Future Electoral Shifts - Blue -> Red States

Heelsandeers

Heelsandeers

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In this scenario, WI/MI/PA + NV aren't enough for a Dem EC win.

Putting TX in play and bringing FL back aside, any scenario where Blue states are hemorrhaging EC votes seems.... not great.

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Florida is trending the wrong way. It's gone for the next 12 years or more. Forget about it. Dem order of priority for states to improve in should be:

  1. Blue wall states
  2. North Carolina (big opportunity for a Senate pickup in 2026 too; Cooper running?)
  3. Georgia
  4. Arizona and Nevada
Beyond that group, I think the places Dems could realistically target for long-term swings back in their direction (don't think any of these realistically could go their way in 2028 absent a true Republican disaster) are:

  1. Other Midwest states (Ohio, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas)
  2. Texas (though I'm honestly till skeptical unless Hispanic voters swing back hard to Dems)
 
Democrats have to win the hispanic vote and start to win back white working class voters. We have to get competitive again in places like Montana, the Dakotas, etc.
Really, it's going to all be about Texas. Get Texas to be winnable and the rest doesnt matter at all.
 
ETA... WI/MI/PA + NV wouldn't be enough given the above (263 vs 275 in that scenario)

Basically looking at a scenario where one of AZ/GA/NC is essential + Nevada or two of AZ/GA/NC
 
The first election with the new census won't be until 2032. It is really not worth worrying about because so much can change.

In 2004, when Bush won a second term, he won Virginia by 8 points. That was no surprise, given that Republicans won Virginia in every presidential election since 1964. That was also the last time the GOP won a presidential election in Virginia.

Other states have gone through similar shifts -- either way, of course. Arizona was one of the reddest states in the whole country, until it became purple. Florida used to be a slightly bluish purple.

Let's worry about 2032 in, oh, I don't know, 2030 if we even make it that far
 
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