UNC/ACC Basketball History & UNC/Duke Rivalry

Calheel said:
We didn't have an early exit in March. We made it to the second weekend. An early exit is losing the first weekend. Unless you think all non-Final Four years are "early exits"?
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IMO, a 1 seed not making it to the Elite 8 is an early exit. It's all a matter of opinion, but if you lose more than 1 round before where your seed should carry you, that's early. A 1 seed should make the Final Four. I'll give Elite Eight as a margin for error. But Sweet 16 is 2 rounds before where your seed should carry you.
 
NYCBlueBlood said:
IMO, a 1 seed not making it to the Elite 8 is an early exit. It's all a matter of opinion, but if you lose more than 1 round before where your seed should carry you, that's early. A 1 seed should make the Final Four. I'll give Elite Eight as a margin for error. But Sweet 16 is 2 rounds before where your seed should carry you.
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1. I don't think PASE is the right way to talk about "early exit" -- especially in the preseason. We don't know what our seed will be. Yes, we were a No. 1 seed, but we were preseason No. 11 last year. So, our exit was exactly where it was supposed to be based on the preseason.

2. I think your grading system is overly harsh for early exit. No. 1 seeds make the Final Four only 39% of the time. So, you are saying that 61% of the time they make an early exit. And even if you limit it to the Elite Eight, No. 1 seeds don't make it that far 38% of the time.

TLDR - "Early Exit" should be reserved for a first weekend loss.
 
Calheel said:
TLDR - "Early Exit" should be reserved for a first weekend loss.
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It could also apply to S16 for a juggernaut -- i.e. the 09 UNC team. But as you note, it would have to be for a team that was considered top 5 all season. Basically, last year we exceeded expectations, and then the expectations got a lot higher and then we didn't meet them. But we got where we were supposed to be.

I never thought the team last year was #1 seed quality. It was a deserved seed based on the regular season record, but I always felt that we were overachieving. I mean, there wasn't an NBA player on the roster, save possibly Ingram but he was a second round pick. And while experience can often make up for a lack of NBA talent, we didn't exactly have that either except for RJ and Mondo. Ryan and Withers were new to the program. EC was especially inexperienced. And by last year's standards, Ingram was in the middle, given how many fifth years were around. In relative terms, he was like a soph.

I have a gut feeling that we will be about the same quality this year -- a different team for sure, but it will probably end up in about the same place. If we can good minutes from Drake at the 4, we could be stronger.
 
superrific said:
It could also apply to S16 for a juggernaut -- i.e. the 09 UNC team. But as you note, it would have to be for a team that was considered top 5 all season. Basically, last year we exceeded expectations, and then the expectations got a lot higher and then we didn't meet them. But we got where we were supposed to be.

I never thought the team last year was #1 seed quality. It was a deserved seed based on the regular season record, but I always felt that we were overachieving. I mean, there wasn't an NBA player on the roster, save possibly Ingram but he was a second round pick. And while experience can often make up for a lack of NBA talent, we didn't exactly have that either except for RJ and Mondo. Ryan and Withers were new to the program. EC was especially inexperienced. And by last year's standards, Ingram was in the middle, given how many fifth years were around. In relative terms, he was like a soph.

I have a gut feeling that we will be about the same quality this year -- a different team for sure, but it will probably end up in about the same place. If we can good minutes from Drake at the 4, we could be stronger.
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I also like Withers at the 4 - when not playing some 5. I can imagine a small but ultra quick and athletic unit with 6'9" Withers at 5 and Drake at 4...

The various line ups, albeit smallish will be interesting.

We historically don't do well with no true, established 'big'. Fortunately we haven't had to endure that very much. (James Micheal? Garrison?)

But to your point: I would love to be "about the same quality this year.... probably end up in about the same place".

I'll take that right now, and be happy with it.
 
superrific said:
It could also apply to S16 for a juggernaut -- i.e. the 09 UNC team. But as you note, it would have to be for a team that was considered top 5 all season. Basically, last year we exceeded expectations, and then the expectations got a lot higher and then we didn't meet them. But we got where we were supposed to be.

I never thought the team last year was #1 seed quality. It was a deserved seed based on the regular season record, but I always felt that we were overachieving. I mean, there wasn't an NBA player on the roster, save possibly Ingram but he was a second round pick. And while experience can often make up for a lack of NBA talent, we didn't exactly have that either except for RJ and Mondo. Ryan and Withers were new to the program. EC was especially inexperienced. And by last year's standards, Ingram was in the middle, given how many fifth years were around. In relative terms, he was like a soph.

I have a gut feeling that we will be about the same quality this year -- a different team for sure, but it will probably end up in about the same place. If we can good minutes from Drake at the 4, we could be stronger.
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Well, this year's team has a couple of NBA first rounders (Drake and Ian), lots of experience (RJ, Withers, Tremble, Washington and Tyson) and a potential NBA-level point guard (Cadeau). I'd expect us to be better this year, but we will see how all the pieces gel.
 
superrific said:
It could also apply to S16 for a juggernaut -- i.e. the 09 UNC team. But as you note, it would have to be for a team that was considered top 5 all season. Basically, last year we exceeded expectations, and then the expectations got a lot higher and then we didn't meet them. But we got where we were supposed to be.

I never thought the team last year was #1 seed quality. It was a deserved seed based on the regular season record, but I always felt that we were overachieving. I mean, there wasn't an NBA player on the roster, save possibly Ingram but he was a second round pick. And while experience can often make up for a lack of NBA talent, we didn't exactly have that either except for RJ and Mondo. Ryan and Withers were new to the program. EC was especially inexperienced. And by last year's standards, Ingram was in the middle, given how many fifth years were around. In relative terms, he was like a soph.

I have a gut feeling that we will be about the same quality this year -- a different team for sure, but it will probably end up in about the same place. If we can good minutes from Drake at the 4, we could be stronger.
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Last years team was fantastic. A similar season would be great. Just need to avoid a career worst game by the first team AA in the NCAAT.
 
Bigs23 said:
Last years team was fantastic. A similar season would be great. Just need to avoid a career worst game by the first team AA in the NCAAT.
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So often are UNC exits the result of a reliable player having a terrible game. Fox and Chilcutt in 91, Calabria, Shammond twice, and so on. That's probably true of a lot of teams, though. A good way to lose a game is to have your best player suck.
 
superrific said:
So often are UNC exits the result of a reliable player having a terrible game. Fox and Chilcutt in 91, Calabria, Shammond twice, and so on. That's probably true of a lot of teams, though. A good way to lose a game is to have your best player suck.
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Or to have the other team’s player go on an absurd run, e.g., Harold “The Show” Arcineaux or the big white doofus for Bama last year.
 
Ending of last season was pretty painful with the state loss in the ACCT championship game and going ice cold down the stretch against Bama. On balance though that was easily the most enjoyable bball season since 2019. Consistent, high-level play for most of the year, can’t ask for much more than that. Definitely made me feel a lot more confident about the direction of the program than I did this time last year.

Looking forward, I think we should be pretty good this coming season, but not getting a transfer portal big guy might be something that limits us from getting quite to the level that we were last year.
 
For anyone who's watched him play - how good is Tyson on a scale from Justin Pierce to B. Manek?

I have faith we can cobble together a respectable, not great, low post presence, between Washington and Lubin.

Withers is a perfectly decent, ACC-average player at power forward, but he's not a starter on any team bound for greatness.

If Tyson can really play and defend PFs, we have a chance to be dangerous.

1-3 we are as good as anyone. Cadeau is destined for a breakout year.
 
Slightly off topic, but Joel Berry posted something in support of Harrison Butker a few weeks ago lol.

Always knew he was a big Jesus guy so not the most surprising thing I guess, but still a little disappointing, as he’s one of my all time favorite UNC players.
 
Calheel said:
1. I don't think PASE is the right way to talk about "early exit" -- especially in the preseason. We don't know what our seed will be. Yes, we were a No. 1 seed, but we were preseason No. 11 last year. So, our exit was exactly where it was supposed to be based on the preseason.

2. I think your grading system is overly harsh for early exit. No. 1 seeds make the Final Four only 39% of the time. So, you are saying that 61% of the time they make an early exit. And even if you limit it to the Elite Eight, No. 1 seeds don't make it that far 38% of the time.

TLDR - "Early Exit" should be reserved for a first weekend loss.
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"No. 1 seeds make the Final Four only 39% of the time. So, you are saying that 61% of the time they make an early exit. And even if you limit it to the Elite Eight, No. 1 seeds don't make it that far 38% of the time."

Yes, I think a lot of teams have early exits in March Madness... that's what makes it exciting. But this is just personal opinion, so I have no issue with you thinking I'm being overly harsh... there is no right or wrong answer. I see your POV and get it... I just disagree.
 
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