Economic News Thread | 3Q Annual GDP 2.8%

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I’m really curious to see if polling on economic stewardship continues to shift as we get closer to November. The Pubs’ doom and gloom narrative just feels like obvious gaslighting at this point. The reality is that against all odds, we have a very strong economy with pockets of major issues (housing supply, rent costs, etc.). I’d love to hear a message from Kamala that targets those issues, while affirming the incredible work American companies and the Fed have done over the last few years. As much as I hate to give DeSantis any credit, Florida’s crackdown on Chinese investment in real estate, while misguided in the details, could be a very popular template for a Harris policy about returning more of the housing supply to families and individual homeowners.
 
lawtig02 said:
I’m really curious to see if polling on economic stewardship continues to shift as we get closer to November. The Pubs’ doom and gloom narrative just feels like obvious gaslighting at this point. The reality is that against all odds, we have a very strong economy with pockets of major issues (housing supply, rent costs, etc.). I’d love to hear a message from Kamala that targets those issues, while affirming the incredible work American companies and the Fed have done over the last few years. As much as I hate to give DeSantis any credit, Florida’s crackdown on Chinese investment in real estate, while misguided in the details, could be a very popular template for a Harris policy about returning more of the housing supply to families and individual homeowners.
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I think people just perceiving the economy through a different lens (a possible new, future-forward leader) might help improve overall view of the economy and as a result of the Harris/Walz ticket.

I think people felt bad because they felt they had this guy as POTUS:

wormtongue-2.jpg

Free of that depression glaucoma filter, many folks may start to see the economy through new eyes.
 
lawtig02 said:
I think a lot of people genuinely struggle to understand this and it blows my mind. With extremely few exceptions, almost all of which were in times of economic devastation, every single year in American history has been “the most expensive timeline of our lifetime.”
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This kind of thing used to surprise me but eventually the realization that most Americans don't understand how anything works became inescapable. Right wing media knows this and exploits it. I will at least give this tweeter credit for trying to remediate their ignorance.
 
Duke Mu said:
Medicare drug prices are down. Fuel costs are down.

apnews.com

White House says prescription drug deals will produce billions in savings for taxpayers, seniors

Taxpayers are expected to save billions after the Biden administration inked deals with pharmaceutical companies to knock down the list prices for 10 of Medicare’s costliest drugs.
apnews.com apnews.com
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Yes, some prices are down, but PPI is 2.2% and CPI is 2.9%. Both numbers are really good and we don’t actually want them negative, but they indicate prices across the economy are still up a bit YOY.
 
lawtig02 said:
Yes, some prices are down, but PPI is 2.2% and CPI is 2.9%. Both numbers are really good and we don’t actually want them negative, but they indicate prices across the economy are still up a bit YOY.
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While this is true in a general sense, it's really housing that's causing the inflation above the Fed's target. The goods component of core CPI has actually seen a decrease every month in 2024 and housing has contributed fully two-thirds of the increase in inflation. So while inflation is still elevated above the Fed's target, we have and continue to see a drop in the prices of goods. It's also true that housing is a lagging indicator and current rents have stalled, so in my estimation the war against inflation has pretty much been won.

www.minneapolisfed.org

Despite cooling prices for new leases, overall housing inflation could remain elevated into 2025 | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

We find a long lag between new leases and the overall cost of shelter in the consumer price index
www.minneapolisfed.org www.minneapolisfed.org
 
Enigma94 said:
While this is true in a general sense, it's really housing that's causing the inflation above the Fed's target. The goods component of core CPI has actually seen a decrease every month in 2024 and housing has contributed fully two-thirds of the increase in inflation. So while inflation is still elevated above the Fed's target, we have and continue to see a drop in the prices of goods. It's also true that housing is a lagging indicator and current rents have stalled, so in my estimation the war against inflation has pretty much been won.

www.minneapolisfed.org

Despite cooling prices for new leases, overall housing inflation could remain elevated into 2025 | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

We find a long lag between new leases and the overall cost of shelter in the consumer price index
www.minneapolisfed.org www.minneapolisfed.org
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I agree with you. I’m extremely happy with how the economy has been managed. My point was just that we don’t actually want deflation, so a positive IR is actually a good thing. It’s even better when people are getting some relief at the grocery store and the gas pump, but we shouldn’t discount housing pain (and I know you’re not doing that). Especially for young people, a strong position by Kamala on rents and housing inventory could go a long way.
 
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