U.S. Budget & OBBB | OCT 1 - Gov’t Shutdown Begins

[aGDevil2k]

Personally I didn't think there was that much chance of a policy concession - but I did think there was a chance of Trump strong-arming the Senate into weakening the filibuster, which would be a great thing for everyone. Unfortunately I suspect there are still a couple of Dems in the group that just broke ranks on the vote (Fetterman, King (not technically a Dem) Durbin (who is at least leaving) who still have a hard-on for the filibuster, either for personal or political reasons.

Well until we start to win back some "red state" senate seats, then the filibuster is a friend to the democrats for now

 

[gregh1]

It sounds better to cave over SNAP, than to gave over "SNAP and airport chaos". There aren't that many people flying relative to the number of people who are going to have skyrockets healthcare. So you throw in the "Airport chaos" part and it just weakens the entire stance.

 

[superrific]

It is much easier to have the stomach for a fight when it's not growling.

Liberals are liberals precisely because they consider it a priority to lessen human suffering.

Judge the Dems however you want, but first reflect on why you are a Dem.

 

[CFordUNC]

I just want to point out that no one should be mad at the "Democratic Party" they should be mad at the specific people who broke ranks, and maybe throw Schumer in there for not being able to hold the caucus together. But there are also people who think this was the right political decision, so I'll moderate my anger at some of those people for now (the one I definitely won't let off the hook is Fetterman, who is absolutely useless to Dems and who I sincerely hope will be primaried into oblivion at the next opportunity).

Totally agree with you

 

[UNCBAdookJD]

It is much easier to have the stomach for a fight when it's not growling.

Liberals are liberals precisely because they consider it a priority to lessen human suffering.

Judge the Dems however you want, but first reflect on why you are a Dem.

Exactly. I’ve had to have some very hard conversations with my kids the last 40 days. While we had some savings and could have probably survived a few more months without pay, especially since we have cut our household budget to the bone to make everything last longer, I have young subordinates already on the brink of eviction. It’s easy to tell other people to hold out forever, but when the opponent relishes all of the harm being caused you aren’t going to get them to budge. You can’t appeal to the humanity of the inhumane. Their largest donor has railed on how bad empathy is.

 

[Molotov Mocktail]

Rename this thread spin and cope. It’s on the same level as Fox News last Wednesday.

 

[Calheel]

I think they could have kept the government closed until Trump forced Pubs to remove/modify the filibuster so that the Senate could re-open the government by majority vote, which I think was the best political result for Dems and the country.

If removing the filibuster is the goal, democrats can do that when they are in power. It is unlikely it would have been a complete filibuster removal anyway.

 

[Calheel]

This government, in this hands of these people?

Absolutely you shut that shit down, unless you get the concessions you wanted in the final bill.

Until? Forever?

 

[Zoo_View]

The minority party has never gotten what they demand in a shutdown. We knew that going in. The Dems changed the political focus though. The GOP was trying to get away with quietly gutting healthcare support (claiming they are fixing Medicaid by defunding a lot of it, discontinuing ACA subsidies, etc). Now they own it and Trump has been baited into claiming that they are going to deliver something better.

Trump and the GOP also revealed to a lot more Americans who frankly aren’t paying much attention to politics beyond the lead headline on the nightly news AT MOST (which is most Americans) that they would take hostage not just poor but working and middle class Americans to advance Trump’s agenda. SNAP and healthcare and airline shutdowns ahead of Thanksgiving got media attention beyond the political class and minority of Americans intensely following this stuff.

When the Dems started this, some sort of tactical retreat was inevitable. They got some important if more mundane concessions and will have better leverage if it comes to it in January (after the holidays) because the deal cut in the Senate (if it passes the House) funds/protects some of the pressure points used by Trump this time. Susan Collins wanted this to expire in December because she knew that Dems will feel a lot more pressure to vote for the inevitable next CR before Christmas than after.

It was no accident the original House CR was scheduled to expire just before Thanksgiving (Nov 21) — clearly the House GOP had zero intention of getting anything done by that deadline, they haven’t been in session since passing that CR (political malpractice IMO — they should have at least been feigning working on the FY26 budget in the background). But they knew the pressure to give in to the next CR would be nearly unbearable just ahead of a holiday.

Politics is a distasteful game. And it is rarely a straight line of hold your breath until you get everything you want. Negotiations and compromise (and therefore, democracy itself) are inherently messy, risking political chips for small strategic victories never makes the public happy. Most people are disgusted by watching their sausage get made.

A problem with this…….

The GOP is adhering to one of the tenets that Gingrich often touted - DO NOT COMPROMISE!

 

[UNCBAdookJD]

Until? Forever?

Exactly. I don’t see anyone stepping up to pay my mortgage or SNAP recipients’ groceries during the shutdown. Easy to say shut it down forever when you aren’t the one making the sacrifices.

 

[4thgenheel]

Ready for my most controversial takes yet? The Dems won the shutdown fight!

- This "fold" won't matter at all in next years midterms but making the GOP own the dogshit BBB/tariff/health care policies will
- This is not an example of Dems "not fighting like Republicans" it's a longer shutdown than anything the kamikaze Tea Party ever did!
- The people who are mad about this are a small subset of the electorate that treat politics like sports and its possible that their crying about the fold will contribute to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
- There was no path to getting the Obamacare subsidies back because the GOP controls everything and was never going to do it and they are fake populists. Dems should run against them on that topic and they have a great case study now. MTG helps with that.
- The fact that there was no getting Obamacare subsidy extension endgame was obvious at the start and anyone setting that expectation was lying to people.

 

[Molotov Mocktail]

Exactly. I don’t see anyone stepping up to pay my mortgage or SNAP recipients’ groceries during the shutdown. Easy to say shut it down forever when you aren’t the one making the sacrifices.

There’s a thread here encouraging people to help at and/or donate at food banks. I continue to volunteer at a free health clinic as I’ve done for the past 15 years. Donated food and clothing and contacted friends to do the same.

Maybe it is easier to be angry because I’m not paid directly by the government. I am however in a field that’s had research funding slowed to a trickle. I’m unsure of my future because of maga and P2025. I now see there’s still very little chance dems can fight back against this wrecking ball. The high from last week has been wiped away.

Fetterman, a couple retiring senators, an ancient Independent, and some senators half way through their terms know better than the 40 dems still holding out?? Nah.

This isn’t a win by losing. Fox claimed dems lost by winning last week. Nonsense spin. This is a disaster. Leverage is gone. Trump is back off the ropes. Threat of another shutdown will be laughed at. No one is going to talk about anything other than dems caving next year because trump will have done 52,000 horrible things in that time and we all moved on from what he did these past few weeks. We know trump is a monster and dems are feckless cowards unable to meet this moment in history.

 

[heelinhell]

Until? Forever?

Before ? Never ?

Why not just accept the very same deal that the GOPers offered 50 days ago ? Why put folks through the pain and stress when you knew that the GOPers would just wait until you caved like you always do ?

You put millions through pain and stress for over 50 days and got nothing for it for the American people... so sad

 

[Calheel]

Before ? Never ?

Why not just accept the very same deal that the GOPers offered 50 days ago ? Why put folks through the pain and stress when you knew that the GOPers would just wait until you caved like you always do ?

You put millions through pain and stress for over 50 days and got nothing for it for the American people... so sad

Again. If you think the objective was to actually get subsidies, that option is still on table. The Republicans promised a vote in December. If that vote fails, you have the option to shut the government down on January 31.

This is a bit like the immigration bill in 2024, but in reverse. Democrats are arguably advantaged politically not to pass subsidies.

The end game of a shut down would have been a partial modification of the filibuster rule. Was that really worth people losing SNAP benefits and every other downside?

 

[UNCMSinLS]

Ready for my most controversial takes yet? The Dems won the shutdown fight!

- This "fold" won't matter at all in next years midterms but making the GOP own the dogshit BBB/tariff/health care policies will
- This is not an example of Dems "not fighting like Republicans" it's a longer shutdown than anything the kamikaze Tea Party ever did!
- The people who are mad about this are a small subset of the electorate that treat politics like sports and its possible that their crying about the fold will contribute to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
- There was no path to getting the Obamacare subsidies back because the GOP controls everything and was never going to do it and they are fake populists. Dems should run against them on that topic and they have a great case study now. MTG helps with that.
- The fact that there was no getting Obamacare subsidy extension endgame was obvious at the start and anyone setting that expectation was lying to people.

I really like Tim Miller but I think he got this one dead wrong. This cave will be perceived as permission from democrats wrapped in a bow for Trump to do any damn thing he pleases. Plus, it feeds the narrative that dems were indeed responsible for the shutdown - "See, dems ended the shutdown that THEY started!"

 

[heelinhell]

Exactly. I don’t see anyone stepping up to pay my mortgage or SNAP recipients’ groceries during the shutdown. Easy to say shut it down forever when you aren’t the one making the sacrifices.

So I'm guessing you agree with me that the Dems should have just accepted the original deal as the same one they accepted yesterday. Why put you and others through the pain and stress for over 50 days and accomplish nothing to protect health care or food assistance ?

 

[an0maly]

Let there be zero further questions why elected Democrats poll on the level of ticks and salmonella bacteria. Republicans hate them for what party they are, and moral humans hate them for their cowardice and failure to fight back against Republicans. Virtually no one who is polled feels anything other than hatred and contempt.

America is just about done, as any kind of positive place in the world.

 

[C-Money]

Dems were put in a no-win situation. Not much you can do when you're trying to deal with others that don't give a damn about if people are getting paid and if kids have food to eat. Yeah, they hold out and the Pubs keep looking like the bad guys, but how long do you hold out when the other side doesn't have a soul and would rather "win" the standoff than making sure people have jobs and food to eat? Trump and the Pubs were willing to let kids go hungry and use it as a political weapon. They are still the bad guys.

 

[Calheel]

So I'm guessing you agree with me that the Dems should have just accepted the original deal as the same one they accepted yesterday. Why put you and others through the pain and stress for over 50 days and accomplish nothing to protect health care or food assistance ?

I never thought this shutdown made sense. Among other things, it just encourages more shutdowns in the future. And they don’t work.

That said, the shutdown did accomplish two things: Got Thune to commit to a senate vote on subsidies (which carries political risk for the Nos) and amplified a political message. Had they just CRed in September then neither of those things would have been accomplished.

 

[heelinhell]

Again. If you think the objective was to actually get subsidies, that option is still on table. The Republicans promised a vote in December. If that vote fails, you have the option to shut the government down on January 31.

This is a bit like the immigration bill in 2024, but in reverse. Democrats are arguably advantaged politically not to pass subsidies.

The end game of a shut down would have been a partial modification of the filibuster rule. Was that really worth people losing SNAP benefits and every other downside?

I've been day drinking since 7am so I may be missing your point.

Are you suggesting the objective of Dems was not to force GQPers to extend the subsidies ?

Are you thinking that if GQPers in the Senate will actually hold a vote on subsidies in December now that the Dems have caved ?

Are you thinking if GQPers in the Senate will hold a vote and the vote likely fails that Dems will shut the government down in January after caving in November ?

Are you asserting that Dems caving has saved folks from losing SNAP benefits ?