I doubt anyone here really likes the cave. I certainly don't. But the more I read about it and listen to smart people talk about it (many of whom are furious and many of whom are not), I'm starting to get comfortable with the logic.
1. It's much easier for those of us who are not having our pay withheld to want the Dems to hold the line at all costs than it is for federal workers, many of whom are Democrats.
2. The travel restrictions are really not tenable heading into Thanksgiving. It may seem petty but from a political perspective, that would have been a disaster for everyone.
3. There's no scenario in which ACA subsidies, even if extended now, would bring down healthcare costs in 2026. It's too late. The cake has been baked. People will suffer, but at this point, there's nothing Dems could do to stop that.
4. Notwithstanding #3, I still think the smart play for everyone, including the Pubs, would have been to take the deal Schumer floated last Friday -- reopen the government in exchange for an extension of ACA subsidies to next September. But it was clear from the first moment the Pubs would never take that deal. Which I think was a really stupid decision on their part, because it means all the healthcare and affordability pain over the next year will fall on them.
5. Dems protected everyone who will be running in 2026, which means the election can be a clean fight between Dems who opposed the Pubs' cuts to healthcare and Pubs who will have to stand by what they did. This will get even worse for Pubs with the vote in December, assuming it happens, which has no chance of passing the House even if it somehow gets past the Senate.
6. This is such a huge gift to the Bernie/AOC/Mamdani wing of the party. They can be justifiably righteously indignant on behalf of suffering Americans nonstop for the next 12 months. The eight cavers may take a blow, but none of them are on the ballot next year. Dems need to let the progressives loose to rail against everyone who is not fighting tooth and nail for ordinary Americans. That will set the right mood for next November.
Dems could absolutely blow this. It won't surprise me if they do. But I'm starting to agree with the Atlantic article above, that if Dems can make the right decisions over the next few weeks, this could be a net positive next November.