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  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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nycfan said:
Krugman on the “Vibecession” that suddenly ended …

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This has to be one of the most infuriatingly idiotic parts of modern American politics, mainly because it has such a significant impact on voting behavior. And to revisit a prior discussion on this, while both parties swing a bit based on who is in office, Pubs swing WILDLY and with no rational connection whatsoever to what’s really happening in the market. Economic illiteracy among the American right is one of the greatest threats to the country today, and it’s being constantly reinforced by right wing media and political leaders.
 
lawtig02 said:
This has to be one of the most infuriatingly idiotic parts of modern American politics, mainly because it has such a significant impact on voting behavior. And to revisit a prior discussion on this, while both parties swing a bit based on who is in office, Pubs swing WILDLY and with no rational connection whatsoever to what’s really happening in the market. Economic illiteracy among the American right is one of the greatest threats to the country today, and it’s being constantly reinforced by right wing media and political leaders.
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To understand even the most basic concepts of economics requires a capacity for abstract thought. Conservatives generally, and MAGAs especially, tend to be literal/ concrete thinkers and have little, if any, understanding of basic economics.

Attempting to explain basic economics to them is a waste of time. Dems have to develop political messages that a 5th grader can understand. Trump has been very skillful in dumbing down political messaging. Dems need to up ( down ? ) their game when it comes to political messaging that can reach 40% of the country which is Trump country.
 
Paine said:
I generally agree with this. But I don’t want it to be lost that people in this country were (and continue to) experiencing economic hardship in the areas that hit them most on a week to week basis: grocery prices and rent prices.

These factors are rarely accounted for in discussions of the so-called “vibecession,” which is a pretty arrogant way to talk about economics when you consider that poor and working people were struggling and continue to struggle.

There are a ton of MAGAs who were making out relatively fine in these years. The middle-class to upper-class suburban Republican is still a big part of Trump’s coalition. Of course there is a brainwashed segment who will flip on a dime based on who is in office, we already knew that way before 2021.
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I haven't seen any data, but I wonder what % of Americans have actually been experiencing economic hardship today compared to the Trump, Obama, and Bush administrations.

My guess is ( leaving "feelings" aside ) that the % suffering economic hardship has been relatively constant over the last 25 years.
 
Trump promised rates would lower with him president. But the Fed has announced it will do FEWER rate reductions because Trump is an idiot.
Trump promised that grocery prices would come down. He recently admitted that was a lie, and now inflation is expected to increase under Trump because he is an idiot.
Trump promised the stock market would take off if elected, but it is crashing because he is an idiot.
Not off to a great start.
 
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Paine said:
I generally agree with this. But I don’t want it to be lost that people in this country were (and continue to) experiencing economic hardship in the areas that hit them most on a week to week basis: grocery prices and rent prices.

These factors are rarely accounted for in discussions of the so-called “vibecession,” which is a pretty arrogant way to talk about economics when you consider that poor and working people were struggling and continue to struggle.

There are a ton of MAGAs who were making out relatively fine in these years. The middle-class to upper-class suburban Republican is still a big part of Trump’s coalition. Of course there is a brainwashed segment who will flip on a dime based on who is in office, we already knew that way before 2021.
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While you’re right about the economic reality, that doesn’t really relate to Krugman’s comments (or mine), which are about economic perception and voting behavior. Unless, that is, you’re aware of data showing poorer Americans don’t swing with party changes like everyone else does. The reality, I’m almost sure, is that poorer conservatives are just as hypocritical on this as the rest of the GOP, and while we can support initiatives to improve their position, we shouldn’t hesitate to call out their hypocrisy. Especially when it’s massively counterproductive.
 
Paine said:
No, thankfully I’m well-off compared to most of my peers. We can afford the rent hit.

Not sure when you bought your first home, but there are a ton more expenses that people face today when just trying to live a normal life IMO.

When rent is outrageous and groceries are expensive, that leaves little room for anything else. Now add on insurance, internet, phone bill, car payment, gas, etc. All of which have gotten more expensive.

There’s also very few social spaces/experiences left that don’t require spending a lot money in order to access. This wasn’t the case until relatively recently.

It’s not an Olympics of whether young people have suffered more than older people. I don’t see why it’s so hard to acknowledge that things are hard now in different ways that older people can’t really understand, and the same goes the other way. Just have empathy.
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I bought my house in 1982 during the Reagan recession. My mortgage was a 12.5% variable rate and inflation was about to get down into single digits after two years of double digit inflation.

We had cable TV which was our sole entertainment.. no internet or cell phone bills back then. We had to buy gas, insurance, and daycare, as well.

And my point is not that my generation had it harder than you. We experienced "hardship" as do you. We received no empathy from the "greatest generation" who suffered the Great Depression and WWII, nor did we think we were entitled to empathy from that generation.
 
Paine said:
Right. What we’re discussing here is not whether every generation has experienced hardship in some way or another. That’s obviously true. What’s at issue here is a certain segment of people saying that there actually aren’t economic issues because the GDP is up and the stock market is doing good.

It amounts to what feels like a dismissal of people’s everyday lived experiences of high rent and high groceries. That sort of attitude is what has gotten Democrats further away from working people and has been part of the recipe Trump and others have exploited.
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I agree with you

The mistake that Dems made was to downplay the "feelings" that the voters were suffering some unique hardship that others have not experienced under similar circumstances in the past.

Moreover, Dems made the mistake of "arguing" that their economic situation was actually improving since Trump left office. Dems made the mistake that voters were experiencing amnesia regarding the horrendous economic situation Trump left Biden on his way out the door.

The odds are that these working people will suffer greatly in the next Trump administration. The unknown is whether they will "feel" it.
 
Paine said:
Right. What we’re discussing here is not whether every generation has experienced hardship in some way or another. That’s obviously true. What’s at issue here is a certain segment of people saying that there actually aren’t economic issues because the GDP is up and the stock market is doing good.

It amounts to what feels like a dismissal of people’s everyday lived experiences of high rent and high groceries. That sort of attitude is what has gotten Democrats further away from working people and has been part of the recipe Trump and others have exploited.
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No, this discussion is (or at least was) about people, regardless of income level, who think the economy is bad when a Dem is in charge but miraculously start to think the same economy is great when a Pub is in charge. It’s a phenomenon that infects both parties, but it’s a mild cold among Dems and an outbreak of the bubonic plague among Pubs.
 
Paine said:
That’s what part of the discussion was about. Nycfan specifically invoked the vibescession argument and its proponents like Krugman.

These people are using the real phenomenon that we’re also talking about as a victory lap to “prove” their earlier theories about people’s economic grievances just being based on “vibes.”
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If you read that Krugman post again, I don’t think he was talking about dismissing grievances based on vibes. He was specifically commenting on the infuriating phenomenon in which Pubs think the economy is bad when a Dem is in office, but change their minds overnight (without any change to the actual economy) when a Pub is elected. That’s the vibe he was talking about there. And he’s 100% right.
 
Paine said:
No, thankfully I’m well-off compared to most of my peers. We can afford the rent hit.

Not sure when you bought your first home, but there are a ton more expenses that people face today when just trying to live a normal life IMO.

When rent is outrageous and groceries are expensive, that leaves little room for anything else. Now add on insurance, internet, phone bill, car payment, gas, etc. All of which have gotten more expensive.

There’s also very few social spaces/experiences left that don’t require spending a lot money in order to access. This wasn’t the case until relatively recently.

It’s not an Olympics of whether young people have suffered more than older people. I don’t see why it’s so hard to acknowledge that things are hard now in different ways that older people can’t really understand, and the same goes the other way. Just have empathy.
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As an older person, I completely understand because I see how things are impacting my kids.

I see where things are different for them. But at the same time they have made very good decisions economically.

My oldest commuted to college, so she finished school with no debt and a degree in a field that has great demand.

While I do empathize, it's also not 100% out of everyone's control as some seem to believe. And, I've read that more young people voted for trump. I don't understand how they believe that would help.
 
heelinhell said:
I agree with you

The mistake that Dems made was to downplay the "feelings" that the voters were suffering some unique hardship that others have not experienced under similar circumstances in the past.

Moreover, Dems made the mistake of "arguing" that their economic situation was actually improving since Trump left office. Dems made the mistake that voters were experiencing amnesia regarding the horrendous economic situation Trump left Biden on his way out the door.

The odds are that these working people will suffer greatly in the next Trump administration. The unknown is whether they will "feel" it.
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Part of the issue here is that they are arguing with people who don't seem to understand actual causes and how many components of the economy lag. The Biden administration and the public did suffer from what was left after trump and covid. Trump's first term got the benefit of a pretty strong economy from Obama, trump's policies and COVID didn't maintain that economy. And I do believe that COVID was probably more impactful than trump, his policies didn't improve anything.

People not understanding these things is why trump didn't get anywhere near the blame he deserved for the economy that he left Biden. It would have been nice if the people who were suffering from the inflation would have really looked at the causes of it and how much was done to keep it from being more painful.
 
Paine said:
When rent is outrageous and groceries are expensive, that leaves little room for anything else. Now add on insurance, internet, phone bill, car payment, gas, etc. All of which have gotten more expensive.

This is the part that breaks my heart for the youngins
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Xi Digs In With Top-Down Economic Plan Even as China Drowns in Debt​

Xi Jinping is bracing for a showdown, sticking with economic policies aimed at making China the world’s most powerful country​


“… Now, China is drowning in debt, reeling from a property bust that wiped out trillions of dollars of household wealth, and verging on a deflationary spiral. Growth has slowed, Western investment has collapsed and consumer confidence is near a record low.

And yet, as China squares off with the U.S. for a second showdown over trade, Xi is digging in. He’s convinced that his top-down approach to managing China’s economy, with plans to make it an even bigger industrial power, offers the best path for China to eventually surpass the U.S. in economic might.

People close to Beijing’s decision-making say nothing that has befallen China in recent years has changed Xi’s belief that the U.S. is fading as the singular superpower, and that China’s importance is rising on the world stage.

“Xi still believes that the East is rising and the West is in decline,” said a foreign-policy adviser in Beijing, referring to a pronouncement the leader made three years ago when China’s economy, driven by Western demand for its exports, experienced a short-lived recovery from the Covid pandemic. “It might just not be a straight line in his view.” …”
 
GF and I buy cable ,Netflix , Amazon, and much more. I have a lot of 35-40 yr olds in my life . None of them buy any of that stuff and as far as I can tell they can get about anything they want-often I suppose with a sign in from our accounts LOL. I am too technologically lazy to figure it out
 
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