U.S. Budget & OBBB | OCT 1 - Gov’t Shutdown Begins

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lawtig02 said:
I'm not disagreeing, as I still don't know what was the best option. But here's a different way to look at it. What narratives did this either reinforce or contradict?

The narrative has been that congressional Dems are weak. Regardless of how it ended, this was BY FAR the largest exercise of minority power we have seen from the Dems since January. Dems will take a hit from the left for caving, but I think it's possible the overall impression will be that the Dems are finally doing SOMETHING. May depend on messaging over the next few weeks, and I wish I was more optimistic about that.

The narrative on the other side has been that Trump and his minions in Congress are chaos agents, out of touch, and dishonest. It's hard to imagine something that could reinforce that narrative more clearly than Trump tearing down the East Wing to build a golden ballroom and hosting a Great Gatsby party at his mansion in Florida while countless federal employees are not getting paid and SNAP recipients can't feed their kids.

If it is the case that economic anger and anxiety will dominate the midterms, and I think it almost certainly will, this could turn out to be a really good tone-setter for the Dems. Or they could blow it. But as frustrating as it is to see them cave, I don't think it's self-evident that the Dems shouldn't have taken a stand in the first place.
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Dems should play this as we tried to do something good, but Trump and the Pub enablers weren't ever going to work with us because they are awful people that would rather not pay federal workers, keep kids from having food and get rid of affordable health insurance while Trump has a party for billionaires and builds his ballroom. They should repeat this every day, as well as them trying to prevent the Epstein files from being made public. Every single day.
 
C-Money said:
Dems should play this as we tried to do something good, but Trump and the Pub enablers weren't going to ever work with us because they are awful people that would rather not pay federal workers and keep kids from having food while Trump has a party for billionaires and builds his ballroom.
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100%

And next year is all about health care. which is a losing issue for the GOP. They were already going to get walloped next year, but this may make it even worse.
 
lawtig02 said:
I'm not disagreeing, as I still don't know what was the best option. But here's a different way to look at it. What narratives did this either reinforce or contradict?

The narrative has been that congressional Dems are weak. Regardless of how it ended, this was BY FAR the largest exercise of minority power we have seen from the Dems since January. Dems will take a hit from the left for caving, but I think it's possible the overall impression will be that the Dems are finally doing SOMETHING. May depend on messaging over the next few weeks, and I wish I was more optimistic about that.

The narrative on the other side has been that Trump and his minions in Congress are chaos agents, out of touch, and dishonest. It's hard to imagine something that could reinforce that narrative more clearly than Trump tearing down the East Wing to build a golden ballroom and hosting a Great Gatsby party at his mansion in Florida while countless federal employees are not getting paid and SNAP recipients can't feed their kids.

If it is the case that economic anger and anxiety will dominate the midterms, and I think it almost certainly will, this could turn out to be a really good tone-setter for the Dems. Or they could blow it. But as frustrating as it is to see them cave, I don't think it's self-evident that the Dems shouldn't have taken a stand in the first place.
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If Dems shut down the government over fucking narratives, then it was a fucking idiotic move.
 
SnoopRob said:
The simple truth is that if this was the best outcome the Dems could get, then they were stupid to pick this fight at all. All that they achieved was...

- Go back to the status quo in government positions & pay before the shutdown started
- A symbolic vote in the Senate that won't matter in the least in the long run
- Maybe a couple of percentage points in polling

That's not worth the pain inflicted on people plus the general feeling that always accompanies a shutdown of "There goes the government again, fucking things up."

If Dems couldn't do better than this, than they should have just passed a CR before the shutdown and gone on with business as usual.
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Which is why shutdowns are not a great political tool. If anyone had asked my opinion (and no one did) I would have said don't shutdown.

Among other things, the pro-shutdown forever coalition was not 40 members strong. You had a certain number of democrats who did not have the stomach for an extended fight. Given that reality, why start the fight? Perhaps Schumer thought he could herd the cats better than he could.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Except then:
1. The GOPs callousness about SNAP would never have been mentioned
2. The GOPs negligence about health care would have been brushed over
3. We wouldn't be having a coming big discussion on health care at all
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So we cause tons of people real pain just for some PR victories.

Again, if this is the best that Dems can do, they're even worse at being an opposition party than I thought.
 
Calheel said:
Politics is all about narratives. What has Trump done since January 20th that is not exclusively for the narrative?
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Created a lot of pain and suffering for a lot of Americans and further undermined the foundations of our government and our society.

What have Dems done? Worreid about "narratives", apparently.
 
SnoopRob said:
So we cause tons of people real pain just for some PR victories.

Again, if this is the best that Dems can do, they're even worse at being an opposition party than I thought.
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What is the alternative? If you are worried about real pain, would you have let SNAP benefits run out and never reopened the government?

There is a sunk cost fallacy at play here. If you call when you should fold at the beginning of the hand, that does not mean that you should keep calling. At some point, you need to cut the losses.
 
SnoopRob said:
Created a lot of pain and suffering for a lot of Americans and further undermined the foundations of our government and our society.

What have Dems done? Worreid about "narratives", apparently.
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Why is that the fault of the Dems and not the Pubs? Should the Dems just not try to get anything better for Americans because the Pubs are bunch of assholes who don't care about most Americans?
 
SnoopRob said:
Created a lot of pain and suffering for a lot of Americans and further undermined the foundations of our government and our society.

What have Dems done? Worreid about "narratives", apparently.
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What else do you think could have been accomplished. Name 13 R senators who would have voted with D’s to end this with a D victory on subsidies?
 
lawtig02 said:
??? Politics is all about narratives.

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A main lesson every shutdown is that government sucks and doesn't care about common people...which harms Dems.

The Dems folded, which makes them look responsible for the shutdown...which harms Dems.

The Dems didn't get any appreciable concessions from Pubs for reopening the goverment...which harms Dems.

Dems could have folded at the very end of October and not jeopardized SNAP and gotten roughly the same deal as they got now.

They could have kept the government open and kept the Epstein files in the forefront of media coverage and gotten narratives that make Pubs look bad. There will always be narratives that make Pubs look bad because they're bad people doing bad things.

Nothing that came of this justifies the shutdown that just occurred.
 
Calheel said:
What is the alternative? If you are worried about real pain, would you have let SNAP benefits run out and never reopened the government?

There is a sunk cost fallacy at play here. If you call when you should fold at the beginning of the hand, that does not mean that you should keep calling. At some point, you need to cut the losses.
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The alternative is not to pick a fight you can't win.

If this is the best Dems could do, then every day they didn't fold previously was a failure.
 
SnoopRob said:
The simple truth is that if this was the best outcome the Dems could get, then they were stupid to pick this fight at all. All that they achieved was...

- Go back to the status quo in government positions & pay before the shutdown started
- A symbolic vote in the Senate that won't matter in the least in the long run
- Maybe a couple of percentage points in polling

That's not worth the pain inflicted on people plus the general feeling that always accompanies a shutdown of "There goes the government again, fucking things up."

If Dems couldn't do better than this, than they should have just passed a CR before the shutdown and gone on with business as usual.
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yes, this
 
SnoopRob said:
A main lesson every shutdown is that government sucks and doesn't care about common people...which harms Dems.

The Dems folded, which makes them look responsible for the shutdown...which harms Dems.

The Dems didn't get any appreciable concessions from Pubs for reopening the goverment...which harms Dems.

Dems could have folded at the very end of October and not jeopardized SNAP and gotten roughly the same deal as they got now.

They could have kept the government open and kept the Epstein files in the forefront of media coverage and gotten narratives that make Pubs look bad. There will always be narratives that make Pubs look bad because they're bad people doing bad things.

Nothing that came of this justifies the shutdown that just occurred.
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I agree with all of that.

But that doesn't answer the question as to what should happen now. The shutdown did not help Democrats. Would you have kept the government shutdown forever for the sake of not taking an L?
 
C-Money said:
Why is that the fault of the Dems and not the Pubs? Should the Dems just not try to get anything better for Americans because the Pubs are bunch of assholes who don't care about most Americans?
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Shutdowns always take two to tango, so to speak, but one side always gets the blame.

Dems will get the blame here because they are the ones who largely gave in.

Dems should certainly try to get better things for Americans, but what did they get from this shutdown? Nothing but the status quo, a show vote (that may not happen), and maybe a couple of percentage points in the polls (that will go away within a few weeks).
 
lawtig02 said:
Dems will take a hit from the left for caving
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I’m curious about your framing. Is it your stance that left = pugilist and moderate = compromising?

I would note that Dick Durbin, considered very left, voted Yes while Warner and Kelly, both moderates, voted No.
 
UNCBAdookJD said:
What else do you think could have been accomplished.
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Not a damn thing. Which is why it was a stupid fucking fight to pick.

You don't start a fight with an MMA fighter when you realize you're a 110 lb weakling with no fighting ability.
 
SnoopRob said:
Shutdowns always take two to tango, so to speak, but one side always gets the blame.

Dems will get the blame here because they are the ones who largely gave in.

Dems should certainly try to get better things for Americans, but what did they get from this shutdown? Nothing but the status quo, a show vote (that may not happen), and maybe a couple of percentage points in the polls (that will go away within a few weeks).
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What else were they supposed to do when the other side doesn't give a damn if people don't get paid and kids don't have food? How long were they going to let it go? They tried to get something better but it didn't work because the Pubs just don't care about most Americans. That should be the message here.
 
Calheel said:
I agree with all of that.

But that doesn't answer the question as to what should happen now. The shutdown did not help Democrats. Would you have kept the government shutdown forever for the sake of not taking an L?
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I agree that driving the speeding car into a tree was better than driving it over the cliff.

But better than both is not getting behind the wheel of a car you don't have the ability to drive.
 
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