Be that as it may, I'm pretty sure that Garland did not sit back and think " I really want to do my duty and prosecute Trump for his attempt to overthrow the government, but 3 years from now SCOTUS will grant Trump full immunity so why bother ? "
Moreover, if he had initiated the investigation earlier, the case would have reached SCOTUS earlier and there would have been time for the court to sort out what elements of the case would reside outside the parameters of Trump's immunity.
1. Actually, Garland would think about that. I don't know if he thought that exactly, but he was a circuit court judge for two decades. He absolutely worries about precedents that can get set if the right appeals are teed up. When I was clerking, that consideration absolutely did factor into the decision in one case. From judges, it's more of a tiebreaker than a strong consideration. From the AG, I don't know.
Did Garland envision specifically an immunity decision? I don't know. I certainly didn't expect it, but we also have to recognize that Garland knows the US Supreme Court as well as anyone. He certainly knew it far better than I did. For instance, he served alongside Kav for a decade and a half, and alongside Roberts for a couple of years.
2. Here's what would have happened if the case had reached the Supreme Court earlier. First, if it had been accelerated by about six months or less, it would have made no difference: SCOTUS sat on the thing until the end of its term and it would have done that regardless. But we've been through that.
In terms of the immunity decision, you might note that SCOTUS was exceedingly vague about what counts as an official act. So vague as to offer basically no guidance at all. Why? Perhaps part of it was the fact that the opinion was all bullshit anyway, but part of it was likely the fact that the Justices didn't know exactly what Garland had. They left it vague and then sent the issue to the lower court -- preserving the flexibility to draw lines *just* a little further than the evidence showed. What Trump did would be deemed official, and then everything less official could be shuffled to the side. This point doesn't have to be true for the remainder of my post to be true, but I think it is true and also it adds icing on the cake.
So what we had on tap was this:
1. Immunity decision. Chutkan has to make factual determinations as to official acts.
2. Review by DC Circuit
3. Back up to SCOTUS, who would likely pare away at some of those determinations at the very least.
4. Back to Chutkan or at least to DC Circuit.
5. Whenever we get back to Chutkan after immunity decision, next up: Jack Smith was unlawfully appointed. Chutkan would deny but Trump would ask for an emergency appeal and SCOTUS would grant it. Given that immunity won, that argument might have won (it definitely shouldn't), but in any event, it would take time.
6. Trial.
Garland's dithering for a year meant that we only got to step 1. But if he had started on the first day he was confirmed, maybe we get to step 3? Maybe step 5? We weren't getting anywhere close to trial.