One important thing to remember

[superrific]

We are staring down a constitutional crisis and wondering whether Trump will defy a court order. Accordingly, people are freaking out, as well they should be.

But there's one line of defense that isn't getting enough attention and it might prove to be a bulwark. It's sort of pathetic to have to rely on this, but in an important sense, the US is too big to fail.

If Trump were to defy a court order and arrogate the judicial power to the executive branch, I imagine there will be a massive financial crisis. The world economy will tank. Treasury bonds are considered risk-free assets (or mostly so) precisely because of our large economy and political stability. Who is going to want to hold Treasuries when Trump could unilaterally decide not to pay them? Who is going to want dollar assets when you can't make reliable contracts because the courts are no longer impartial?

We saw Trump blink when the markets plunged after Canada/Mexico tariffs. I don't know what will happen next week with the reciprocal tariffs, but I suspect it will be similar. One would think that the billionaires running the government would not like to see a financial collapse.

 

[MendotoManteo]

Whether smart or not, this is just one reason why I slowly got out of the market (other than 401K) throughout September and October. Granted, I didn't have a lot in it, but I figured we were either heading towards another moment of political violence (had he lost) or to a tanking economy (had he won).

Regarding the billionaires running the government, logic and convention would both suggest that you're right. That they won't be on board once things become clear. But consider too these two factors: tax cuts and crypto. I think a lot of them also suspect (probably rightfully so) they'll just get bailed out again by our tax dollars come the next crisis.

 

[dukeman92]