Israel Hamas War | Trump threatens “hell to pay” if hostages are not released by Jan 20

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If Hezbollah had the kind of videos on Bibi Netanyah that Putin/FSB apparently has of Donald Trump, then they could not have managed Israel's response to the October 7th attacks to achieve their goals any better.
 
Bibi has always been a loose canon with one thing in mind - power. And retention of power.

The challenge continued to leverage Netanyahu to sign the Arab Coalition, US, and UN backed accord and bring order and transition.

Keep in mind that this is all connected:

Putin/Russia + Iran + Hamas + Hezbollah + NK + *Xi + #Trump + #Bibi

vs.

Israeli citizens + Ukraine + US + Euro NATO + Arab Coalition (Egypt + Jordan + Saudis)


*Xi is passively involved and has one eye on the M.E. and Ukraine and one eye on Taiwan

#Trump and Bibi depend on chaos to retain or acquire power


We've been in a cyber to proxy World War since 2014...
 


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Had rockets fired at a U.S. soccer field killed a dozen U.S. children, I very much doubt anyone in the world would bother to try to prevent us from retaliating… OTOH, we’ve lost that many kids and more to the domestic terror of school shootings over and over and accepted that our only choice is to do nothing but pray it doesn’t happen to our kid.

And the situation Israel is almost impossibly complicated — this particular attack just happened to be successful in an ongoing asymmetrical war where the Israeli military has killed far more Palestinian children than are being mourned on this soccer field. As a flashpoint moment, I still wouldn’t blame them for retaliating in response to the tragedy on their side but at some point it has to be viewed in the wider context. They have to change the direction of this conflict, however much Hamas and Hezbollah remain their mortal enemies. They clearly don’t have the capacity/political will if you want to call it that to destroy either faction, so they have to work within the confines of what they can do absent actual, full-scale genocide.
 
nycfan said:


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Had rockets fired at a U.S. soccer field killed a dozen U.S. children, I very much doubt anyone in the world would bother to try to prevent us from retaliating… OTOH, we’ve lost that many kids and more to the domestic terror of school shootings over and over and accepted that our only choice is to do nothing but pray it doesn’t happen to our kid.

And the situation Israel is almost impossibly complicated — this particular attack just happened to be successful in an ongoing asymmetrical war where the Israeli military has killed far more Palestinian children than are being mourned on this soccer field. As a flashpoint moment, I still wouldn’t blame them for retaliating in response to the tragedy on their side but at some point it has to be viewed in the wider context. They have to change the direction of this conflict, however much Hamas and Hezbollah remain their mortal enemies. They clearly don’t have the capacity/political will if you want to call it that to destroy either faction, so they have to work within the confines of what they can do absent actual, full-scale genocide.
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Nasrallah seems to be more reasonable than most of Israel's adversaries. I wonder how well a communication would go over saying something like, "we need to do something that looks spectacular and effective, but don't want to escalate this further. We're coming for your launchers in 3 hours, your men can stay or leave but you've been warned."
 
nycfan said:


——

Had rockets fired at a U.S. soccer field killed a dozen U.S. children, I very much doubt anyone in the world would bother to try to prevent us from retaliating… OTOH, we’ve lost that many kids and more to the domestic terror of school shootings over and over and accepted that our only choice is to do nothing but pray it doesn’t happen to our kid.

And the situation Israel is almost impossibly complicated — this particular attack just happened to be successful in an ongoing asymmetrical war where the Israeli military has killed far more Palestinian children than are being mourned on this soccer field. As a flashpoint moment, I still wouldn’t blame them for retaliating in response to the tragedy on their side but at some point it has to be viewed in the wider context. They have to change the direction of this conflict, however much Hamas and Hezbollah remain their mortal enemies. They clearly don’t have the capacity/political will if you want to call it that to destroy either faction, so they have to work within the confines of what they can do absent actual, full-scale genocide.
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I definitely think Israel should and will retaliate but the retaliation needs to be well thought out.

When the Houthis sent a rocket into Israel earlier this month, Israel bombed a port facility. I think that us a better response than knocking out a bunch of civilians that is just going to drive more retaliation.
 


Sounds like this is in response to a gruesome sexual violence attack on a Palestinian prisoner.
 
Can anyone explain our diplomatic policies vis a vis Iran since 1979 other than "isolation?" The Iran nuclear deal framework was supposed to re-engage Iran with the Western world - we pulled out of that deal and then assassinated their top General. Meanwhile, Iran has spent the better part of the last 20 years killing Americans and our allies via proxies in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Lebanon, Sudan/east Africa and in Gaza...among others - they've gone back and forth on a war with Saudi Arabia while flirting with possible liberal reforms. The only major changes are that their power and influence continues to grow regardless of any economic or military pressures tossed on them by the USA and its allies.

So, what are we doing?

There is no October 7th attack without Iran. There is no Hezbollah without Iran (meaning, there is likely a more stable Lebanon). There is almost certainly a different regime in Syria without Iran (and obviously Russia). Our policies have not brought about positive change. What direction should we take going forward? Should we engage in a "hug Iran" strategy or should we rip off the bandage and engage in regime change?

I'm not advocating any strategy - quite frankly, I have no idea what to do with this situation...I can only recognize that what we HAVE done has failed. But this issue should be of paramount importance for both sides of the Israeli / Palestinian conflict since Iran plays a significant role in prolonging military engagement.
 
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I guess I should point out - because I'm sure someone will raise it - that I don't think "American Isolationism" is the answer. Without even referencing the region's global energy supply importance - the United States has important allies in the region including Israel but also Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon (to some extent), the UAE, Qatar, and of course Turkiye - who also happens to be a NATO member and for whom the USA has a treaty obligation to protect. That doesn't mean I support Neo-Conservatism like "Nation Building," but the USA has very important and strategic alliances in the region - some of whom our more important "adversaries" like China and Russia would be happy to exploit if we turned our backs on the region.
 
Batt Boy said:
the war ends when the hostages are returned
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It's possible but what else happens? What about all the hostages Israel is keeping? Is Israel going to leave Gaza? Are they going to let Gaza govern itself? Are they going to flatten Gaza some more and expel the Palestinians to Egypt?

I'm sure Israel getting their hostages back is one of the terms of the ceasefire, but that can't be the only thing. There are other things to be worked out.
 

‘The destruction is massive’: Khan Younis residents return to rubble after Israeli military withdraws​


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