Recent content by treblkickd

Ha, maybe an option at some point, but I'm on the hook to help the kids (2 and 6) down to bed. There is a bar near me that supposedly shows a fair amount of college sports, though it's yet to be seen if that means some/most UNC games.

Yeah I've got the Tar Heel Sports network radio feed going which is certainly better than nothing!

anyone have any hot tips for finding game streams while abroad (in South America)? I'm in Chile for the next 2.5 months and my US-based access to espn streams isn't working here

He had one dunk early, but they've been effective with double/triple teaming him to keep him from getting going.

I'd bet the farm that when Veesar comes back in the refs will hit him with a cheap foul to "even out" the early 2 fouls on Miller.

Sure but that's the kind of thing that you typically learn and get better at, not so much the pure shot an quickness

It's small numbers but Denis is 7/11 on FG and 4/7 from 3 in his limited time, and by the eye test his shot looks really nice. I think he can be a really high-impact guy next year and beyond, and I really hope we can keep in Chapel Hill. In other years I feel like Denis would gotten more...

100% this, but I think there's also an important angle here about just screwed the republican party is no without Trump. A few years ago you heard from many prominent republicans a bunch of stuff about, "we can't let Trump be the face of the party anymore - we'll get slaughtered electorally!"...

PA is different from other states in that there's no in-person early voting, so all early votes are by mail (which republicans have not been pushing). Note that the partisan gap in PA vs other states is wildly different.

I was really just thinking about statistical tests of models, in part because the models themselves are often changing, which is not surprising given the numerous ad hoc components they have to include. Also, the model predictions for different elections are using wildly different input...

I just read through a few things that popped up, and what I saw was no clear consensus - some papers seem to argue that betting markets are better predictors (e.g., your link, and this), others argue that they are worse (example, example), some argue that it's unclear what performs better...

I did just google this and the published research that came up contradicts the claim that betting markets are better predictors than polls.

Depends on how they compute margin of error, but my understanding is that's usually a purely statistical estimate of the uncertainty. An uncertainty due to turnout model would be an additional, systematic (i.e., this uncertainty does not average down if they do the poll over and over) source of...

I think the only sensible approach would be to sandwich each offending sign with two of your own speech-protected Harris-Walz signs.