Latin America Politics General Thread

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CRHeel94

CRHeel94

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Vital elections to take place in Venezuela tomorrow?

Why are they important?
  • Maduro has been in power since 2013. He extends the same regime line of Hugo Chavez who took power in 1999. So we're talking almost 25 years of populist rule. During that time the Venezuela economy has cratered, squandering its incredible oil wealth.
  • During that time, Venezuela has bankrolled pretty much every leftist regime in Latin America, propping up several strongmen during that time with oil money. In the past years Venezuela has cozied up to Russia for geopolitical purposes. Also, China has bailed out Venezuela economically to the point that it has taken equity in several state companies.
  • Its also speculated that Maduro has been allied with the drug cartels and facilitates their operations to the US and Europe.
The opposition has had strong showings of support in the last weeks. This past week Maduro turned away various international observers, including from friendly countries like Colombia and Brasil (Lula has pleaded to Maduro to allow for free elections). While this may be the best shot to oust Maduro, I have very little faith that there will not be massive fraud tomorrow. The votes are in, they just have to count them.

apnews.com

Why Venezuela's presidential election should matter to the rest of the world

Venezuelans have a crucial decision ahead of them. On Sunday, they decide whether to give President Nicolas Maduro a third six-year term in office or to allow the opposition a chance to deliver on their promise to undo the policies that caused economic collapse and forced millions to emigrate.
apnews.com apnews.com
 
Last edited:
CRHeel94 said:
Vital elections to take place in Venezuela tomorrow?

Why are they important?
  • Maduro has been in power since 2013. He extends the same regime line of Hugo Chavez who took power in 1999. So we're talking almost 25 years of populist rule. During that time the Venezuela economy has cratered, squandering its incredible oil wealth.
  • During that time, Venezuela has bankrolled pretty much every leftist regime in Latin America, propping up several strongmen during that time with oil money. In the past years Venezuela has cozied up to Russia for geopolitical purposes. Also, China has bailed out Venezuela economically to the point that it has taken equity in several state companies.
  • Its also speculated that Maduro has been allied with the drug cartels and facilitates their operations to the US and Europe.
The opposition has had strong showings of support in the last weeks. This past week Maduro turned away various international observers, including from friendly countries like Colombia and Brasil (Lula has pleaded to Maduro to allow for free elections). While this may be the best shot to oust Maduro, I have very little faith that there will not be massive fraud tomorrow. The votes are in, they just have to count them.

apnews.com

Why Venezuela's presidential election should matter to the rest of the world

Venezuelans have a crucial decision ahead of them. On Sunday, they decide whether to give President Nicolas Maduro a third six-year term in office or to allow the opposition a chance to deliver on their promise to undo the policies that caused economic collapse and forced millions to emigrate.
apnews.com apnews.com
Click to expand...
How does Venezuela bankroll anyone with a currency that is virtually worthless?
 
They use to do it with oil under Chavez, less so under Maduro. They would give friendly governments all sorts of concessions (discounted price, deferred payments, distribution deals). For example, between 2007 and 2016, Venezuela shipped an estimated $3.7 Billion to Nicaragua. 50% of those shipments had to be paid within 90 days, while the other 50% has to be paid within 23 years (with a financing cost of 2%). The government would sell these oil products in the local market at market prices through an intermediary that was set up by the Ortega regime (Albanisa). They would take the profits of those sales to fund all sorts of social programs (housing, sports, energy subsidies, transportation subsidies, purchase of media companies, etc); in its heyday, an estimated $550 million dollars was invested in social programs. That same model was applied in Cuba, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Venezuela also used that oil money to bankroll opposition parties across South America.

The gravy train came to a halt in 2017 as Venezuela drastically reduced its oil shipments to its allies. International oil prices dropping was a big cause, but also gross mismanagement of Venezuela's PDVSA affected production output and margin. Sanctions from the US in 2019 also didn't help (more about that below), and Venezuela shifted its exports to Asian markets in an attempt to bolster its inflows (and curry favor with China). Some oil money still makes it into social programs, but it's estimated to have dropped to about $25MM (and it's no longer spent on social programs per se...more than anything sector incentives). In ost recent times, it is believed that financial aid from Venezuela has been linked to safe harbor practices for drug cartels.

The US dropped sanctions on Venezuela in October 2023 as an enticement to hold free elections. Maduro reneged on parts of the deal, which led to the US re-establishing sanctions in April.

www.argusmedia.com

* | Latest Market News | Argus Media

The US administration today reimposed sanctions targeting Venezuela's oil exports and energy sector investments and set a deadline of 31 May for most foreign companies to wind down business with state-owned PdV.
www.argusmedia.com www.argusmedia.com
 
CRHeel94 said:
They use to do it with oil under Chavez, less so under Maduro. They would give friendly governments all sorts of concessions (discounted price, deferred payments, distribution deals). For example, between 2007 and 2016, Venezuela shipped an estimated $3.7 Billion to Nicaragua. 50% of those shipments had to be paid within 90 days, while the other 50% has to be paid within 23 years (with a financing cost of 2%). The government would sell these oil products in the local market at market prices through an intermediary that was set up by the Ortega regime (Albanisa). They would take the profits of those sales to fund all sorts of social programs (housing, sports, energy subsidies, transportation subsidies, purchase of media companies, etc); in its heyday, an estimated $550 million dollars was invested in social programs. That same model was applied in Cuba, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Venezuela also used that oil money to bankroll opposition parties across South America.

The gravy train came to a halt in 2017 as Venezuela drastically reduced its oil shipments to its allies. International oil prices dropping was a big cause, but also gross mismanagement of Venezuela's PDVSA affected production output and margin. Sanctions from the US in 2019 also didn't help (more about that below), and Venezuela shifted its exports to Asian markets in an attempt to bolster its inflows (and curry favor with China). Some oil money still makes it into social programs, but it's estimated to have dropped to about $25MM (and it's no longer spent on social programs per se...more than anything sector incentives). In ost recent times, it is believed that financial aid from Venezuela has been linked to safe harbor practices for drug cartels.

The US dropped sanctions on Venezuela in October 2023 as an enticement to hold free elections. Maduro reneged on parts of the deal, which led to the US re-establishing sanctions in April.

www.argusmedia.com

* | Latest Market News | Argus Media

The US administration today reimposed sanctions targeting Venezuela's oil exports and energy sector investments and set a deadline of 31 May for most foreign companies to wind down business with state-owned PdV.
www.argusmedia.com www.argusmedia.com
Click to expand...
It's all quite sad
 
CRHeel94 said:
They use to do it with oil under Chavez, less so under Maduro. They would give friendly governments all sorts of concessions (discounted price, deferred payments, distribution deals). For example, between 2007 and 2016, Venezuela shipped an estimated $3.7 Billion to Nicaragua. 50% of those shipments had to be paid within 90 days, while the other 50% has to be paid within 23 years (with a financing cost of 2%). The government would sell these oil products in the local market at market prices through an intermediary that was set up by the Ortega regime (Albanisa). They would take the profits of those sales to fund all sorts of social programs (housing, sports, energy subsidies, transportation subsidies, purchase of media companies, etc); in its heyday, an estimated $550 million dollars was invested in social programs. That same model was applied in Cuba, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Venezuela also used that oil money to bankroll opposition parties across South America.

The gravy train came to a halt in 2017 as Venezuela drastically reduced its oil shipments to its allies. International oil prices dropping was a big cause, but also gross mismanagement of Venezuela's PDVSA affected production output and margin. Sanctions from the US in 2019 also didn't help (more about that below), and Venezuela shifted its exports to Asian markets in an attempt to bolster its inflows (and curry favor with China). Some oil money still makes it into social programs, but it's estimated to have dropped to about $25MM (and it's no longer spent on social programs per se...more than anything sector incentives). In ost recent times, it is believed that financial aid from Venezuela has been linked to safe harbor practices for drug cartels.

The US dropped sanctions on Venezuela in October 2023 as an enticement to hold free elections. Maduro reneged on parts of the deal, which led to the US re-establishing sanctions in April.

www.argusmedia.com

* | Latest Market News | Argus Media

The US administration today reimposed sanctions targeting Venezuela's oil exports and energy sector investments and set a deadline of 31 May for most foreign companies to wind down business with state-owned PdV.
www.argusmedia.com www.argusmedia.com
Click to expand...
Always appreciate your posts about Central and South America.

I figured Venezuela was using oil shipments to curry favor. Nice to see confirmation.

Thanks.
 
nycfan said:
Click to expand...

Good God. With that kind of lead it's going to be difficult to steal the election if that's what Maduro had planned to do. It will be interesting to see if he actually turns power over to the opposition or tries to stay in office somehow.
 
uncgriff said:
Just vote this time and you will never have to vote again.
Click to expand...

Trump Smirk Raised Eyebrows GIF | GIFDB.com
 
I watched the CNE read the results late last night. Knew something was up when they announced the numbers; that 51% figure was right on the nose to give Maduro a majority (though Venezuela law has no second round). Haven't checked lately, but early in the morning the CNE had not shared the results by election table (the opposition kept records). I expect things to get real messy down there this week.
 
CRHeel94 said:
I watched the CNE read the results late last night. Knew something was up when they announced the numbers; that 51% figure was right on the nose to give Maduro a majority (though Venezuela law has no second round). Haven't checked lately, but early in the morning the CNE had not shared the results by election table (the opposition kept records). I expect things to get real messy down there this week.
Click to expand...


Last I checked the CNE site was down.
 
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