1. Well, that post was specifically a response to the claim that 1Q economic indicators were up. I responded that the GDP Now indicator was down by a lot.
2. That post was before the gold correction became public and the model adjusted to account for it. After the gold correction -- which, remember, accounted for roughly 200 out of the 280 basis points -- I realized that GDP Now wasn't going to be very reliable in an age of economic uncertainty and tariffs.
3. I change my mind sometimes when presented with new data. Don't you? I'm using the exact same reasoning when looking at the GDP Now report as with the gold correction -- that exogenous factors are messing up net export data and that has a ripple effect on the GDP projections.
I will not claim to have found the gold issue myself. I didn't. It was pointed out, and I learned from it.