The second Trump recession

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No. The American economy is very strong. It’s without question the strongest in the world. The sign from the Fed that they are unlikely to cut rates like was previously thought is a great sign that they remain serious about inflation. I think the market has only one cut baked in for this year.
 
dcphx said:
Guess my decision to reduce my equity position yesterday was timely.
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I got dumb lucky with Walmart. Reduced my position yesterday enough to ensure a very healthy profit, over my previously long position. Did the same with a short term position in nvidia. I didn’t do it with any keen insight into their value, more a personal intolerance for the political volatility of the moment, and the near inevitability of volatility in the coming years.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
No. The American economy is very strong. It’s without question the strongest in the world. The sign from the Fed that they are unlikely to cut rates like was previously thought is a great sign that they remain serious about inflation. I think the market has only one cut baked in for this year.
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The first trump recession (exacerbated by Pandemic, we get that) was thwarted by Bidenomics. If the economy is very strong right now, just one month into the new trump term, then all credit has to go to the way the Biden admin and the fed handled things coming out of the recession. Inflation notwithstanding as that was world wide and again, brought on by Pandemic and supply chain shortages. That said, Trump has done nothing in his 4 short weeks but try like hell to bring the economy to it's knees.

Recall Musk saying that the US economy needs to tank - and to tank within 2 years or so - before it can rise out of the ashes like a Pheonix with all of the new oligarchical, authoritarian bits and pieces in place. The reality may turn out to be "bits and pieces" alright.

"Say Cousin Eddie... what kind of RV is that anyway?"
 
dcphx said:
Guess my decision to reduce my equity position yesterday was timely.
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Why? There’s no data that says being in cash is the play right now. Warren Buffett is making a big bet cash is best though so that’s very interesting. He is saying it’s because of ability of new team to have access to capital, etc. who knows.
 
Stock market took a big ol' :poop: today. We'll see if it was the start of a broader downturn or just a blip. Investors are wary for good reason.
 
Similar thread started earlier today. Will merge them if appropriate when I am not a couple of martinis in.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
Why? There’s no data that says being in cash is the play right now. Warren Buffett is making a big bet cash is best though so that’s very interesting. He is saying it’s because of ability of new team to have access to capital, etc. who knows.
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I've been considering a a reconfiguration for a while given the fact that I am approaching retirement perhaps as soon as the end of the year; the market has been up huge for 2 straight years and is likely due for a correction; and Trump policies create a lot of uncertainty for near term market performance so I am comfortable enough to move from a very heavy equity to a lighter or moderate equity position to see how the next year or two plays out. Maybe I will lose out on a bit of return but that won't be a problem.
 
I don’t think we are in much danger of a recession. The one caveat to that is obviously tariffs. Otherwise Biden handed Trump a pretty strong economy with full employment, wage growth that had outstripped inflation for the past two years and record stock market growth. Company earnings are healthy. If anything it may be still running a bit too hot, but I don’t think 3% inflation is that big a concern. I still think the Fed is right to pause. Hopefully Trump doesn’t fuck it up too badly.
 
Enigma94 said:
I don’t think we are in much danger of a recession. The one caveat to that is obviously tariffs. Otherwise Biden handed Trump a pretty strong economy with full employment, wage growth that had outstripped inflation for the past two years and record stock market growth. Company earnings are healthy. If anything it may be still running a bit too hot, but I don’t think 3% inflation is that big a concern. I still think the Fed is right to pause. Hopefully Trump doesn’t fuck it up too badly.
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Inflation is about 5.5%, 6% per the current run rate. Year over year figures are not very helpful, because most of that yoy figure is from Biden's presidency. Before the insanity.

And there already have been tariffs. Not the catastrophic ones, but 10% on everything from China ain't nothing.
 
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