Post-Roe Chaos in states | proposed Amarillo restrictions could have national impact
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superrific
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Not to rain on anyone's parade, but there was an article on 538 not long ago arguing that the reverse coattails theory -- i.e. the idea that ballot measures drive turnout -- was pretty much unfounded.
abcnews.go.com
Unfounded doesn't mean false. There's not a lot of evidence on this point, but the data available isn't exactly encouraging. The best argument is that abortion bans are especially threatening to young people, who need -- let's say, extra encouragement -- in turning out to vote. But climate change is also threatening to young people and they still don't vote.
According to that piece, ballot measures can help excite a party base around issues that the party itself -- or the candidates -- don't really want to touch, or at least not emphasize. So Bush in 04 did well in Ohio, where there was an anti-gay ballot initiative, in part because it provided a way to target a message to evangelical voters without that message coming from the candidate. And one can imagine how a climate change ballot measure could perform that function today. But Dems already want to talk about abortion! It's one of the top issues. They don't need help from initiatives, nor do they need subterfuge.
Abortion-rights ballot measures may not help Democrats as much as they think
Most abortion-rights measures on the ballot this fall are likely to pass, but there’s no guarantee that their success will rub off on Democratic candidates.
Unfounded doesn't mean false. There's not a lot of evidence on this point, but the data available isn't exactly encouraging. The best argument is that abortion bans are especially threatening to young people, who need -- let's say, extra encouragement -- in turning out to vote. But climate change is also threatening to young people and they still don't vote.
According to that piece, ballot measures can help excite a party base around issues that the party itself -- or the candidates -- don't really want to touch, or at least not emphasize. So Bush in 04 did well in Ohio, where there was an anti-gay ballot initiative, in part because it provided a way to target a message to evangelical voters without that message coming from the candidate. And one can imagine how a climate change ballot measure could perform that function today. But Dems already want to talk about abortion! It's one of the top issues. They don't need help from initiatives, nor do they need subterfuge.
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“
On a recent Saturday outside a Planned Parenthood clinic in Fairview Heights, Illinois, a woman wearing a reflective orange vest and body camera flagged down a car pulling into the facility.
“Hi, can I talk to you a second?” the woman, Sheri King, said to the driver, reaching for a pamphlet in a pocket of her vest with information about alternatives to abortion and birth control. “I’m Sheri.”
A Planned Parenthood volunteer bolted toward the car, urging the driver to keep moving.
“They’re not with the clinic,” the volunteer yelled.
Instead, King and a partner were with Coalition Life, a nonprofit anti-abortion group that is based in Missouri and raises most of its money there. Almost every minute the abortion clinic in Illinois is open, Coalition Life representatives are out front, aiming to intercept people seeking abortions and persuade them to change their minds.
… The group’s revenue has surged in recent years, thanks in part to a lucrative Missouri tax credit for pregnancy resource centers, of which it is one. Following a massive expansion of the tax credit program by the state legislature in 2019, donors to Coalition Life and similar nonprofits can receive tax credits worth 70% of their donation amount, significantly boosting the groups’ fundraising efforts across Missouri.
…
The tax credit has led to a growing financial cost to Missouri taxpayers, with over $11.2 million in tax credits authorized in the past year alone. Before the change, the tax credit had been capped at $3.5 million a year. When combined with the $8.6 million the state directly allocates to pregnancy centers, Missouri has become a leader in per capita investment in anti-abortion centers.
While Missouri does not contribute the most overall to anti-abortion groups — Texas, with its much larger population, leads the nation with a $140 million outlay over two years — it stands out for the investment relative to its size. Still, it pales in comparison with this year’s nearly $52 billion budget.
The money raised through tax credits is intended to support services for clients facing unwanted or unplanned pregnancies. Those services include pregnancy testing, counseling, emotional and material support and other related services.
Coalition Life has adapted to the post-Roe landscape by paying people to work outside abortion clinics in other states. The group claims that it refers many of the women it convinces not to have abortions to its pregnancy center in Missouri, just outside St. Louis. There, it provides ultrasounds and counseling and continues to see mothers until their babies are born — sometimes longer.
Because this center is more expensive to operate, and most clients are Missouri residents, the group said most of the money raised in Missouri is spent within the state. There was no independent way to confirm the claim. …”
I’m going to risk jinxing Democrats and a host of reproduction freedom ballot initiatives across the US.
After the Democrats win and the ballot initiatives pass, we need to make sure that Democrats and Liberals and Progressives AND MODERATES don’t just shrug their shoulders in future years and say/think, “We won the abortion/reproductive freedom battle. It’s no longer a concern.”
That’s what happened to Roe, the Voting Rights Act, Chevron, etc.
The right-wing will be relentless in trying to turn the clock back to the ‘50’s.
After the Democrats win and the ballot initiatives pass, we need to make sure that Democrats and Liberals and Progressives AND MODERATES don’t just shrug their shoulders in future years and say/think, “We won the abortion/reproductive freedom battle. It’s no longer a concern.”
That’s what happened to Roe, the Voting Rights Act, Chevron, etc.
The right-wing will be relentless in trying to turn the clock back to the ‘50’s.
Mulberry Heel
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Definitely, and he's going to need all the help he can get. Of all the Democratic incumbents, he's the one in the most danger right now, and if he wins it will likely be by a paper-thin margin.
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Arkansas Supreme Court Rejects Abortion Rights Initiative
"The Arkansas Supreme Court blocked an abortion-rights initiative from appearing on the state's ballot this fall, upholding a July decision by the secretary of state to reject the measure for not following rules related to paid signature gatherers," NBC News reports."The decision means Arkansas
politicalwire.com
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The Arkansas Supreme Court blocked an abortion-rights initiative from appearing on the state’s ballot this fall, upholding a July decision by the secretary of state to reject the measure for not following rules related to paid signature gatherers,” NBC News reports.
“The decision means Arkansas will not be among the handful of states where voters will have the chance to weigh in on abortion-related measures on the November ballot, as the court’s majority opinion denies “further relief” to the group behind the proposed constitutional amendment.”
HeelInTheOzarks
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One of my old coworkers is actually in the leadership of the group who was putting this on the ballot.Arkansas Supreme Court Rejects Abortion Rights Initiative
"The Arkansas Supreme Court blocked an abortion-rights initiative from appearing on the state's ballot this fall, upholding a July decision by the secretary of state to reject the measure for not following rules related to paid signature gatherers," NBC News reports."The decision means Arkansas
“
The Arkansas Supreme Court blocked an abortion-rights initiative from appearing on the state’s ballot this fall, upholding a July decision by the secretary of state to reject the measure for not following rules related to paid signature gatherers,” NBC News reports.
“The decision means Arkansas will not be among the handful of states where voters will have the chance to weigh in on abortion-related measures on the November ballot, as the court’s majority opinion denies “further relief” to the group behind the proposed constitutional amendment.”
They followed the laws to a T. This isn't even about how many signatures, who got the signatures, or anything else. It's being tossed on a technicality that is saying that paid canvassers (who got a small percentage of the signatures) weren't given specific copies of the rules on signature-gathering.
I think the vote would have been VERY, VERY close here. Not sure it would have passed but it absolutely had a chance.
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I hate that Arkansas came up with this BS reason to keep this off the ballot. But, . . ., of all the states for this to happen and if it had to happen in one state, Arkansas is probably the best. The underhanded way this was handled will probably do more good than if it had made it to the ballot.
HeelInTheOzarks
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How is that? They’re going to make sure it never gets on the ballot now.
But even if it had passed, the state legislature would try to overturn it. They did the same a few years ago for medical marijuana. It passed on a ballot initiative and then the supermajority legislature decided they knew better and attempted to overrule it with new laws until constituents got angry.
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Your response is well taken. My response was not only unclear, but was confusing and borderline unintelligible. What I was trying to say is that, for 2024, Arkansas is a lost cause and if I had to pick one state where an abortion referendum was going to be kept off the ballot, it would be Arkansas because there is no way an abortion referendum was going to turn out enough votes to affect the other races on the ballot. Don't get me wrong. I support abortion rights. But in 2024, in addition to that general support, I believe abortion referendums on the ballot improve the chances of Democratic candidates on the same ballot. So losing Arkansas this election cycle is preferrable to any of the other states that will have an abortion referendum on the ballot. I hope this is at least a tad more understandable than my previous failed effort.
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After Roe v. Wade was overturned, I had some friends who very naively thought that now that anti-abortion conservatives had gotten what they wanted (which was a false premise to begin with), that dems could focus on other things to attract them to the dem platform wrt those other things.
First of all, those folks were never going to be attracted to the dem platform regardless of what the dems’ position on abortion was. On top of that, overturning Roe was just the beginning for them. That. was not the endgame.It was step one. After that, they would fight to ensure that abortion was banned in its entirety in each and every state. Then they would fight for a federal ban. And throughout all that, they would continue to fight against the forces that would fight to overturn Dobbs.
HeelInTheOzarks
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Arkansans are really weird. They hate democrats, but love democratic IDEAS.
Legal weed being a great example, or increasing minimum wage. They’ll vote for policies that are left while happily electing Sarah Sanders as governor.
So while I am under no illusion Trump won’t win by 25 points, I do think this measure would’ve had a TON of crossover votes, as weird as that may be to imagine.
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Yes. And abortion was just a first step into turning government into a theocracy of "Christian" values. See the 10 commandments, book bans, et. al.