Syria & Middle East News Catch-all | Lebanon Finally Elects a PM

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Zoo_View said:
I wonder where Assad flees to in exile?

Iran? UAE? Saudi Arabia? Russia? France?

The Assad family likely has billions $$$ squirreled away.
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Russia is out of the question. He and Putin now hate each other.
Vulnerable to kinetic strikes if he goes to Iraq.
Gulf States he can be killed easily as well.
While Iran seems most likely, my bet is that he holes up near Latakia or Tartus. Very mountainous and had years to prepare. They know when the rebels chant, "Christians to Beirut, Alawi to the grave" they mean it.
 
RaiGuy said:
I'm worried about my family (elderly aunts and uncles) in Damascus. It's going to get a lot uglier before it can get better.
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I think it will get catastrophic. Most likely, Assad's own folks will take him out in an attempt to avert a complete takeover and it will not work.
 
Batt Boy said:
good look at control over time
www.nytimes.com

See How the War in Syria Has Changed

A surprise advance by Syria’s rebels has redrawn a conflict marked for more than a decade by unusual, shifting alliances.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

any way you cut it, Iran is worried. Their deterrent in Gaza has been obliterated. Their deterrent in Lebanon has been decapitated and is in disarray, having to sign a IDF dictated cease fire. Their economy is in shambles and their youth continues to rage. Now, their man in Damascus, is in serious risk as the Russians leave. The Turks and their brethren seem in charge.
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Why was Assad ever their man in Damascus? Closest thing to Shi'a in the area?
 
RaiGuy said:
I'm worried about my family (elderly aunts and uncles) in Damascus. It's going to get a lot uglier before it can get better.
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Yes, this could get really bad. I’m hoping not, but a siege of Damascus would be ugly.
 
In the modern age, even in a devastated place like Syria, how does a rebellion build up this degree of blitzkrieg capacity in a totalitarian state backed by Russia and ran by a paranoid sociopath?
 
HeelingAg said:
In the modern age, even in a devastated place like Syria, how does a rebellion build up this degree of blitzkrieg capacity in a totalitarian state backed by Russia and ran by a paranoid sociopath?
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A complicit populace. Once they had little to lose, they explored other options.
 
finesse said:
A complicit populace. Once they had little to lose, they explored other options.
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Sure, widespread hatred of the oppressors is certainly an asset. I’m talking more along the lines of drones, security footage, spies, mic’d up everywheres, ie surveillance state. Now, I recognize Syria’s infrastructure has been decimated, but with the level of funds Assad hordes, and his foreign backers, I’m surprised he wasnt clued in on the amassing of dozens upon dozens of vehicles, thousands of people, thousands of guns and rockets, millions of bullets, etc.

I mean, this appears to have taken Assad and Putin by complete surprise.
 
A lot of people have had trouble telling dictators the cold hard truth about things throughout history. It tends to be detrimental to their wellbeing. When there's already a corrupt manipulation of goods going on by way of pay offs, bribes and black markets, it's not that hard to divert part of them.
 
HeelingAg said:
In the modern age, even in a devastated place like Syria, how does a rebellion build up this degree of blitzkrieg capacity in a totalitarian state backed by Russia and ran by a paranoid sociopath?
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Weird way for the president-elect to frame this — seems mostly concerned about Russia’s interests.

IMG_3976.jpeg
 
HeelingAg said:
Sure, widespread hatred of the oppressors is certainly an asset. I’m talking more along the lines of drones, security footage, spies, mic’d up everywheres, ie surveillance state. Now, I recognize Syria’s infrastructure has been decimated, but with the level of funds Assad hordes, and his foreign backers, I’m surprised he wasnt clued in on the amassing of dozens upon dozens of vehicles, thousands of people, thousands of guns and rockets, millions of bullets, etc.

I mean, this appears to have taken Assad and Putin by complete surprise.
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Russia and Putin are slightly distracted by Ukraine (and Georgia and trying to steal an election in Romania). Putin’s vaunted military has had to bring in the JV team from North Korea.

Assad? He’s a sheltered dictator of a country that’s needed Iranian, Russian, and Hezbollah support for close to 15 years to survive. Israel just decimated Hezbollah and has been attacking Iranian forces. Russia is weakened and distracted.

Time is running out for Assad.
 
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