erratic and egotistical Trump is. It seems he really believes he is right about everything and is hell-bound on proving it no matter the cost.
 
nycfan said:

Consumer Sentiment Nosedives on Gyrating Economic Policies​

University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment fell to 57.9 in mid-March from 64.7 last month​



“… The University of Michigan’s closely watched index of consumer sentiment nosedived an additional 11% to 57.9 in mid-March from 64.7 last month, much weaker than expectations of 63.2. It marks the lowest level since 2022 and a third fall in as many months.

Compared to this time last year, consumer sentiment is down 27%. A loss of confidence can be a headwind for economic growth, since consumers can delay or abandon planned purchases if they feel downbeat about their prospects.

Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors, said Joanne Hsu, director of the survey.

Inflation expectations for the year ahead jumped to 4.9% from 4.3% last month, the highest reading since late 2022, according to the survey. …”

——
Uncertainty and fear that tariffs will reignite inflation seem to be the key factors.

Kind of wild. Trump started his second term with some of his highest support ever and the benefit of Republicans and Independents swinging to a positive view of the economy more ore less because Biden was gone — a freebie. He could have actually built on that if he had any discipline at all, but he has blundered like a one-man herd of wild elephants into and on-again, off-again trade war with China and with our allies and a complete upending of 75+ years of foreign policy, while letting Musk and DOGE run wild in ways that generate reams of daily negative press for the Trump Administration (instead of a reasonably measured approach that could have been very targeted at making people feel like they are throwing off the yoke of annoying liberal “wokeness”).

It is a mind-blowing blown opportunity even knowing how erratic and egotistical Trump is. It seems he really believes he is right about everything and is hell-bound on proving it no matter the cost.
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He promised tariffs. The female candidate told them that would increase inflation. And they voted for the tariffs guy because they didn't like inflation.

Republicans are historically bad for the economy but the rural legend is that Republicans are better for the economy. That lie needs to die.
 
Schumer’s buddies on Wall Street seem to be behind this utter disarmament by the Democrats. Is it any surprise that Schumer and Gillibrand seem to be the main ones pushing to vote for cloture?
 
heelinhell said:
I watched Chris Hayes press Chuck on the rationale for tacitly supporting the House CR. Chuck's argument made me want to vomit.
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I saw that segment too. Hayes seemed to be in disbelief. Schumer contradicted his own strategy’s logic multiple times in the interview. That’s why the only real logic I can see behind this is Schumer trying to please the Democratic donor class by being the “adult in the room.” Stupid stupid stupid.
 
Paine said:
I saw that segment too. Hayes seemed to be in disbelief. Schumer contradicted his own strategy’s logic multiple times in the interview. That’s why the only real logic I can see behind this is Schumer trying to please the Democratic donor class by being the “adult in the room.” Stupid stupid stupid.
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I think it's more a disturbing reflection that Schumer sees NY as a state that could be in play for Pubs if he doesn't do dumb "centrist" stuff like this.

You and I are very much in agreement that Schumer and other centrist Dems' logic here is stupid and counterproductive. This is one of the first chances congressional Dems have had to actually stand in the way of what the Trump admin is doing and these ten just chose to do nothing. I don't have any inside information here but really do suspect that this is not the "donor class" pulling strings behind the scenes, but simply some centrist senators being cowards. The problem is that if Dems can't explain to voters what they're actually going to stand up for, voters will see no reason to choose them as an alternative to the Republican arsonists burning the government down.
 
rodoheel said:
I think it's more a disturbing reflection that Schumer sees NY as a state that could be in play for Pubs if he doesn't do dumb "centrist" stuff like this.

You and I are very much in agreement that Schumer and other centrist Dems' logic here is stupid and counterproductive. This is one of the first chances congressional Dems have had to actually stand in the way of what the Trump admin is doing and these ten just chose to do nothing. I don't have any inside information here but really do suspect that this is not the "donor class" pulling strings behind the scenes, but simply some centrist senators being cowards. The problem is that if Dems can't explain to voters what they're actually going to stand up for, voters will see no reason to choose them as an alternative to the Republican arsonists burning the government down.
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Is it just centrists though? Retiring senators Durbin and Shaheen voted to invoke cloture. Brian Schatz? I mean really? Just weird. Schumer providing cover for Fetterman and Cortez-Masto makes some sense, but then you have Rosen voting against. It reeks of a lack of leadership at the very least. Warnock seems to think it’s time for Schumer to go.

If centrist House members felt it was in their best interest to vote against, I just don’t understand why centrist Senators wouldn’t feel the same if this was an ideological thing.
 
Paine said:
Is it just centrists though? Retiring senators Durbin and Shaheen voted to invoke cloture. Brian Schatz? I mean really? Just weird. Schumer providing cover for Fetterman and Cortez-Masto makes some sense, but then you have Rosen voting against. It reeks of a lack of leadership at the very least. Warnock seems to think it’s time for Schumer to go.

If centrist House members felt it was in their best interest to vote against, I just don’t understand why centrist Senators wouldn’t feel the same if this was an ideological thing.
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I think it was a different calculus for the House folks than in the Senate because the Republicans could pass it without any Dem House votes. Different in the Senate when you would be casting the vote to shut the government down.

No disagreement on the lack of leadership. As we've discussed before I sometimes tend to think the Dems aren't as disorganized as they look on the surface; that some of the "disagreements" are more coordinated and calculated than they appear. But I do not think that's the case right now. The Dems are really struggling to get on the same page about the best way to respond to this all-out assault on the US government, and a result they're failing to present any sort of coherent messaging to the American people to explain what is happening and what they're doing to stop it. I'd very much like to see new Senate leadership for Dems, and maybe new House leadership as well. I'm candidly not convinced Schumer really has a coherent plan at this point.
 
rodoheel said:
I think it was a different calculus for the House folks than in the Senate because the Republicans could pass it without any Dem House votes. Different in the Senate when you would be casting the vote to shut the government down.

No disagreement on the lack of leadership. As we've discussed before I sometimes tend to think the Dems aren't as disorganized as they look on the surface; that some of the "disagreements" are more coordinated and calculated than they appear. But I do not think that's the case right now. The Dems are really struggling to get on the same page about the best way to respond to this all-out assault on the US government, and a result they're failing to present any sort of coherent messaging to the American people to explain what is happening and what they're doing to stop it. I'd very much like to see new Senate leadership for Dems, and maybe new House leadership as well. I'm candidly not convinced Schumer really has a coherent plan at this point.
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It seems like a lot “normie” liberals are reaching the levels of anger with Democratic leadership that some of us on the left have been at for a while. It’s going to be an interesting primary season in 2026.

All along, Democrats should’ve been holding town halls and rallies talking about how Elon Musk and Trump are shutting down the government. Then let them shut down the government for real once the seeds are planted and see what happens. My guess is that would’ve been a boon for Democrats rhetorically. Especially when the fed govt employees’ union also wanted a shutdown. I guess Schumer knows better than the government workers he’s claiming to protect though.
 
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