U.S. Budget & OBBB | OCT 1 - Gov’t Shutdown Begins

[superrific]

1. We don't have a politician problem so much as a base problem. Maybe we need a thread for progressives diving head first into the crazy. Memo to everyone: at the moment, our party does not have a majority in any part of the federal government. For this reason, we cannot do anything.

What the minority party can do is throw sand in the gears. The problem is that we're the ones who want the machine to work. Trump is gleeful about fucking over Americans to win his own personal battles. So he's not going to back down. And if we are continuing to make people go hungry, overburdening local communities who don't have the resources to stopgap SNAP, for federal workers to have no paychecks -- if we're OK with that, then who the fuck are we?

2. The real situation is this. Dems tried to stand up for health care. Trump decided to force the Dems to stand down by taking the American people hostage and holding a gun to their heads. And like all good Hollywood heroes, we dropped our weapon to prevent the hostage from being killed. That's not weakness. That's not losing. I mean, it can be if you accept it. Or, like Hollywood heroes, we can find another way to win.

Those of you who like meming -- how about Trump as Hans Gruber? Or General Zod? Or any Hollywood bad guy who takes hostages. Stop accepting the stupid and self-defeating framing of this being a "loss." Stop letting Trump pull you into his gutter, where winning and losing is all that matters and the collateral consequences are ignored.

The message should be: we stood up for Americans. For our health care, for a battle we fought hard and won. And they responded by starving people and cancelling flights. Who do you want running the government? Those who will fight for you, or those who would chew you up without a second thought when it's convenient.

3. We don't have to wait around for the politicians to make that message. Go talk to low information voters yourselves. Tell them what's up. It sure beats the hell out of this cycle of despair. Schumer's a pussy because he didn't shut down the government. Schumer's a pussy because he didn't keep the government shut down longer. There is no universe in which Dems are going to win a shutdown fight, because we care about people and the Pubs don't.

 

[superrific]

If Dems couldn't do better than this, than they should have just passed a CR before the shutdown and gone on with business as usual.

How did you feel about Schumer doing just that in March?

Stop asking the impossible, or at least stop mollycoddling those who do.

 

[superrific]

and moral humans hate them for their cowardice and failure to fight back against Republicans.

Stupid take. You're thinking like a WWI general. Sure, run straight into machine gun fire, but at least you don't lack courage!

 

[Centerpiece]

How many Dem Senators are not planning on running again in 2026? 4? Maybe 5? 8?
How many are not running in 2028?
Dems should have negotiated back before the shut down, what they finally capitulated to the other day. Find 8 who aren’t running, sacrifice them, kept the Government running but then hammer home that they did not / do not want what the Pubs have forced down their throats… but that they knew a shut down would not be helpful at all. Explain it in terms everyone can grasp. Paint the mini Mike, Trump and the rest as the bad guys (which of course they are).

Then, when ACA and/or healthcare costs create the havoc which will surely happen… the Dems could say “See! We told you so”. Go ahead and sacrifice those 8 - but don't do what they just did. Shut down the gubment for 40 friggin days - and then still capitulate. What did that gain them?

The chances are the Dems aren't going to flip the Senate in 2026 anyway - but they stand a chance of flipping it in 2028.

The battle for 2026 is the House - and the Dems have a chance at that. I'm not at all sure what shutting down the Government does for that battle.

 

[superrific]

Schumer caved because corporate health care donors funds the Dem caucus. They "selected" 8 patsies to vote who weren't up for re-election until 2028 or 2030. There are no coincidences here.

Wake up! The Dems did not cave for the people, but for PROFIT and to save their own @$$es. They met on Thursday - this was pre-planned.

Stupid take. 2016 wants its Bernie Bro conspiracy theories back.

Here's an idea: before ramping up this kind of nonsense speculation, try thinking of an alternative. Tell us what you think they should have done. How long should they have kept the government closed? Months? Never open it up until the GOP caves? What are the options here.

 

[superrific]

The chances are the Dems aren't going to flip the Senate in 2026 anyway - but they stand a chance of flipping it in 2028.

The battle for 2026 is the House - and the Dems have a chance at that. I'm not at all sure what shutting down the Government does for that battle.

Wrong about the Senate. It's certainly possible.

 

[heelinhell]

I doubt anyone here really likes the cave. I certainly don't. But the more I read about it and listen to smart people talk about it (many of whom are furious and many of whom are not), I'm starting to get comfortable with the logic.

1. It's much easier for those of us who are not having our pay withheld to want the Dems to hold the line at all costs than it is for federal workers, many of whom are Democrats.

2. The travel restrictions are really not tenable heading into Thanksgiving. It may seem petty but from a political perspective, that would have been a disaster for everyone.

3. There's no scenario in which ACA subsidies, even if extended now, would bring down healthcare costs in 2026. It's too late. The cake has been baked. People will suffer, but at this point, there's nothing Dems could do to stop that.

4. Notwithstanding #3, I still think the smart play for everyone, including the Pubs, would have been to take the deal Schumer floated last Friday -- reopen the government in exchange for an extension of ACA subsidies to next September. But it was clear from the first moment the Pubs would never take that deal. Which I think was a really stupid decision on their part, because it means all the healthcare and affordability pain over the next year will fall on them.

5. Dems protected everyone who will be running in 2026, which means the election can be a clean fight between Dems who opposed the Pubs' cuts to healthcare and Pubs who will have to stand by what they did. This will get even worse for Pubs with the vote in December, assuming it happens, which has no chance of passing the House even if it somehow gets past the Senate.

6. This is such a huge gift to the Bernie/AOC/Mamdani wing of the party. They can be justifiable righteously indignant on behalf of suffering Americans nonstop for the next 12 months. The eight cavers may take a blow, but none of them are on the ballot next year. Dems need to let the progressives loose to rail against everyone who is not fighting tooth and nail for ordinary Americans. That will set the right mood for next November.

Dems could absolutely blow this. It won't surprise me if they do. But I'm starting to agree with the Atlantic article above, that if Dems can make the right decisions over the next few weeks, this could be a net positive next November.

I pretty much agree with your 6 points. It's your last paragraph that worries me.

 

[Centerpiece]

Wrong about the Senate. It's certainly possible.

I hope it is Possible. Perhaps last week was indeed a sign of a really systemic sea change. Love to see it. Both House AND Senate flipped in 2026. I just have my doubts, especially after what we just witnessed. American voters have a short memory. Maybe by 2026 midterms the talk will only be about how terrible TrumpMagaGOP truly is. Perhaps by then the shutdown of Oct/Nov 2025 will be viewed as a total disaster for the PUBs. Hopefully everything is attainable in 2026.

 

[superrific]

I hope it is Possible. Perhaps last week was indeed a sign of a really systemic sea change. Love to see it. Both House AND Senate flipped in 2026. I just have my doubts, especially after what we just witnessed. American voters have a short memory. Maybe by 2026 midterms the talk will only be about how terrible TrumpMagaGOP truly is. Perhaps by then the shutdown of Oct/Nov 2025 will be viewed as a total disaster for the PUBs. Hopefully everything is attainable in 2026.

Well, if it makes you feel better, I predicted the 2025 ass-whooping long back. People make election forecasting too complicated. Midterm elections are primarily about the economy and the president's popularity. And not just the actual economy; the perceived economy.

So with Trump's approval rating in the dumpster and people having the lowest confidence in the economy in a very long time, of course Dems were going to run the table. I told you that in January, in June and in September.

 

[Centerpiece]

Well, if it makes you feel better, I predicted the 2025 ass-whooping long back. People make election forecasting too complicated. Midterm elections are primarily about the economy and the president's popularity. And not just the actual economy; the perceived economy.

So with Trump's approval rating in the dumpster and people having the lowest confidence in the economy in a very long time, of course Dems were going to run the table. I told you that in January, in June and in September.

That would be sweet

 

[SnoopRob]

How did you feel about Schumer doing just that in March?

Stop asking the impossible, or at least stop mollycoddling those who do.

I wasn't bothered when Dems passed a CR in March without much issue.

On the bigger picture, I don't think the government should be able to be "shut down" due to lack of continued appropriations, I think any sort of shut down should take an active act of Congress plus the President's signature. If an active budget appropriation ends, then the repercussions should be that the government operates under an "assumed budget" of whatever the last budget was until a new budget is passed. (And the debt ceiling BS should also be done, any budget - approved or "assumed" - should also include the assumed power to borrow to meet those appropriations.)

Folks like me aren't asking the impossible, unless you contend that having an actual game plan with a defined, achievable goal and then sticking together to see that goal through to completion is "impossible" for Dems. (In which case, you - sadly - may be correct.)

 

[Calheel]

I wasn't bothered when Dems passed a CR in March without much issue.

On the bigger picture, I don't think the government should be able to be "shut down" due to lack of continued appropriations, I think any sort of shut down should take an active act of Congress plus the President's signature. If an active budget appropriation ends, then the repercussions should be that the government operates under an "assumed budget" of whatever the last budget was until a new budget is passed. (And the debt ceiling BS should also be done, any budget - approved or "assumed" - should also include the assumed power to borrow to meet those appropriations.)

Folks like me aren't asking the impossible, unless you contend that having an actual game plan with a defined, achievable goal and then sticking together to see that goal through to completion is "impossible" for Dems. (In which case, you - sadly - may be correct.)

Democrats should have taken Trump up on his offer to end the debt ceiling permanently but the Congressional Republicans weren't having it. They like the leverage.

And that is the problem with your proposals. Shutdowns and debt ceiling negotiations are two arrows in the quiver and Congress doesn't have that many arrows. The institution needs leverage to function. Good government policy went out the window a long time ago.

 

[wmheel1287]

This is about the messaging going forward. Democrats should talk about how once again the Republicans would not listen to the American people on the shut down. And evolve it into an overall message talking point how Republicans won't listen. Normal voters can't stand not being listened to.

The war is about the mid term elections. Trump in not running but Republicans are. Yep, Dems failed on the shutdown, but they can shift the blame for it to the Republicans.

Example: every time they get asked about the shutdown just admit they failed and the reason for it was because the Republicans would not listen to the American people. And over time the message will grow legs. Making lemonade out of the lemons.

It is difficult to get mileage out of "the Pubs dont listen to the people" when Dems are just as guilty. They never listen either. They politically triangulate and cower.

 

[sunnyheel]

The idea that the two parties are the same rings hollow to me. Of course there are cynical political games played on both sides, but that's in part because they have to due to the system they are operating under. The difference in how the two parties would govern and how society would look if each was given complete control couldn't be more different though.

I respectfully disagree. And I’m saying that as a firmly committed liberal (you know - freedom, democracy, human rights and the Rule of Law) who always votes for the liberal option (read : Democratic).

But we just witnessed a two year genocidal war on a practically helpless population that was bankrolled and abetted by the US government, and there’s not a dime’s difference between how it was played under Democratic vs Republican control.

We’re still staggering under the weight of a neoliberal regime that was carried out by both sides of the coin. That coin has a liberal tint on one side ((yay my side) and a conservative one on the other (boo their side).

Yeah those sides will bicker and quibble over the minutiae of tax and labor policy, but they never really confront the systemic failures that have produced morbid economic inequality and the resulting misery and precarity.

Instead they play a cynical game of identity politics, dividing us with culture wars that distract from the elephant in the room while accepting the largesse of oligarchs and billionaire Zionists who are really running the show.

I know it’s dark and horrible, but there’s no way out until we find our compass.

 

[uncsig]

Dems should have negotiated back before the shut down, what they finally capitulated to the other day. Find 8 who aren’t running, sacrifice them, kept the Government running but then hammer home that they did not / do not want what the Pubs have forced down their throats… but that they knew a shut down would not be helpful at all. Explain it in terms everyone can grasp. Paint the mini Mike, Trump and the rest as the bad guys (which of course they are).

Then, when ACA and/or healthcare costs create the havoc which will surely happen… the Dems could say “See! We told you so”. Go ahead and sacrifice those 8 - but don't do what they just did. Shut down the gubment for 40 friggin days - and then still capitulate. What did that gain them?

Zero chance that "see we told you so" would have had any impact. People are going to remember Trump running to Scotus to try to avoid funding SNAP. People are going to remember air travel issues. And while premiums will have ended up rising anyway, people will remember there was one party that was trying to do something about it and then remember the Pubs actively voted against it in December.

 

[altmin]

I don't trust that they will. I am old enough to recall people saying "Women will remember who overturned Roe vs Wade and they'll come out in November..."

 

[nycfan]

 

[Mulberry Heel]

And so it begins. We have one party that are bullies and can smell weakness, and we have another party that has too many people not willing to stand up to the bullies. And so you end up with demands like this, because Republicans think they can always get Democrats to back down.

 

[Centerpiece]

Zero chance that "see we told you so" would have had any impact. People are going to remember Trump running to Scotus to try to avoid funding SNAP. People are going to remember air travel issues. And while premiums will have ended up rising anyway, people will remember there was one party that was trying to do something about it and then remember the Pubs actively voted against it in December.

From your keyboard to the voting booth in Nov. 2026 and 2028 and beyond. My point is: it was possible to get that same outcome with 8 senators doing what they did 2 days ago, but doing it 40 days ago.

 

[Centerpiece]

I respectfully disagree. And I’m saying that as a firmly committed liberal (you know - freedom, democracy, human rights and the Rule of Law) who always votes for the liberal option (read : Democratic).

But we just witnessed a two year genocidal war on a practically helpless population that was bankrolled and abetted by the US government, and there’s not a dime’s difference between how it was played under Democratic vs Republican control.

We’re still staggering under the weight of a neoliberal regime that was carried out by both sides of the coin. That coin has a liberal tint on one side ((yay my side) and a conservative one on the other (boo their side).

Yeah those sides will bicker and quibble over the minutiae of tax and labor policy, but they never really confront the systemic failures that have produced morbid economic inequality and the resulting misery and precarity.

Instead they play a cynical game of identity politics, dividing us with culture wars that distract from the elephant in the room while accepting the largesse of oligarchs and billionaire Zionists who are really running the show.

I know it’s dark and horrible, but there’s no way out until we find our compass.

Ok. I agree, if even a bit anti-Semitic.
I’ll go one further… I’m anti-human race.
How’s that?
The compass on this Continent was followed quite well by indigenous peoples.