Economic News Thread | 3Q Annual GDP 2.8%

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“This may be the wake-up call for Powell and [Fed policymakers] that they need to commit to cuts and forward guidance more explicitly,” Michael Block, co-founder and chief strategy officer at AgentSmyth, told CNN.

Sorry don't know how to edit
 
douglas said:


US job growth during much of the past year was significantly weaker than initially estimated, according to new data released Wednesday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary annual benchmark review of employment data suggests that there were 818,000 fewer jobs in March of this year than were initially reported.
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Let’s keep reading.

Every year, the BLS conducts a revision to the data from its monthly survey of businesses’ payrolls, then benchmarks the March employment level to those measured by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.

The preliminary data marks the largest downward revision since 2009 and shows that the labor market wasn’t quite as red hot as initially thought. However, job growth was still historically strong.

When spread through the prior year, the average monthly job gain from April 2023 through March 2024 was 173,500 versus nearly 242,000, an analysis of BLS data shows.

“It is important for markets to remember that these are not job losses, it is just that the job count was never that high,” wrote Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds in a note Wednesday. “The economy apparently did not need those phantom ‘lost’ workers, because robust real consumer expenditures powered very strong [economic] growth in the second half of last year.”
 
douglas said:
“This may be the wake-up call for Powell and [Fed policymakers] that they need to commit to cuts and forward guidance more explicitly,” Michael Block, co-founder and chief strategy officer at AgentSmyth, told CNN.

Sorry don't know how to edit
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Click on the dots and down arrow to the right of “Report” at the bottom left of your post; Edit will appear in a drop down.
 
818K jobs is a massive miss, even for a year. I'm not sure exactly how that happens.

I suspect that some of those 818K jobs will come back in the next revision, as I think that is when the bureau tries to add back under-the-table jobs. But even if half of those 800K are recovered, it's still a big miss.

That this was the biggest miss since 2009 shows that employment data appears to be hard to collect in economically turbulent times.
 
Ok for some reason i can't see some words unless the cursor is over them. Got it
 
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So first i have not read all this thread so it may have been mentioned before but i just did some calculation i meant to do a long time ago. Based on a excel spreadsheet from the BLS here are some stats on US job growth. In March and April of 2020 there were about 22 million in job losses for covid shutdowns. From March 2020 until June 2022 there was about a net job creation of zero for that 28 months. Since July 2022 we have created about 6.4 million jobs thru July 2024. The several years preceding 2020 the average was about 2.1 million per year and totaled a little under 6.4 for the 3 years 2017-2019.
 
According to explainer in chief, since 1989 Dem adiminstrations have created 50 million jobs and GQP administrations have created 1 million jobs.

We know that the economy and the stock market do better when there is a Dem in the Oval Office, so this stat is not surprising...
 
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Of course a lot of other things are going on in the world when these guys were president. Everyone knew the Trump job losses were temporary and really just gov. imposed work stoppages. Bill Clinton had a budget passed by a republican congress including massive tax cuts. He also benefit from an asia currency crash that left oil prices below $20 a barrel. Bush the second had a dot com collapse at the beginning and a housing crash at the end.
l
I know the truth is for suckers.
 
douglas said:
Of course a lot of other things are going on in the world when these guys were president. Everyone knew the Trump job losses were temporary and really just gov. imposed work stoppages. Bill Clinton had a budget passed by a republican congress including massive tax cuts. He also benefit from an asia currency crash that left oil prices below $20 a barrel. Bush the second had a dot com collapse at the beginning and a housing crash at the end.
l
I know the truth is for suckers.
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Tell that to Trump and the MAGA crew who want to pretend the pandemic didn't happen when blaming Biden for inflation. Since you are all about the truth.
 
douglas said:
Everyone knew the Trump job losses were temporary and really just gov. imposed work stoppages. Bill Clinton had a budget passed by a republican congress including massive tax cuts. He also benefit from an asia currency crash that left oil prices below $20 a barrel. Bush the second had a dot com collapse at the beginning and a housing crash at the end.
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Government imposed work stoppages? Seriously?

Clinton's tax increases were the primary factor in balancing the budget. The tax cuts came considerably later and were smaller. Oil prices briefly dipped below $20 but that's more or less irrelevant to the job market.

The housing crash in no way exonerates Bush, given that his administration played such a vital role in creating it. That's like saying, "LBJ was unpopular because of Vietnam!" i would say the main culprit in the financial crisis was either Alan Greenspan or the British regulators that let AIG FP go nuts, but the Bush SEC lifted the leverage caps on the big banks and that's why they went bust. It was the "net capital rule" of 2004 and it was one of the main contributors to the collapse of Lehman and others. So yeah, it's on the Bush administration. Sure, Bush probably had no idea it was occurring but he appointed industry shills to lead the SEC and that's what happens.

And I'm not going to fight with you here or anywhere about your take on the financial crisis. The Community Reinvestment Act contributed 0% to the crisis. The repeal of Glass Steagall contributed 0% to the crisis. I know about this topic. I've written about it professionally. I taught it to JD and MBA students. If you want to parade your own nonsense, go for it but I'm not going to engage.
 
douglas said:
Of course a lot of other things are going on in the world when these guys were president. Everyone knew the Trump job losses were temporary and really just gov. imposed work stoppages. Bill Clinton had a budget passed by a republican congress including massive tax cuts. He also benefit from an asia currency crash that left oil prices below $20 a barrel. Bush the second had a dot com collapse at the beginning and a housing crash at the end.
l
I know the truth is for suckers.
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IIRC, the GOP took control of Congress in 1994 because Clinton convinced Democrats to pass a tax reform plan that actually raised taxes on a lot of Americans (but also ultimately contributed to the reduction in the deficit and eventually even the debt with the dreaded “surplus”).
 
superrific said:
Government imposed work stoppages? Seriously?

Clinton's tax increases were the primary factor in balancing the budget. The tax cuts came considerably later and were smaller. Oil prices briefly dipped below $20 but that's more or less irrelevant to the job market.

The housing crash in no way exonerates Bush, given that his administration played such a vital role in creating it. That's like saying, "LBJ was unpopular because of Vietnam!" i would say the main culprit in the financial crisis was either Alan Greenspan or the British regulators that let AIG FP go nuts, but the Bush SEC lifted the leverage caps on the big banks and that's why they went bust. It was the "net capital rule" of 2004 and it was one of the main contributors to the collapse of Lehman and others. So yeah, it's on the Bush administration. Sure, Bush probably had no idea it was occurring but he appointed industry shills to lead the SEC and that's what happens.

And I'm not going to fight with you here or anywhere about your take on the financial crisis. The Community Reinvestment Act contributed 0% to the crisis. The repeal of Glass Steagall contributed 0% to the crisis. I know about this topic. I've written about it professionally. I taught it to JD and MBA students. If you want to parade your own nonsense, go for it but I'm not going to engage.
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I’d listen to you Ted talk on it.
 
douglas said:
Of course a lot of other things are going on in the world when these guys were president. Everyone knew the Trump job losses were temporary and really just gov. imposed work stoppages. Bill Clinton had a budget passed by a republican congress including massive tax cuts. He also benefit from an asia currency crash that left oil prices below $20 a barrel. Bush the second had a dot com collapse at the beginning and a housing crash at the end.
l
I know the truth is for suckers.
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My company in general and my team specifically flawlessly transitioned to a work from home model when the pandemic hit.
We were prepared and had a plan in case of uncontrollable events, including pandemics.
I know, because I wrote the procedure for my team.
There was a plan in place for pandemics before Trump was president, but he discarded them for no apparent reason other than he is a fool. He has to own not merely being unprepared, but that he dismantled the guardrails put in place by well-meaning presidents before him.
That’s the truth, Ruth.
 
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