SCOTUS Catch-all |

[superrific]

I just read the oral argument. I don't think it's as bad as others have made it out to be. The fact that they ordered rehearing on this question is doing a lot of the work for the pessimistic view. And it should do more of the work: look at what they do, not what they say. But the questions -- outside of Alito -- did not seem all that hostile.

On the other hand, Jackson, Kagan and Sotomayor talked much more than the conservative justices, which might reflect their sense that they have a lot of convincing to do.

 

[dukeman92]

It feels like we're just rearranging chairs on the deck of the Titanic at this point. For years, the Democratic party has been playing by an archaic set of rules that the MAGATs abandoned a long time ago. I'm so pissed and utterly disappointed in the Dem ability to rise to this moment. Chuck Schumer is the biggest waste of space. I'm pretty sure you guys have heard of Graham Platner. He's the Maine oyster farmer who's entered the race to unseat Olympic Champion Pearl Clutcher Susan Collins. I find him engaging and communicating a message that seems to resonate with the working class. Hell, I'd vote for him. So what's the Dem establishment doing? Friggin Schumer has convinced the current Gov of Maine, Janet Mills to enter the race. She's SEVENTY SEVEN. I'm so sick and tired of Dems running geriatric candidates. It's hard to keep spirits up. WHEN they gut the Voting Rights Act and the MAGA states redistrict accordingly, that will add 20-30 seats for them in the house (a conservative estimate). That pretty much guarantees that the Dems will never regain power. How are we supposed to keep our sprits up when the MAGATs have cemented the levers of power in their favor?

I was pretty disappointed when I heard the party decided not to endorse Planter. That's a big mistake, IMO.

 

[superrific]

I was pretty disappointed when I heard the party decided not to endorse Planter. That's a big mistake, IMO.

Susan Collins' main advantage in her race -- indeed, the only thing she has going for her -- is incumbency. Familiarity.

If you run a fresh face, there's a risk that a lot of voters will be like, "I don't know about this guy."

If you run the popular governor, then that's not a factor. The idea is that Mills would beat Collins on every facet.

If Mills was 67 this would be a no-brainer. That she's 77 is the problem.

 

[tarheel931]

This is why, next time we get power, we cannot squander the opportunity. That's what I've been saying and will continue to say. We will have a short window to fix everything.

1. First step: neuter the Supreme Court and replace it with a new appellate court. Perfectly constitutional under Article III. Requires nothing more than a statute.

2: Hold a constitutional convention. Tell certain Southern states that they can participate in negotiating it and hopefully we can come to an agreement that all can live with, but if they don't agree, the president will use his unitary executive power to deregister some states so that the we can get 2/3 and 3/4. In the alternative, we can create 50 new states and use them to write the new constitution.

The new amended constitution must address issues like: executive authority (none of this idiotic unitary executive), the judiciary (no life tenure), gun rights (sorry, gun owners), and so on. It doesn't have to be a so-called liberal Christmas tree. It just have to have the provisions necessary for ordered liberty, which was the goal the first time around but that was a very, very long time ago.

3. If we cannot do that, then all will be lost. Is that a Chuck Schumer thing to do? It is not. But we would need the president and hopefully the president will learn how to keep Congress in check long enough to create the conditions for Congress to flourish.

4. As for Janet Mills, I don't really care. We need to run the candidate with the highest chance of winning. That's all that matters -- we need a (D) in that seat. Mills is apparently very popular in Maine. Yes, she's too old, but again -- we need to win and that's all that matters. Same in NC, which is why Roy Cooper is in the race.

Gutting the voting rights act is not necessarily a death knell. Especially if it happens in June, there won't be enough time to redraw districts. So we can take the house in 26. 28 would not be great, but who knows -- the future is hard to predict.

5. The House and the Senate were ready to pass the John Lewis voting rights act, which as I understood it, included provisions to combat gerrymandering. And then Sinema. I wouldn't say that she alone bears responsibility, of course, but she was presented the opportunity to cast a vote for justice and instead she cast a vote for her own relevance. And then she pissed everyone off anyway and so became unelectable. She was like a suicide bomber.

Super, I sincerely appreciate all the contributions you make on this board as well as the wisdom. I don't have a law background, though I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once. It's been a long week (midterms) and I'm worn down from studying. I have absolutely ZERO confidence that the Democratic Party will do anything when/if we regain power.

 

[superrific]

I have absolutely ZERO confidence that the Democratic Party will do anything when/if we regain power.

Why should you? This is exactly why I'm talking about it incessantly now. We need to create an expectation for the Dems to do something, and not just incrementally. If the idea gets enough traction, the Dems will go along. Most Dems are seething mad about what is happening. It's their sense of their voters holding them back. If the voters are out there saying, "we need radical change," then it can get done.

An attitude like, "I have zero confidence the Dems will do anything" is just defeatist. It's entirely understandable and I feel that way sometimes too. But if we aren't willing to stand up and say, "this is what has to be done, and we should do it" then it will never happen for sure.

 

[tarheel931]

Susan Collins' main advantage in her race -- indeed, the only thing she has going for her -- is incumbency. Familiarity.

If you run a fresh face, there's a risk that a lot of voters will be like, "I don't know about this guy."

If you run the popular governor, then that's not a factor. The idea is that Mills would beat Collins on every facet.

If Mills was 67 this would be a no-brainer. That she's 77 is the problem.

I completely understand the argument for running a popular, well known Dem. I also understand that the youth movement won't give a shit about that. They will see that once again, the establishment picks and chooses the candidate. I'm 55 and I'd be pissed if a young, energetic, well-spoken veteran was overlooked for an Octogenarian because she is more popular than he is. This is yet another reason there should be at a minimum, an age limit for ALL elected officials. Hell, Strom Thurmond was friggin 100 when he finally retired. Nancy Pelosi was great once, but she's 85. I believe that Gen Z voters broke for Kamala by about 4% points in 2024 but that number was significantly lower that those that broke for Biden in 2019. It's those young voters that Dems have to reach out to and it seems to me by sidelining a younger more charismatic candidate like Platner for an established senior citizen will turn them off.

 

[Ddseddse]

It feels like we're just rearranging chairs on the deck of the Titanic at this point. For years, the Democratic party has been playing by an archaic set of rules that the MAGATs abandoned a long time ago. I'm so pissed and utterly disappointed in the Dem ability to rise to this moment. Chuck Schumer is the biggest waste of space. I'm pretty sure you guys have heard of Graham Platner. He's the Maine oyster farmer who's entered the race to unseat Olympic Champion Pearl Clutcher Susan Collins. I find him engaging and communicating a message that seems to resonate with the working class. Hell, I'd vote for him. So what's the Dem establishment doing? Friggin Schumer has convinced the current Gov of Maine, Janet Mills to enter the race. She's SEVENTY SEVEN. I'm so sick and tired of Dems running geriatric candidates. It's hard to keep spirits up. WHEN they gut the Voting Rights Act and the MAGA states redistrict accordingly, that will add 20-30 seats for them in the house (a conservative estimate). That pretty much guarantees that the Dems will never regain power. How are we supposed to keep our sprits up when the MAGATs have cemented the levers of power in their favor?

I hear you brother, and share your frustrations and I get despondent too. It would be an insane reaction to not morn the “breaking of things not easily put back together”.

But the “we” I was talking about was not the Demcratic party. It was “we Americans”. This is bigger than party. What should be clear to all of us by now is that no one is coming to save us (Including the Demcratic party). The idea that a knight was going to ride in on a white horse and save us all was always a fantasy. We are going to have to save ourselves.

In a weird way I find this both hopeful and inspirational. Sitting around waiting for someone to rescue us is paralyzing and stressful. Taking ownership is liberating. We get out in the streets this Saturday and we peacefully protest. And when that doesn’t work we do it again bigger and bigger. We hold all the cards. We just need the courage to play them.

Keep the faith.

 

[superrific]

I completely understand the argument for running a popular, well known Dem. I also understand that the youth movement won't give a shit about that. They will see that once again, the establishment picks and chooses the candidate. I'm 55 and I'd be pissed if a young, energetic, well-spoken veteran was overlooked for an Octogenarian because she is more popular than he is. This is yet another reason there should be at a minimum, an age limit for ALL elected officials. Hell, Strom Thurmond was friggin 100 when he finally retired. Nancy Pelosi was great once, but she's 85. I believe that Gen Z voters broke for Kamala by about 4% points in 2024 but that number was significantly lower that those that broke for Biden in 2019. It's those young voters that Dems have to reach out to and it seems to me by sidelining a younger more charismatic candidate like Platner for an established senior citizen will turn them off.

But this is an off-year Senate election in Maine. Let's not run Janet Mills for president.

 

[superrific]

To the point I mentioned earlier, here is a election law expert who attended today's oral argument.

Election Law Blog

The law of politics and the politics of law

electionlawblog.org

"Earlier today, I attended the oral argument in Callais. My global takeaway is a bit more sanguine than Rick’s. When the case was set for re-argument, the new QP flagged Section 2’s constitutionality: whether it constitutes a compelling governmental interest and whether there is a temporal limit to race-based remedial redistricting. However, the conservative Justices seemed more interested in tweaking the Gingles framework than in overturning Section 2 outright. "

"This is not to say the result won’t be bad or that Section 2 as applied to redistricting won’t get the Brnovich rewrite. But as someone who also attended the oral arguments in Northwest Austin, Shelby County, and Rucho, the Callais re-argument was not catastrophic. The tea leaves are harder to read this time. "

I'll stand by my assessment from above. The default position based on priors should be "they will overturn." After today's oral argument, my position now shifts, slightly in favor of "retain" and away from "overturn." That does not mean "retain" is the favorite. "Overturn" is still the favorite, but today was not a bad day. It might not be a good one. I guess we'll find out.