Trump / Musk (other than DOGE) Omnibus Thread

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Over 5.25T in additional spending in 2021/22 alone (coming on the heels of COVID spending in 2020) AND he wanted trillions more - only Sinema and Manchin stopped him

1.9T - American Rescue Plan - unnecessary as Congress passed almost 1T in COVID relief in December 2020. By April 2021, most of America was on their way to getting vaxxed and returning to work.

1.2T - infrastructure bill -

1.75T Build Back Better

1.6T Inflation Reduction Act - actually a green new deal act.

So you're stating I'm "stupid" for believing that this amount of unnecessary stimulus didn't contribute to inflation? "Completely false?" Larry Summers agrees with me. Yes, there were other contributing factors such as supply chain issues but the additional spending was the main cause of the inflation.
 
CRHeel94 said:
Weren't there all sorts of legal vacuums and issues with terrorist detainees sent to Gitmo?

I'm not sure they thought this through. The cost of holding thousands of detainees there alone will be an issue.
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Guantanamo is an absolute nightmare for criminal due process. Especially if torture is involved. That said, due process may not mean much going forward.
 
Ramrouser said:
As I posted earlier, Wells and other industry experts predict mortgage rates will fall to 6.1-6.3% by the end of the year. You should be mad at Biden as his inflationary spending caused rates to rise in the first place.
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Son, you know less about economics than about law. Nobody cares about your Biden mewling. We now know what caused the inflation, and it was supply chain disruption.
 
Ramrouser said:
Over 5.25T in additional spending in 2021/22 alone (coming on the heels of COVID spending in 2020) AND he wanted trillions more - only Sinema and Manchin stopped him

1.9T - American Rescue Plan - unnecessary as Congress passed almost 1T in COVID relief in December 2020. By April 2021, most of America was on their way to getting vaxxed and returning to work.

1.2T - infrastructure bill -

1.75T Build Back Better

1.6T Inflation Reduction Act - actually a green new deal act.

So you're stating I'm "stupid" for believing that this amount of unnecessary stimulus didn't contribute to inflation? "Completely false?" Larry Summers agrees with me. Yes, there were other contributing factors such as supply chain issues but the additional spending was the main cause of the inflation.
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Of course stimulus contributed to inflation, but you said Biden's spending was the cause of post pandemic inflation, which is bullshit. And how come Trump's roughly $5T in stimulus in the form of spending and tax cuts gets a total pass from you in this analysis? Regardless, supply chain disruptions combined with a shift in demand from services to goods was the primary cause of inflation. Also do you care to address the fact that the US fared better than most of its peers as it relates to pandemic induced inflation? If Biden's stimulus was the sole cause of inflation then how come it came down faster in the US than most other countries' inflation rates?
 
superrific said:
Son, you know less about economics than about law. Nobody cares about your Biden mewling. We now know what caused the inflation, and it was supply chain disruption.
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That's a bit of an oversimplification, but certainly immensely more correct than Ram's idiotic blame gaming.


Section 3 also performs a decomposition of the 6.9 percentage point rise in headline inflation between end-2020 and September 2022 (from 1.3 percent to 8.2 percent). It concludes that the combination of direct and pass-through effects from headline-inflation shocks accounts for about 4.6 percentage points of the rise in 12-month inflation. A rise in expected inflation accounts for 0.5 percentage point, and the rise in labor market tightness (measured by the ratio of vacancies to unemployment) accounts for 2.0 percentage points.

* * *

In the simple regressions, the variables with the most explanatory power are, in order of importance (with adjusted R-squared statistics in parentheses): energy-price shocks, measured as energy price inflation minus median inflation (0.646); the IHS Markit Economics index of firms’ backlogs of goods and services orders, which we interpret as a measure of supply chain disruptions (0.429); the share of goods in aggregate consumption, which captures the shift away from services during lockdowns (0.253); and auto-price shocks, measured as a weighted average of auto-related inflation rates (new and used cars, car rentals, and car insurance) minus median inflation (0.191).

In multiple regressions, we find high explanatory power from a combination of three variables: energy-price shocks, backlogs of work, and auto-price shocks. A regression of headline shocks on these variables has an adjusted R-squared of 0.912. When all three are included, the goods share is not significant.
 
Ramrouser said:
You count one day "paper losses" in your investment account or retirement account as an actual loss? Are you liquidating your accounts today? The market will bounce back.
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If the market will just "bounce back" no matter what, does that mean nothing ever matters? Kind of a strange position.

1. Let me explain a bit of finance to you. Securities are priced by the following formula: Return = Risk-Free-Return + B * market premium. The market premium can be security-specific, sector specific, market specific, or based on a number of other factors. Let's look at the first term.

The "risk-free return" isn't exactly free of risk, but it's systemic risk. We call it "risk-free" because if the bad outcome comes true, we will have a lot more problems than a dip in our portfolio values.

What Trump has done is increase the risk-free rate of return. That is, because of his policies, people require more yield to choose investment over consumption. That's the upshot of the trade war bullshit. The world's economy is less sound than it was a week ago, because there are malevolent actors in key positions trying to undermine it. And we are paying for that with higher interest rates. His fiscal profligacy has also caused interest rates to rise, though that's something of a US specific risk (which can be globalized).

2. Economists have demonstrated that we pay approximately 0.10-0.25% more interest on US debt as a result of the Pubs' debt ceiling brinksmanship during the Obama years. Every time the Pubs threaten a default, the US ends up paying more in interest. And that means every American with debt (mortgage, credit card, business, etc) is paying more in interest.

www.brookings.edu

Debt ceiling brinksmanship has clear negative effects on taxpayers

Debt limit brinksmanship is already impacting Treasury securities. The increase in interest rates represents a cost to taxpayers and a lack of confidence among investors.
www.brookings.edu www.brookings.edu

And now we're getting the same thing with Trump's policies. He has added permanent instability to the world economy, and my guess is that the "risk-free" rate will have increased by almost 10 basis points. That's about $300B per year in additional interest rates paid by the federal government.

3. All of the DOGE savings actually identified have been on the order of $3B a year. So it's been two weeks and Trump has already cost the US hundreds of billions of dollars. WINNING! Of course, to understand this requires some education. And then you wonder why educated people everywhere loathe MAGA and the other organized ignorance movements like Brexit etc.
 
lawtig02 said:
That's a bit of an oversimplification, but certainly immensely more correct than Ram's idiotic blame gaming.
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Of course it is an oversimplification. More than a bit. The guy I'm responding is a lawyer who doesn't understand concepts like jurisdiction. He's going to have zero chance with R-squared.

The additional fiscal spending in 2021 added very little to inflation. Probably on the order of GOP debt ceiling brinksmanship. At least from the fiscal spending, people were able to eat and pay their rent/mortgage. The GOP raises interest rates just to do it. Gives them woodies I guess.
 
Ramrouser said:
You count one day "paper losses" in your investment account or retirement account as an actual loss? Are you liquidating your accounts today? The market will bounce back.
As I posted earlier, Wells and other industry experts predict mortgage rates will fall to 6.1-6.3% by the end of the year. You should be mad at Biden as his inflationary spending caused rates to rise in the first place.
No politician is going to "cut" social security payments - that's political suicide. Might as well worry about an asteroid hitting your house.
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1. Paper loss was just illustrative of what a point .76 drop can do to people’s retirement accounts.
2. Blaming Biden for COVID, brilliant.
3. Mortgage rates should have fallen below 6% already but Trump screwed that up.
4. The republicans are the ones talking quite about about cutting social security and not one republican voter has held them accountable for it yet. We shall see. We do know Trump included cuts in every single budget proposal he has ever submitted. I know, it’s dumb to believe anything he says.
 
Enigma94 said:
This is completely false. How can you believe stupid shit like this? I'd explain it to you, but you seem to have the cognition of a 3rd grader.
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He knows the truth, but it doesn't fit the cult narrative.
 
ChileG said:
1. Paper loss was just illustrative of what a point .76 drop can do to people’s retirement accounts.
2. Blaming Biden for COVID, brilliant.
3. Mortgage rates should have fallen below 6% already but Trump screwed that up.
4. The republicans are the ones talking quite about about cutting social security and not one republican voter has held them accountable for it yet. We shall see. We do know Trump included cuts in every single budget proposal he has ever submitted. I know, it’s dumb to believe anything he says.
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Trump's budget proposal for each year in his first term included cuts to SS. why can't they simply look at his history and understand that he doesn't give a fuck about SS?
 
Ramrouser said:
Over 5.25T in additional spending in 2021/22 alone (coming on the heels of COVID spending in 2020) AND he wanted trillions more - only Sinema and Manchin stopped him

1.9T - American Rescue Plan - unnecessary as Congress passed almost 1T in COVID relief in December 2020. By April 2021, most of America was on their way to getting vaxxed and returning to work.

1.2T - infrastructure bill -

1.75T Build Back Better

1.6T Inflation Reduction Act - actually a green new deal act.

So you're stating I'm "stupid" for believing that this amount of unnecessary stimulus didn't contribute to inflation? "Completely false?" Larry Summers agrees with me. Yes, there were other contributing factors such as supply chain issues but the additional spending was the main cause of the inflation.
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The key word in your statement is "contribute" you completely blamed Bielden earlier. It's a different debate to say he caused vs he contributed.

MTG didn't have a problem accepting almost $200k from those stimulus, just like other hypocritical GOP representatives.
 
superrific said:
Of course it is an oversimplification. More than a bit. The guy I'm responding is a lawyer who doesn't understand concepts like jurisdiction. He's going to have zero chance with R-squared.

The additional fiscal spending in 2021 added very little to inflation. Probably on the order of GOP debt ceiling brinksmanship. At least from the fiscal spending, people were able to eat and pay their rent/mortgage. The GOP raises interest rates just to do it. Gives them woodies I guess.
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Agree. I have just found that research paper to be very helpful, and while someone like Ram will never bother to read it, I like spreading the word that it exists whenever I can.
 
lawtig02 said:
Agree. I have just found that research paper to be very helpful, and while someone like Ram will never bother to read it, I like spreading the word that it exists whenever I can.
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That is a good reason to post it and summarize it. I know that the audience for message board posts is broader than the persons directly addressed, and I'm glad you brought it to my attention. I hadn't see that paper specifically, though the results are in line with other analyses.
 
You know what the market likes? Stability.

You know what Donald Trump creates? Chaos and instability.

Trump’s very existence on our political stage roils the equity markets and increases interest rates. The markets hate uncertainty, and Donald Trump creates uncertainty for the same reason gtyellowjacket derails message board threads….because he can.
 
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