Economic News | Moodys downgrades U.S. Debt Rating

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Probably some seasonal bump there for end of school year, so mostly static at this point … still a slower to hire and hesitant to fire job market.

 
nycfan said:


Probably some seasonal bump there for end of school year, so mostly static at this point … still a slower to hire and hesitant to fire job market.
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And most of the federal layoffs and affiliated contractors aren’t yet figured into the equation, since (like me) most of those being laid off have some severance package to hold them over for a few months. Let’s see what things look like in June, July, August.
 
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About what was expected



Consumer behavior indicates they think the economy is worse that economists and the Stock Markets suggest … might be some lagging reduction after pre-tariff purchasing
 
nycfan said:
Consumer behavior indicates they think the economy is worse that economists and the Stock Markets suggest … might be some lagging reduction after pre-tariff purchasing
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Maybe. But it's also true that if consumer spending was higher, the inflation would be worse. Especially since the tariffs are not even across the board, there could be some reduction in certain sectors because of excessively high prices that isn't matched elsewhere. I mean, if you're planning on buying a car, and prices go up 10%, you might skip it but you're not going to spend that money elsewhere.

It's also possible that people slowed down because they wanted to wait until after TACO.
 
nycfan said:
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Trump will continue pounding the table for the FRB to drop interest rates, not making the connection that the Fed rates and mortgage rates don’t work in perfect tandem.
The Fed dropped rates three times last year and mortgage rates budged a little after the first one, but then climbed back up once Trump was elected because the bond market predicted Trump would stall the economy due to his stupid tariff nonsense, and also it expected increased deficit spending.
The Fed was right on both counts.

Once again, all Trump had to do was go and play golf for four years and the economy would be booming. But he is actively fucking it all up. Voters should be furious.
 

Cloaked in technicalities, the implication of the “revenge” measure, as it’s quickly becoming known, is clear to analysts: If signed into law, it would further drive away foreign investors at a time when their once ironclad confidence in Treasury bonds and other US assets has already been shaken by Trump’s erratic trade policies and the nation’s deteriorating fiscal accounts.

For now, the market reaction to Section 899 appears muted, at best. Still, US assets as a whole have been underperformers this year as Trump’s policies put a dent in the narrative of the “America exceptionalism.”

The S&P 500 is up about 0.4% this year, compared with a 20% gain in the German benchmark and a 18% rally in Hong Kong. The Bloomberg Dollar Index slumped about 7%. The US Treasuries returned 2%, trailing the 5% gain in the global government bonds in dollar terms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
 
heelinhell said:
The S&P 500 is up about 0.4% this year, compared with a 20% gain in the German benchmark and a 18% rally in Hong Kong. The Bloomberg Dollar Index slumped about 7%. The US Treasuries returned 2%, trailing the 5% gain in the global government bonds in dollar terms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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Is Trump aware that foreign markets are kicking his ass?
 
heelinhell said:

Cloaked in technicalities, the implication of the “revenge” measure, as it’s quickly becoming known, is clear to analysts: If signed into law, it would further drive away foreign investors at a time when their once ironclad confidence in Treasury bonds and other US assets has already been shaken by Trump’s erratic trade policies and the nation’s deteriorating fiscal accounts.

For now, the market reaction to Section 899 appears muted, at best. Still, US assets as a whole have been underperformers this year as Trump’s policies put a dent in the narrative of the “America exceptionalism.”

The S&P 500 is up about 0.4% this year, compared with a 20% gain in the German benchmark and a 18% rally in Hong Kong. The Bloomberg Dollar Index slumped about 7%. The US Treasuries returned 2%, trailing the 5% gain in the global government bonds in dollar terms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Click to expand...
 
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