Economic News | Fed extends wait & see posture on interest rates

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finesse said:
Be my guess. If you've been planning it, getting it out of the ground this spring is the thing. See where things are late summer.
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Are you still in the business or retired? I mean, just curious. Either way, you know way more about it than I do. You're my source for on-the-ground reporting from the world of homebuilding.
 
superrific said:
Are you still in the business or retired? I mean, just curious. Either way, you know way more about it than I do. You're my source for on-the-ground reporting from the world of homebuilding.
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Long retired and out of touch. Still, I doubt if the time that's best for foundation and masonry work has changed or the generally best work weather. Old and quite possibly outdated experience says homebuilding, especially spec stuff, will take an early hit.
 
nycfan said:
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Officials say they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%​

“…
New economic projections showed 11 of 19 policymakers expect the Fed to cut rates at least twice this year, a narrower majority than the 15 officials who had penciled in at least two cuts in December.

Officials indicated they expected inflation to rise this year to 2.7%, up from 2.5% in January. The revision likely reflected increases on tariffs announced by President Trump and showed officials expect inflation to ultimately slow in 2026 and 2027.

Fed officials also said they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%.

Officials marked up their forecasts of unemployment and lowered their forecasts for economic growth. In their policy statement, they said uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased.

They removed language that had previously described the risks to achieving low and stable inflation with strong employment as “roughly in balance.” …”
 
nycfan said:

Officials say they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%​

“…
New economic projections showed 11 of 19 policymakers expect the Fed to cut rates at least twice this year, a narrower majority than the 15 officials who had penciled in at least two cuts in December.

Officials indicated they expected inflation to rise this year to 2.7%, up from 2.5% in January. The revision likely reflected increases on tariffs announced by President Trump and showed officials expect inflation to ultimately slow in 2026 and 2027.

Fed officials also said they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%.

Officials marked up their forecasts of unemployment and lowered their forecasts for economic growth. In their policy statement, they said uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased.

They removed language that had previously described the risks to achieving low and stable inflation with strong employment as “roughly in balance.” …”
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Trump is an idiot. He just is.
 
I expect GDP growth to be substantially less than 1.7%. If the April 2 tariffs are as advertised, it will be a miracle not to have negative growth for the year.
 
Calheel said:
Here is my prediction. The April 2 tariffs won't be as advertised. At least not for very long.
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While I agree with you as a matter of experience, the reporting has been that they are putting a huge amount of effort into them. The Canada things were always slipshod. This one seems more real, though obviously it's hard to conclude much about the king of chaos.

And there will be no way to walk it back with, "oh, we got some concession about this" when literally the tariffs are against the whole world.
 
Curious to see what, if any, rate cuts occur this year. We just quoted rates between 6.35%-7.50% for 30-year fixed and 7-year ARMs, and those are with 800+ credit scores. Would love to see those rates come down a little bit before I pull the trigger but it may not happen. The only reason I'm not more distraught about giving up my current 3.15% 30-year fixed is because I can't wait to GTFO of Alabama and back home to NC.
 
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