U.S. Budget & OBBB | OCT 1 - Gov’t Shutdown Begins

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Calheel said:
For those of you upset with the compromise, it is worth pointing out that the compromise just funds the government to January. If the Republicans stiff the Democrats on ACA subsidies, the Democrats have the option to shut down the government again.
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There is zero chance the Dems will shut down the government again. Why? They have successfully proven they don't have the stomach for the fight. The capitulation only emboldens the belief that Trump is a strongman and the Dems are weak. For the last 40 days we've been told this fight is about affordable health care (which the latest polls show that 78% of people want the same thing) and you give in for the mere promise of a vote? Seriously? Johnson has already said the house will never hold a vote on this. So what exactly was the whole point of this futile exercise? I am tired of the toddlers running the house. They constantly keep lighting matches only to have us put the flames out and politely tell them not to do it again. I'm past the point of saying, Fuck it, let 'em burn the damn thing down.
 
BlueSmoke said:
Does the House even have to come back and vote on this? If they do, then I'm surprised Trump allowed the Senate to do this.
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Yes they absolutely do — and Dems in the House can stand back at first to force the House GOP to approve it (though I am pretty certain it will have to have Dem votes to get approved by the House).

And this shifts a lot of pressure back to the GOP now.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Agreed. If they were going to cave without an agreement to extend Obamacare subsidies then they never should have made this fight, imo. They're not going to get any credit for doing so and will simply get all the blame for the hardships and if the subsidies are cut then people will blame them instead of Republicans. Congressional Democrats are just so unprepared for this moment. I mean, you hold out this long for the subsidies and then fold and approve a budget without a guarantee that the subsidies will stay?
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The minority party has never gotten what they demand in a shutdown. We knew that going in. The Dems changed the political focus though. The GOP was trying to get away with quietly gutting healthcare support (claiming they are fixing Medicaid by defunding a lot of it, discontinuing ACA subsidies, etc). Now they own it and Trump has been baited into claiming that they are going to deliver something better.

Trump and the GOP also revealed to a lot more Americans who frankly aren’t paying much attention to politics beyond the lead headline on the nightly news AT MOST (which is most Americans) that they would take hostage not just poor but working and middle class Americans to advance Trump’s agenda. SNAP and healthcare and airline shutdowns ahead of Thanksgiving got media attention beyond the political class and minority of Americans intensely following this stuff.

When the Dems started this, some sort of tactical retreat was inevitable. They got some important if more mundane concessions and will have better leverage if it comes to it in January (after the holidays) because the deal cut in the Senate (if it passes the House) funds/protects some of the pressure points used by Trump this time. Susan Collins wanted this to expire in December because she knew that Dems will feel a lot more pressure to vote for the inevitable next CR before Christmas than after.

It was no accident the original House CR was scheduled to expire just before Thanksgiving (Nov 21) — clearly the House GOP had zero intention of getting anything done by that deadline, they haven’t been in session since passing that CR (political malpractice IMO — they should have at least been feigning working on the FY26 budget in the background). But they knew the pressure to give in to the next CR would be nearly unbearable just ahead of a holiday.

Politics is a distasteful game. And it is rarely a straight line of hold your breath until you get everything you want. Negotiations and compromise (and therefore, democracy itself) are inherently messy, risking political chips for small strategic victories never makes the public happy. Most people are disgusted by watching their sausage get made.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
"Democrats are cracking like dogs" = "I'm worried that polls show most people are blaming us for the shutdown and we didn't think Democrats would hold out this long and I'm getting scared and frustrated that things aren't going to plan."
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"Democrats are cracking like dogs and now I can brag that I finally made the Democrats cave and end their terrible government shutdown...WINNING !"
 
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If Democrats had actually won on this, then they would have lost by saving the Republicans/Trump from themselves. The people who are going to get hurt by these cuts would not have remembered to thank the Dems. Now, if they actually suffer they might just notice WHO did it to them.
 
Calheel said:
For those of you upset with the compromise, it is worth pointing out that the compromise just funds the government to January. If the Republicans stiff the Democrats on ACA subsidies, the Democrats have the option to shut down the government again.
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I would be way more upset right now if this was a longer term resolution.
 
i still fail to see where a huge increase in healthcare costs would be anything other than a good thing for the blue sheep party in the long run
 
Calheel said:
It is Congress. If it wanted, it could require insurance companies to enroll people retroactively. So the open enrollment period is not the end all, be all of the analysis.

That said, I don't think Republicans were ever going to vote to reinstate the subsidies. This was always a play to get the issue highlighted.

Would you just keep the government closed forever?
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This government, in this hands of these people?

Absolutely you shut that shit down, unless you get the concessions you wanted in the final bill.
 
BlueSmoke said:
If Democrats had actually won on this, then they would have lost by saving the Republicans/Trump from themselves. The people who are going to get hurt by these cuts would not have remembered to thank the Dems. Now, if they actually suffer they might just notice WHO did it to them.
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This. I hope.
 
BlueSmoke said:
If Democrats had actually won on this, then they would have lost by saving the Republicans/Trump from themselves. The people who are going to get hurt by these cuts would not have remembered to thank the Dems. Now, if they actually suffer they might just notice WHO did it to them.
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Yeah...umm no

Come next year Trump will be remind voters that he made the Dems end their horrible shutdown that caused you so much pain before doing so.
The Donald is a pretty good salesman and he will effectively shape the minds of voters to believe it really was a Democrat shutdown after all. The campaign ads will write themselves next year.

" How to Kill the Enthusiasm of Your Base in Just 50 Days" By Chuck Schumer .

That book would be a best seller and published in time for the holiday season..
 
heelinhell said:
Yeah...umm no

Come next year Trump will be remind voters that he made the Dems end their horrible shutdown that caused you so much pain before doing so.
The Donald is a pretty good salesman and he will effectively shape the minds of voters to believe it really was a Democrat shutdown after all. The campaign ads will write themselves next year.

" How to Kill the Enthusiasm of Your Base in Just 50 Days" By Chuck Schumer .

That book would be a best seller and published in time for the holiday season..
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Not to mention I’ve been reading around on some different sites and some Democrats are seeing this as a real betrayal. Dems held the line long enough until they got the votes and turnout for the election and then they caved. Used us.
 
heelinhell said:
Yeah...umm no

Come next year Trump will be remind voters that he made the Dems end their horrible shutdown that caused you so much pain before doing so.
The Donald is a pretty good salesman and he will effectively shape the minds of voters to believe it really was a Democrat shutdown after all. The campaign ads will write themselves next year.

" How to Kill the Enthusiasm of Your Base in Just 50 Days" By Chuck Schumer .

That book would be a best seller and published in time for the holiday season..
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Trump is ass when he's not on the ballot

He doesn't sell shit if it's not himself
 
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