NC Supreme Court race - Riggs ahead +623 | Recount to come

rodoheel

rodoheel

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I know we've discussed elsewhere, but I think this deserves its own thread to discuss over the coming weeks.

The NC Supreme Court race between Allison Riggs (D) and Jefferson Griffin (R) is currently separated by 24 votes out of over 5.5 million cast. The official winner will likely be preliminarily determined this week after the last few counties finish their county canvasses (which, per state law, occurred this past Friday - ignore the usual idiots wildly claiming that NC still counting votes is new evidence of voter fraud). But whoever is called the winner after the count is done, there will absolutely be a recount. There may also be litigation over disputed votes. So I think it will likely be a while before we know the outcome.

The NC Supreme Court will still have a clear Republican majority either way, and Dems cannot flip the court back until 2028 at the earliest either way. But to have a realistic chance of doing so, Dems need to hold on to the two seats they have (the other Dem seat will be up for election in 2026).
 
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I wonder if this is some kind of "record for closeness" in an election say over 5 mill votes ?
 
nycfan said:
As of late Friday, here are remaining outstanding final results:

IMG_3631.jpeg
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Votes counted through last report last week in those Counties:

Chatham - Riggs 29,277 - Griffin 21,881
Craven - Griffin 31,785 - Riggs 22,268
Cumberland - Riggs 79,640 - Griffin 56,863
Forsyth - Riggs 112,969 - Griffin 83,740
Randolph - Griffin 56,663 - Riggs 17,394
Yancey - Griffin 7,019 - Riggs 3,990
 
I imagine Cumberland County is the one of those counties most likely to still have any significant number of votes to process through the county canvass. The main votes "counted" at this stage are (1) provisional ballots cast on election day for which additional proof needed to be obtained or additional adjudication done at canvass, and (2) overseas military ballots sent before election day that could be received up to the date before the canvass. Cumberland is obviously likely to have a disproportionately high number of the latter compared to other counties due to the huge military base there. But in any event, we are probably talking a couple hundred more total votes, at most, across the state.
 
Can’t believe how incredibly close this election is. I voted for Riggs and I’ve never felt like my vote counted more!
 
Looks like she’s going to win her race for NC Supreme Court, capping a pretty strong election cycle for Democrats in the Tar Heel State. A night that included breaking the republican supermajority in the state legislature.

Governor ✅
Lt. Governor ✅
Attorney General ✅
Superintendent of Public Instruction ✅
Secretary of State ✅
 
dukeman92 said:
Looks like she’s going to win her race for NC Supreme Court, capping a pretty strong election cycle for Democrats in the Tar Heel State. A night that included breaking the republican supermajority in the state legislature.

Governor ✅
Lt. Governor ✅
Attorney General ✅
Superintendent of Public Instruction ✅
Secretary of State ✅
Click to expand...
+1. Kudos to NC Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton. She's the youngest state party chair in the nation, and she's just getting started. Looks like there may be hope for NC Democrats after all. If they can just win a majority on the State Supreme Court in 2028 and it can rule against the extreme gerrymandering for the state legislature and congressional districts and force them to redraw them then Democrats might have a chance to win back the legislature in my lifetime. I know that's a lot of "ifs", but at least their performance in the state this year does give me some hope.
 
Going to merge this thread with one already covering this specific election (there will undoubtedly be a recount to come, just like the last NC Supreme Court race during a presidential election year was so close a recount was requested).
 
Icky Mettle said:
Riggs is up by 623 and it is my understanding that all counties have reported.

There will be a recount followed by legal challenges so this one won’t be settled for a little bit.
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In 2020, the race for an NC Supreme Court seat was even closer. After the recount, Beasley lost by 401 votes (she was losing by a thin margin going in).

Recounts of elections this century have shown that a race probably has to be within less than 500 votes (0.06% of ballots cast per study below) for there to be a realistic chance that the result will be flipped in a recount.

“… Recounts [2000 - 2023] resulted in only three reversals, or one out of every 2,310 statewide elections. All three reversals occurred when the initial margin was less than 0.06% of all votes cast for the top two candidates….

Statewide recounts resulted in an average margin shift of 551 votes between the frontrunners, representing 0.03% of the vote. Recounts typically widen the gap between the top two candidates instead of decreasing it…

Only three out of the 36 recounts from 2000 to 2023 resulted in changed outcomes. These elections all had exceptionally close margins in the initial count. …”

Washington Governor 2004 — DiRossi (R) was +261 going into recount, margin shifted 390 towards Grigoire (D), who won +129

Vermont Auditor 2006 — R was +137, recount shifted by 239 to the Dem who won (“… Most of the changes occurred in localities that had inaccurately recorded ballot counts by hand on election night. …”)

Minnesota Senate 2008 - Coleman (R) +215, after recount Al Franken won +225 (“… After a months-long legal process that hinged largely on questions of voter intent in filling out paper ballots …”)

fairvote.org

An analysis of statewide election recounts, 2000-2023 - FairVote

fairvote.org fairvote.org
 
nycfan said:
Going to merge this thread with one already covering this specific election (there will undoubtedly be a recount to come, just like the last NC Supreme Court race during a presidential election year was so close a recount was requested).
Click to expand...

My fault. I didn’t see it!
 
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