Economic News Thread | 3Q Annual GDP 2.8%

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HowardMajooky said:
This is us, I hold a BA from Carolina and an MEd and my wife holds a BS in Dental Hygiene from Carolina. With 3 kids, one in college and 2 still in high school, it seems that we live paycheck to paycheck. Half of my teacher pay goes to health insurance and the mortgage. I'll work until I die and dig my own grave to save the money.

Growing up in the 80's my parents both worked, my father is a mechanical engineer and my mother an RN. She worked more because she wanted to than needed to. We had twice the house I have, they paid for four private school and 3 college tuitions had 3 vehicles and bought a beach house before they were 45. My wife's father was a law professor at Campbell since almost its inception and they still live in the same house in Keith Hills but its been paid off for 20+ years. My MiL never worked. They didn't have the real estate my parents did but they traveled frequently and extensively and my wife and her sister graduated from Carolina debt-free.
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and your parents were able to do that in an economic environment 0f double digit inflation, double digit interest rates, and unemployment rates that ranged from 5-7%

If your parents and in-laws are still alive, I suggest you have a talk with them and ask them how they were able prosper during such a dire financial crisis. I'm guessing that any advice they may give you will be very beneficial.
 
TarHeeledTexan said:
Just an observation. Your Dad was an engineer and you have a Masters of Education.

I have a Masters in Archaeology and am a senior manager doing environmental consulting for a large AE firm. My Dad has a Masters in Mechanical Engineering and worked for nearly 60 years in construction management before retiring two years ago at age 80. He made more money a year in the 1990s working as an expat in England and Asia than I make now 25+ years later, not adjusted for inflation.

The degree and the career path make a big difference.
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heelinhell said:
and your parents were able to do that in an economic environment 0f double digit inflation, double digit interest rates, and unemployment rates that ranged from 5-7%

If your parents and in-laws are still alive, I suggest you have a talk with them and ask them how they were able prosper during such a dire financial crisis. I'm guessing that any advice they may give you will be very beneficial.
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I agree with the difference the career path makes, however it is taking my wife and I both working fulltime to even attempt to accomplish what they could on one income.
 
HowardMajooky said:
I agree with the difference the career path makes, however it is taking my wife and I both working fulltime to even attempt to accomplish what they could on one income.
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To what do you attribute that difference? It's not inflation.

Health insurance is more expensive than it used to be. That's because we have so much more health care. Imagine how much health insurance would have cost in 1900. You go to the doctor, he diagnoses you with pneumonia, and the treatment was to rest and hope. It's because we have treatments for so much that insurance costs more money.

College is more expensive than it used to be. That's true for a number of reasons, but it has nothing to do with inflation.

And finally, it's worth noting that your degree is from Carolina. Given the ages of your kids and your degrees, my guess is that you attended UNC in the 90s. Well, that was before the state legislature fucked with the funding. UNC was less than $1K per semester in 1995-96. Now it's almost $7K per year. And if you're sending your kids to private schools or out of state, then you're likely paying 50x what your parents paid for you. Adjust for inflation and that goes to 25x.

Here's a historical record of tuition at UNC. Pretty shocking.

 

"... Roughly 68 million Americans receive Social Security benefits each month, according to the Social Security Administration. And in 2023, about 4 million workers were in tipped jobs, according to an estimate from Yale University’s Budget Lab.

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs approximated in March 2023 that there were 18.6 million living veterans. There are 1.3 million active-duty military personnel, according to the Department of Defense. And there are 800,000 sworn law enforcement officers and roughly 500,000 paid firefighters.

Taken together, these reforms could leave about 93.2 million people off the hook for at least a portion, if not all, of their income taxes. ..."

That accounts for about 38% of the 244 million Americans eligible to vote in 2024. ..."

----

Basically, Trump is proposing that about half of taxpayers not pay income taxes anymore -- and inching closer to no one pays income taxes because MAGIC TARIFFS!
 
superrific said:
To what do you attribute that difference? It's not inflation.

Health insurance is more expensive than it used to be. That's because we have so much more health care. Imagine how much health insurance would have cost in 1900. You go to the doctor, he diagnoses you with pneumonia, and the treatment was to rest and hope. It's because we have treatments for so much that insurance costs more money.

College is more expensive than it used to be. That's true for a number of reasons, but it has nothing to do with inflation.

And finally, it's worth noting that your degree is from Carolina. Given the ages of your kids and your degrees, my guess is that you attended UNC in the 90s. Well, that was before the state legislature fucked with the funding. UNC was less than $1K per semester in 1995-96. Now it's almost $7K per year. And if you're sending your kids to private schools or out of state, then you're likely paying 50x what your parents paid for you. Adjust for inflation and that goes to 25x.

Here's a historical record of tuition at UNC. Pretty shocking.

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I'm trying to understand that difference, I'm not an economist just a lowly history teacher. I graduated high school in '88, went to school for a year failed out and enlisted in '89. I finally made my way to Chapel Hill and graduated in '97. My twins go to public school and my oldest is a freshman at State.

And that report was shocking, my GI Bill benefits more than covered all of my expenses and some extra as well.
 
HowardMajooky said:
I'm trying to understand that difference, I'm not an economist just a lowly history teacher. I graduated high school in '88, went to school for a year failed out and enlisted in '89. I finally made my way to Chapel Hill and graduated in '97. My twins go to public school and my oldest is a freshman at State.

And that report was shocking, my GI Bill benefits more than covered all of my expenses and some extra as well.
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I thought you said that your parents paid your college expenses. If you want to discuss this topic, start a thread and I'll be happy to post on it.
 
superrific said:
I thought you said that your parents paid your college expenses. If you want to discuss this topic, start a thread and I'll be happy to post on it.
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Nah, they paid that 1st semester, I blew it so the rest was on me. It isn't that important. We're getting by, hopefully Kamala and some local Dems win and we can staunch some of the hemmoraghing from the middle class no matter the causes.
 
superrific said:
Here's a historical record of tuition at UNC. Pretty shocking.
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A buddy of mine's daughter is at NYU, she's living with a friend on 2nd Ave around 10th St., not exactly the upper East side or Tribeca but he said the place is pretty nice. Asked him the monthly rent, it's $6100 (they split it), I was like damn, one month's rent for a reasonably nice apartment in NYC is more than my total 4 year tuition at UNC...
 
Season 7 Oops GIF by Workaholics


Gas is much cheaper in battleground states like Nevada and Arizona than a year ago. And for the first time since 2021, the national average has a real shot at plunging below $3 a gallon in the coming days.

“It looks like a very strong possibility that we’ll fall below $3 a gallon, perhaps in the next 7 to 12 days. There’s a sense of not if, but when,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CNN in a phone interview.

It’s a crucial trend that undercuts one of the biggest arguments Republicans have used to hammer Democrats over the cost of living.
 
hedge said:
A buddy of mine's daughter is at NYU, she's living with a friend on 2nd Ave around 10th St., not exactly the upper East side or Tribeca but he said the place is pretty nice. Asked him the monthly rent, it's $6100 (they split it), I was like damn, one month's rent for a reasonably nice apartment in NYC is more than my total 4 year tuition at UNC...
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2nd and 10th is pretty prime real estate. That's the problem with NYU. Housing is ridiculously unaffordable. It's one reason many celebs attend NYU. A lot of wealthy kids there who might not get so excited at seeing famous people.

But damn, $6100 is a lot for a 2 BR apartment. Rent in Manhattan has gone through the roof since I left. I mean, I knew that, but the roof is really freaking high.
 


“… The Commerce Department is expected to report Wednesday that the gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — grew at a 2.6% annual pace last quarter, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. That would be down from a 3% annual rate in the April-June period. But it would still amount to a solid pace as Americans ponder the state of the economyin the final stretch of the presidential race.

Wednesday’s report is the first of three estimates the government will make of GDP growth for the third quarter of the year. The U.S. economy, the world’s biggest, has shown surprising resilience in the face of the much higher borrowing rates the Federal Reserve imposed in 2022 and 2023 in its drive to curb inflation. Despite widespread predictions that the economy would succumb to a recession, it has kept growing, with employers still hiring and consumers still spending. …”
 
Who pays for tariffs? Of course you know who. From the WAPO:

Across the United States, companies that rely on foreign suppliers are preparing to raise prices in response to the massive import tariffs that former president Donald Trump promises if he wins the election Tuesday.

Producers of a range of items, including clothing, footwear, baby products, auto parts and hardware, say they will pass along the cost of the tariffs to their American customers.

The planned price increases next year would come as consumers are beginning to enjoy relief from the highest inflation in four decades and directly contradict Trump’s repeated assurances that foreigners will pay the tariff tab.
“We’re set to raise prices,” Timothy Boyle, chief executive of Columbia Sportswear, said in an interview. “We’re buying stuff today for delivery next fall. So we’re just going to deal with it and we’ll just raise the prices. … It’s going to be very, very difficult to keep products affordable for Americans.”


Trump vows to impose the heaviest tariffs since the 1930s, including a 60 percent tax on products from China and a 10 to 20 percent fee on all other foreign goods. Doing so will encourage companies to produce inside the United States using American workers rather than buy from foreign suppliers, he has said.
Trump also has repeatedly claimed that foreign companies — not Americans — pay such import taxes. “The countries will pay,” he insisted this month during an interview with Bloomberg’s John Micklethwait at the Economic Club of Chicago.
In fact, American importers pay all tariffs to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency at the time their products enter the country.

 
“… Current economic growth is also well above the pace economists see as the long-term trend. Federal Reserve officials put the U.S. economy’s longer-run projected growth rate at 1.8%, according to projections released at their most recent meeting in September.

Over the past couple of years under the Biden administration, the economy has outperformed most expectations. A solid labor market, rising wages and pandemic savings helped Americans continue to spend despite high borrowing costs.

“The economy is doing really well,” thanks in part to an artificial-intelligence boom and government spending through programs like the Inflation Reduction Act, said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. …”
 
I was thinking about Trump’s plan to remove income tax and replace it with tariffs. Obviously this is a historically horrible idea but I thought of one more way it could cause a stock crash.

If that happened, why would anyone who is over 59 1/2 leave their money in a 401k? Why not move it from pre-tax to post-tax while you can do it for free? That itself could crater the stock market.

Given, lots of people would roll it into the market but it would have initial huge downward pressure on stocks and that would make people think twice about putting that money back in the market.

Maybe not the worst effect of Trump’s plan but it surely would not help.
 
ALERT ! ALERT ! ALERT !

Warning to GQPers who are worried about future inflation !

www.rawstory.com

'Bear the burden': CEOs warn major price hikes already planned to offset Trump tariffs

A slew of businesses across the U.S. say they're preparing to spike prices should former President Donald Trump regain the White House in 2025, the Washington Post reported Wednesday.Companies that rely on foreign suppliers for baby products, auto parts and clothing — to name just a few — say...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com
 
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