2024 Political Polls

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superrific said:
Abortion can brings olds to the polls as well, given that churches are community hubs for anti-choice folks and churches skew really old.

I will make no predictions about turnout.
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Yes, but on the theory that the out-group will be more motivated (and all the polling and prior props show that to be the case), I see no scenario where under 50s vote below historical norms.
 
Calheel said:
Yes, but on the theory that the out-group will be more motivated (and all the polling and prior props show that to be the case), I see no scenario where under 50s vote below historical norms.
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All right. Fair. I can see scenarios but I have no idea just how realistic they are.

It also wouldn't surprise me if this is a thing that the AARP does to give their polls a bit of a stamp. They don't want to poll seniors only, because then they will be irrelevant; but they do want their polls to kinda reflect senior interests since everyone is going to interpret an AARP poll that way. So they fiddle with turnout assumptions as a balancing act.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
Obviously have to get to 270 first, but I really hope it’s a bigger margin than that. Losing by multiple states would be tough for the Trump legal team to overcome, but if it’s literally decided by one state, I don’t trust the courts at all.
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It depends on which state, though. The Supreme Courts of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all Dem/liberal. Especially PA. The PA Supreme Court is good, and tends to follow the law. It might rule against Dems if the law isn't on their side, but it's not going to put its thumb on the scale for the GOP. Of that I'm certain. A good friend of mine has long clerked on that court.

The Supreme Court is, of course, the wild card. Most of the issues that come up will involve state law, so the Supreme Court shouldn't really be involved. On the other hand, they've managed to federalize a whole lot of law that didn't used to be federal, so maybe they will find a way to do that here as well.

A few years ago, I wouldn't have thought the Supreme Court would try to mess with the election. It would want to stay out of it. But that appears not to be the case. It's really amazing to read that Roberts was the prime mover on the Trump v. US case. I knew the "Roberts the institutionalist" was always more myth than real, but it's been revealed to be more myth.

So with that caveat, any Supreme Court intervention would be risky. If it tries to help Trump (more than it already has!), it will make Supreme Court reform a top priority for Dems. If the fuckery fails, then President Kamala could be expected to go to war with it.
 
nycfan said:
YouGov: Harris 49, Trump 45 (Sept. 15-17 results)


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Lotta insight in the crosstab:
  • 90% of Trump voters rate "Democrats want migrants to come into the country illegally so they will vote" as Definitely True or Probably True
  • 56% of Trump voters rate "Haitian immigrants are abducting and eating pet dogs and cats" as Definitely True or Probably True
  • 55% of Trump voters rate " In some states it is legal to kill a baby after birth" as Definitely True or Probably True
  • 41% of Trump voters rate "Tariffs on imported Chinese goods are paid by China, not Americans" as Definitely True or Probably True
  • 30% of Trump voters rate "Public schools are providing students with sex-change operations" as Definitely True or Probably True
First of all, kudos to the 59% of Trump voters who are not buying the "China will pay for the tariffs" line. That's WAY more than I expected.

We could talk about the 55% of Trump voters who think infanticide is legal in the US or the 30% that believe that US Public Schools are providing kids sex change operations...

But honestly I'd rather talk about the 90% of he Trump voters who think that Democrats are bringing in illegal immigrants so they can vote... WTF? Have your minds all melted to jelly? This question scored a full 34 points more believable than the next question tested. At the risk of repeating myself... WTF??? I mean only 6% of Trump voters were willing to rate that statement as Probably or Definitely False.

It boggles the mind. WTF is going on here? Is there a board Trump voter who can weigh in here and provide some perspective, I'm truly flabbergasted.
 
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Ddseddse said:
Lotta insight in the crosstab:
  • 90% of Trump voters rate "Democrats want migrants to come into the country illegally so they will vote" as Definitely True or Probably True
  • 56% of Trump voters rate "Haitian immigrants are abducting and eating pet dogs and cats" as Definitely True or Probably True
  • 55% of Trump voters rate " In some states it is legal to kill a baby after birth" as Definitely True or Probably True
  • 41% of Trump voters rate "Tariffs on imported Chinese goods are paid by China, not Americans" as Definitely True or Probably True
  • 30% of Trump voters rate "Public schools are providing students with sex-change operations" as Definitely True or Probably True
First of all, kudos to the 59% of Trump voters who are not buying the "China will pay for the tariffs" line. That's WAY more than I expected.

We could talk about the 55% of Trump voters who think infanticide is legal in the US or the 30% that believe that US Public Schools are providing kids sex change operations...

But honestly I'd rather talk about the 90% of he Trump voters who think that Democrats are bringing in illegal immigrants so they can vote... WTF? Have your minds all melted to jelly? This question scored a full 34 points more believable than the next question tested. At the risk of repeating myself... WTF??? I mean only 6% of Trump voters were willing to rate that statement as Probably or Definitely False.

It boggles the mind. WTF is going on here? Is there a board Trump voter who can weigh in here and provide some perspective, I'm truly flabbergasted.
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Looks like the Pubs' goal of destroying public education has worked on half of the country.
 
TullyHeel said:
Looks like the Pubs' goal of destroying public education has worked on half of the country.
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Yeah, but that's kinda my point. I mean I don't have a conceptual problem with half of Trump voters believe the US allows legal infanticide. I mean half of all voters are idiots (not to put too fine a point on it).

But 9 out of 10 is a different thing entirely. I mean how the hell do you find ANYTHING that 9 out of 10 people agree on, never mind this batshit insanity about bringing in illegals to vote? I mean you literally won't get 9 out of 10 people to agree on an insipidly bland statement like "Music is good". How is it possible that 9 out of 10 Trump voters believe this insanity?
 
lightbluenc said:
The teamsters polling was overwhelming for Biden before he dropped out, so maybe its just a woman thing.
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It wasn't overwhelming. I think it was 44-38 for Biden. I think it's as likely to be a race thing as a woman thing (and is probably both), but there's also the additional factor that Kamala doesn't have the same long track record as Biden in this area, and doesn't have the same blue-collar Scranton roots.

I'm not sure Teamsters' endorsements mean much any more. I think the members will probably vote for whom they like, regardless of what the union says. It's like newspaper endorsements -- they used to matter, back when information was much more limited and so people looked to intermediaries like newspapers or unions to guide them. These days? If you think that states are killing babies after birth, who the fuck cares about what your union boss says? You need to vote for Trump! And if you know that's not happening, then you know you need to vote for Trump's opponent since Trump's brain is more mushy than ever.

On the margins, this might make a tiny difference but I doubt it. There are only about 1 million teamsters worldwide. For sake of discussion, let's assume they are all here. That would put maybe 20K teamsters in PA, on the back of my envelope. Maybe 30K. So how many of those votes would be changed by a union endorsement? 5K? That seems pretty high to me. 1K? I mean, I don't know, and obviously 5K isn't nothing. But it's also not likely to be terribly important.
 
CallMeTyler said:
And eschews critical thinking because it raises questions when all you need is "faith".
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Which is interesting since they also believe every word of the Bible is inspired and literally true. Shall we check in with the brother of Jesus?

James 2:14-26​

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14 What doth it profit, my brethren, though a man say he hath faith, and have not works? can faith save him?

15 If a brother or sister be naked, and destitute of daily food,

16 And one of you say unto them, Depart in peace, be ye warmed and filled; notwithstanding ye give them not those things which are needful to the body; what doth it profit?

17 Even so faith, if it hath not works, is dead, being alone.

18 Yea, a man may say, Thou hast faith, and I have works: shew me thy faith without thy works, and I will shew thee my faith by my works.

19 Thou believest that there is one God; thou doest well: the devils also believe, and tremble.

20 But wilt thou know, O vain man, that faith without works is dead?

21 Was not Abraham our father justified by works, when he had offered Isaac his son upon the altar?

22 Seest thou how faith wrought with his works, and by works was faith made perfect?

23 And the scripture was fulfilled which saith, Abraham believed God, and it was imputed unto him for righteousness: and he was called the Friend of God.

24 Ye see then how that by works a man is justified, and not by faith only.

25 Likewise also was not Rahab the harlot justified by works, when she had received the messengers, and had sent them out another way?

26 For as the body without the spirit is dead, so faith without works is dead also.
 
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