FBI reports violent crime is down in 2023

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nycfan

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Violent crime was down about 3% from 2022 to 2023 and property crime took a similar drop of 2.4%, the FBI reported in its annual "Summary of Crime in the Nation."

The most serious crimes went down significantly: Murder and non-negligent manslaughter were down an estimated 11.6%, while rape decreased by an estimated 9.4%.
 
(Cont’d)

“…
Among property crimes, burglary decreased by an estimated 7.6%.

Motor vehicle theft, however, was up by an estimated 12.6% between 2022 and 2023.

Recorded incidents of shoplifting were also up: from 999,394 in 2022 to 1,149,336 in 2023, which is roughly the same level of incidents reported in 2019, before the pandemic. (Store closures and COVID-19 security measures likely decreased shoplifting in 2020 and 2021, and may have affected 2022 incidents as well.)

Public perception of crime is often out of step with the facts, especially in the age of social media, ease of digital communications between neighbors and doorbell cameras when Americans may be more aware of individual crimes than they would have been in the past.

But the violent crime rate dropped from 2022 to 2023, from 377.1 violent crimes per 100,000 people in 2022 to 363.8 violent crimes per 100,000 people in 2023, the new FBI data shows.
 
nycfan said:


Violent crime was down about 3% from 2022 to 2023 and property crime took a similar drop of 2.4%, the FBI reported in its annual "Summary of Crime in the Nation."

The most serious crimes went down significantly: Murder and non-negligent manslaughter were down an estimated 11.6%, while rape decreased by an estimated 9.4%.
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This is unpossible. I saw an ad this weekend where Dan Bishop promised me crime was WAY up.
 
That's because the FBI is part of the Deep State and they're hiding all of the crime to help Kamala Harris win the election.
 
nycfan said:


Violent crime was down about 3% from 2022 to 2023 and property crime took a similar drop of 2.4%, the FBI reported in its annual "Summary of Crime in the Nation."

The most serious crimes went down significantly: Murder and non-negligent manslaughter were down an estimated 11.6%, while rape decreased by an estimated 9.4%.
Click to expand...

Can't be true JrDick and the Drumpet said they saw crime on the TV, so it must be bad...

:unsure: :sick::mad:
 
Gift link to the WSJ counter-argument: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/contrar...6?st=HzGbmr&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

"The nation’s largest crime survey says otherwise: Crime rates haven’t been falling, and urban crime is far worse than it was in the pre-George Floyd era.

The new findings were released this month by the National Crime Victimization Survey. Run by the Bureau of Justice Statistics and administered by the Census Bureau, the NCVS dates to the Nixon administration and is one of the largest federal surveys on any topic. It asks some 230,000 U.S. residents annually whether they’ve been the victims of crimes. It then asks about the nature of the crime, whether it was reported to the police, the demographics of the perpetrator and other particulars.

The NCVS report for 2023 finds no statistically significant evidence that violent crime or property crime is dropping in America. Excluding simple assault—the type of violent crime least likely to be charged as a felony—the violent crime rate in 2023 was 19% higher than in 2019, the last year before the defund-the-police movement swept the country.

But crime hasn’t risen equally across the nation. America’s recent crime spike has been concentrated in urban areas. These are the areas in which leftist prosecutors have gained the strongest footholds, where police have been the most heavily scrutinized, and where lax enforcement and prosecution have become common.

The results aren’t pretty. According to the NCVS, the urban violent-crime rate increased 40% from 2019 to 2023. Excluding simple assault, the urban violent-crime rate rose 54% over that span. From 2022 to 2023, the urban violent-crime rate didn’t change to a statistically significant degree, so these higher crime rates appear to be the new norm in America’s cities. ..."
 
nycfan said:
Gift link to the WSJ counter-argument: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/contrar...6?st=HzGbmr&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

"The nation’s largest crime survey says otherwise: Crime rates haven’t been falling, and urban crime is far worse than it was in the pre-George Floyd era.

The new findings were released this month by the National Crime Victimization Survey. Run by the Bureau of Justice Statistics and administered by the Census Bureau, the NCVS dates to the Nixon administration and is one of the largest federal surveys on any topic. It asks some 230,000 U.S. residents annually whether they’ve been the victims of crimes. It then asks about the nature of the crime, whether it was reported to the police, the demographics of the perpetrator and other particulars.

The NCVS report for 2023 finds no statistically significant evidence that violent crime or property crime is dropping in America. Excluding simple assault—the type of violent crime least likely to be charged as a felony—the violent crime rate in 2023 was 19% higher than in 2019, the last year before the defund-the-police movement swept the country.

But crime hasn’t risen equally across the nation. America’s recent crime spike has been concentrated in urban areas. These are the areas in which leftist prosecutors have gained the strongest footholds, where police have been the most heavily scrutinized, and where lax enforcement and prosecution have become common.

The results aren’t pretty. According to the NCVS, the urban violent-crime rate increased 40% from 2019 to 2023. Excluding simple assault, the urban violent-crime rate rose 54% over that span. From 2022 to 2023, the urban violent-crime rate didn’t change to a statistically significant degree, so these higher crime rates appear to be the new norm in America’s cities. ..."
Click to expand...

EDIT: My bad, looks like the methodology change won't take place till 2026.
 
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Ddseddse said:
They 100% are counting on you not doing enough digging to know that the NCVS methodology was completely revamped with resulting in higher reporting rates in a freaking AB comparison test: https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/bjs/grants/303980.pdf

I hate these ******* liars so much!

8.1 How Did the Redesign Affect the Victimization Rates?
The Field Test was designed to compare the current NCVS instrument and procedures (Condition 1)with the redesigned survey (Condition 2). With the exception of RSA, the redesigned survey was not intended to significantly change estimates of victimization relative to the ongoing NCVS. The analysis in Chapter 4 showed that Condition 2 did significantly increase the rates for both violent and property crimes. For property crimes, the “Other Theft” category exhibited a substantial increase. We believe that this increase is the result of changing the way screener probes are administered. On the NCVS, respondents are read a long list of probes before being asked for a NCVS Redesign: Topline Report 72 response, while the redesigned screener asked respondents to react to subsets of the probes. The Condition 2 procedure is more conversational, and it may promote better recall by asking the respondent to consider each subset of examples separately. This approach also makes it easier for both the interviewer and respondent to keep track of incidents as they are recalled.
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Jurassic Park Ian Malcom GIF
 
Regardless of whether the methodology has changed or not, this "data" requires us to believe there is a huge spike in violent crime that isn't being reported to the police. It seems incredibly unlikely that reported violent crime would be going down at the same time that actual violent crime is seeing a massive increase.

elections stand GIF
 
But that being said, per the NCVS, violent crime went down by 12.4% last year in Urban areas. But you wouldn't know that from reading the WSJ editorial, because they want to cherry pick facts to keep you ignorant...

EDIT: Not sure why my screenshot is not linking correct. Basically 33.4 incidents per 1000 people in 2022 and 29.6 incidents per 1000 people in 2023.


Also, the FBI report and the NCVS are pretty much in lockstep:
FBI says Violent crime was down about 3% from 2022 to 2023 [NCVS says down 4.3%, but since NCVS unlike FBI data is a survey, standard error applies] and property crime took a similar drop of 2.4% [NCVS says up 0.2% which is statistically insignificant], the FBI reported in its annual "Summary of Crime in the Nation."
 

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Enigma94 said:
So what manipulation of the stats is the WSJ doing to get the 40% increase figure?
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Violent crimes per 1000 people:
2018: 26.5
2019: 21.1
2020: 19.0
2021: 24.5
2022: 33.4
2023: 29.6

It's a technically correct stat. 29.6 is 40% larger than 21.1.

The author is just cherry picking the worst stats they can find between cherry picked years.

I shouldn't say "just", the author has a valid point. He just wants to use that valid point to paint America's urban cities as a dystopian lawless wasteland, which is simply not correct.
 
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