Recent content by Calheel

But a half a gallon said he couldn’t.

Regardless of whether he comes back to the USA or not, he can't just sit in an El Salvadorian prison forever. Even the most fervent anti-immigration person has to realize that a life sentence is not appropriate for someone that has never been convicted, or even tried, for a crime.

Yup, same way the Germans should have ignored the anti-Jewish acts of Hitler in the 1930s. Jews weren't popular in Germany, so why waste time attacking those kind of policies? Hold your fire for the unpopular tariffs.

Sure. But then what? Do you think Trump is going to jail them?

I think it is self-evident. Rednecks who spread Covid because they don't believe in science.

But housing costs aren't crushing 18-21 year olds, and only sort of 22-29 year olds. They are hurting 30-44 year olds the most of all, and those people hardly budged from 2020.

How do you deport someone to a country in which he/she is not a citizen? Most countries only accept the return of citizens. Once you get an order from an immigration court saying you can't deport back to where you are from, it is very close to an actual asylum order. Or, do you think it was...

That is my view. I think @superrific discounts candidate quality/exogenous circumstances a bit too much for my tastes. Certainly, young people are regressing a little more to the mean politically, but I think there is a tendency to overstate societal trends and to understate economic/candidate...

Obama likely wouldn't play along, but if he committed to running again if the 22nd amendment were repealed, I'd think there would be a 50/50 shot you could get 38 states to repeal the 22nd amendment.

They may be Obama +34, but unfortunately, they aren't Harris +34 or Biden +34. Maybe we need to bring Obama out of retirement for the Trump vs. Obama vs. the 22nd amendment.

Just put them on ignore. It is a self-ban and works wonders.

Here is how the 18-29 demo has voted this millenium: 2000 +2 Gore 2004 +8 Kerry 2008 +34 Obama 2012 +23 Obama 2016 +19 Clinton 2020 +24 Biden 2024 +11 Harris It seems that the Obama bump has subsided and that the youth vote is more in line with pre-Obama numbers.

I like cross-checking demographic data with the Roper Center, which maintains historical exit polling data (link below) Here are the Demo shifts from 2020 to 2024 18-29 +6R (12 points combined) 30-44 +1R (2 points combined) 45-64 +4R (8 points combined) 65-dead -3R (-6 points combined) So, it...

I am not ruling out the possibility that it could be true, just that I would need to see a heck of a lot more data for believing that it is true. One of my 100 theories on this would be that 18-21 year olds have had less time away from their parents and are therefore more likely to hew to their...