Economic News | Fed rate unchanged

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“… But the first quarter figure was misleading, the result of quirks in the way government data measured the surge in imports as businesses and consumers raced to get ahead of expected tariffs.

More reliable data on consumer spending and business investment suggested that growth slowed in the first quarter but remained fundamentally solid. …


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nycfan said:


“… But the first quarter figure was misleading, the result of quirks in the way government data measured the surge in imports as businesses and consumers raced to get ahead of expected tariffs.

More reliable data on consumer spending and business investment suggested that growth slowed in the first quarter but remained fundamentally solid. …


IMG_6787.jpeg
Click to expand...

“… Beyond such quirks in the data, however, economists said the larger takeaway from the latest data is clear: Consumers and businesses began changing their behavior in response to Mr. Trump’s policies even before the April 2 tariff announcement that sent financial markets into a tailspin. The full effect of those policies won’t become clear for months, but economists warn that the damage could be substantial, especially if Mr. Trump continues to change his approach on a nearly daily basis as he has over the past month.

The U.S. economy has proved remarkably resilient in recent years, repeatedly defying predictions of a recession. Economists said there are still pockets of strength that could help it withstand the strains being put on it by Mr. Trump’s policies. But growth was slowing even before this year, leaving less of a cushion. …”
 
nycfan said:


“… But the first quarter figure was misleading, the result of quirks in the way government data measured the surge in imports as businesses and consumers raced to get ahead of expected tariffs.

More reliable data on consumer spending and business investment suggested that growth slowed in the first quarter but remained fundamentally solid. …


IMG_6787.jpeg
Click to expand...

I keep reading talks about the imports impacting GDP but that is not how it works. Imports are subtracted from GDP only to offset its effect on consumption and investment (including increases in inventory).

www.stlouisfed.org

How Do Imports Affect GDP?

The current textbook treatment of how international trade is measured as part of GDP can lead people to misunderstand the role trade plays in the economy.
www.stlouisfed.org www.stlouisfed.org
 
heelinhell said:
Thanks Biden:mad:

www.rawstory.com

'This is Biden’s Stock Market': Trump flips out over new 'worst quarter' economic report

President Donald Trump took to Truth Social complaining about the latest economic report on Wednesday Morning. “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s," the President said. ALSO READ: 'Dictatorship, not a town hall': Families 'distraught' as MTG disruptors tased and jailed “I didn’t...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com
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Just to break this down a bit for Ram and Silence --

"Tariffs will soon start kicking in" -- THIS IS THE FIRST PROBLEM

"and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers." -- LIE #1

"Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden ‘Overhang.’” -- LIE #2

“This will take a while" -- THIS IS THE SECOND PROBLEM

"has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS" -- LIE #3

"only that he left us with bad numbers" -- LIE #4

"but when the boom begins, it will be like no other” -- ASSUMING BY 'BOOM' HE MEANS THE COMPLETE IMPLOSION OF OUR ECONOMY, THIS IS THE THIRD PROBLEM
 
We are so about to reap the whirlwind. This is quickly moving beyond smug thoughts of FAFO. We are all going to suffer, and it's going to take years to reverse.
 


“… In my case I had the biggest stock market increase, 88% in the last term, in my last term … I don’t take credit or discredit for the stock market … what the stock market tells you, at least in this case, it says how bad a situation we inherited …”
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
I keep reading talks about the imports impacting GDP but that is not how it works. Imports are subtracted from GDP only to offset its effect on consumption and investment (including increases in inventory).
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You're right, though I think you're taking aim at something of a straw man. In fairness to you, the journalists writing these stories aren't clear, perhaps because they don't understand precisely and are thus fudging. When they say things like, "imports are the cause of the GDP decline," obviously that's not correct because they are mixing up methodology with theory.

I'm inclined to go with the data over the anecdote. Nate Silver says his biggest mistakes come from not heeding his own model. That might be the case here. Maybe inventories are higher and they were just not measured correctly. But it could also be that inventories were measured fine and the economy just sucks.
 
superrific said:
1. The fact that January is in this report only means it's not as bad as it would otherwise have been. Biden dragging it down, LOL.

2. You could even say the next quarter is some of Biden. Cool. We know what's coming and so does Trump.
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Yep, trump’s been told shit is going down, Q2.
 
It's official. Trump is horrible for the US Economy. -0.3% for the quarter:

apnews.com

U.S. economy shrinks 0.3% in first quarter as Trump trade wars disrupt businesses

The U.S. economy shrank 0.3% from January through March, first drop in three years. It was slowed by a surge in imports as companies in the United States tried to bring in foreign goods before President Donald Trump imposed massive tariffs.
apnews.com apnews.com

And it's going to get worse as shelves start to empty and Trump plays whack-a-mole with rising product prices. A stagflated recession will be a fact by July 1.
 
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