Syria Civil War resumes; Assad Regime Falls

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If/when Homs falls (1.5 million people live there), the last stand will be Damascus, an ancient city with a population of 2.5 million people — just in between the population size of Chicago and Houston, for reference.

[There are about 2 million people living in Aleppo]
 
good look at control over time
www.nytimes.com

The War in Syria Has a New Map. Again.

A surprise advance by Syria’s rebels has redrawn a conflict marked for more than a decade by unusual, shifting alliances.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

any way you cut it, Iran is worried. Their deterrent in Gaza has been obliterated. Their deterrent in Lebanon has been decapitated and is in disarray, having to sign a IDF dictated cease fire. Their economy is in shambles and their youth continues to rage. Now, their man in Damascus, is in serious risk as the Russians leave. The Turks and their brethren seem in charge.
 
Batt Boy said:
good look at control over time
www.nytimes.com

The War in Syria Has a New Map. Again.

A surprise advance by Syria’s rebels has redrawn a conflict marked for more than a decade by unusual, shifting alliances.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

any way you cut it, Iran is worried. Their deterrent in Gaza has been obliterated. Their deterrent in Lebanon has been decapitated and is in disarray, having to sign a IDF dictated cease fire. Their economy is in shambles and their youth continues to rage. Now, their man in Damascus, is in serious risk as the Russians leave. The Turks and their brethren seem in charge.
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Sounds like a great time to undermine the one joint defense arrangement that ties Turkey to the West.
 
I wonder where Assad flees to in exile?

Iran? UAE? Saudi Arabia? Russia? France?

The Assad family likely has billions $$$ squirreled away.
 
Zoo_View said:
I wonder where Assad flees to in exile?

Iran? UAE? Saudi Arabia? Russia? France?

The Assad family likely has billions $$$ squirreled away.
Click to expand...
Russia is out of the question. He and Putin now hate each other.
Vulnerable to kinetic strikes if he goes to Iraq.
Gulf States he can be killed easily as well.
While Iran seems most likely, my bet is that he holes up near Latakia or Tartus. Very mountainous and had years to prepare. They know when the rebels chant, "Christians to Beirut, Alawi to the grave" they mean it.
 
RaiGuy said:
I'm worried about my family (elderly aunts and uncles) in Damascus. It's going to get a lot uglier before it can get better.
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I think it will get catastrophic. Most likely, Assad's own folks will take him out in an attempt to avert a complete takeover and it will not work.
 
Batt Boy said:
good look at control over time
www.nytimes.com

The War in Syria Has a New Map. Again.

A surprise advance by Syria’s rebels has redrawn a conflict marked for more than a decade by unusual, shifting alliances.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

any way you cut it, Iran is worried. Their deterrent in Gaza has been obliterated. Their deterrent in Lebanon has been decapitated and is in disarray, having to sign a IDF dictated cease fire. Their economy is in shambles and their youth continues to rage. Now, their man in Damascus, is in serious risk as the Russians leave. The Turks and their brethren seem in charge.
Click to expand...
Why was Assad ever their man in Damascus? Closest thing to Shi'a in the area?
 
RaiGuy said:
I'm worried about my family (elderly aunts and uncles) in Damascus. It's going to get a lot uglier before it can get better.
Click to expand...
Yes, this could get really bad. I’m hoping not, but a siege of Damascus would be ugly.
 
In the modern age, even in a devastated place like Syria, how does a rebellion build up this degree of blitzkrieg capacity in a totalitarian state backed by Russia and ran by a paranoid sociopath?
 
HeelingAg said:
In the modern age, even in a devastated place like Syria, how does a rebellion build up this degree of blitzkrieg capacity in a totalitarian state backed by Russia and ran by a paranoid sociopath?
Click to expand...
A complicit populace. Once they had little to lose, they explored other options.
 
finesse said:
A complicit populace. Once they had little to lose, they explored other options.
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Sure, widespread hatred of the oppressors is certainly an asset. I’m talking more along the lines of drones, security footage, spies, mic’d up everywheres, ie surveillance state. Now, I recognize Syria’s infrastructure has been decimated, but with the level of funds Assad hordes, and his foreign backers, I’m surprised he wasnt clued in on the amassing of dozens upon dozens of vehicles, thousands of people, thousands of guns and rockets, millions of bullets, etc.

I mean, this appears to have taken Assad and Putin by complete surprise.
 
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