Welcome to our community

Be apart of something great, join today!

Register Log in

2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 6K
  • Views: 182K
  • Politics 
nycfan said:


Wisconsin remains ... weird in polling data.
Click to expand...

How population is changing in Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest since the pandemic – Marquette University Law School Faculty Blog

law.marquette.edu law.marquette.edu

The pandemic and its aftermath is still the big story in this data. Cities across the country shrank. Some, like Detroit, have begun to grow. Despite Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson’s well-publicized goal of “1 million Milwaukeeans,” the city’s population recovery has yet to begin.

The latest estimates show positive signs for Wisconsin, but continued struggles for Milwaukee, relative to our midwestern peers. Wisconsin has largely returned to pre-pandemic form, while Milwaukee County is continuing to shrink at twice the rate of the 2010s.

Wisconsin added 20,000 net new residents from July 2022 to July 2023, a growth rate of 0.35%, which is practically identical to the state’s average growth rate during the previous decade. That growth was nearly double the state’s increase of 11,000 in 2022, which came on the heels of a 17,000-person loss in the first year of the pandemic.

Population change can be broken down into two components — net migration and natural change (births minus deaths). The next graph shows why each state grew or shrank over the past three years. Wisconsin’s 2023 growth rate falls below Minnesota and Indiana but above Michigan and Iowa. Illinois is still shrinking badly.

...
Milwaukee County’s population fell by an estimated 1,800 during the 12-month period ending July 2023. That was an improvement over the previous two years, when the population fell by 6,200 and 14,300, respectively. Still, the county shrank by 0.2% in 2023, compared with an average annual decline of less than 0.1% throughout the 2010s.

...
If the healthiest counties grow from births and migration, then the most troubled counties are shrinking for both reasons. These counties — which have more deaths than births and more leavers than comers — are found most commonly in rural Illinois and Iowa. In Wisconsin they include just Columbia, Crawford, Juneau, and Jackson counties.

Seven of the region’s largest 10 counties fall into the next category — where natural change is positive, but offset by out-migration. To put it reductively, people seem to have kids in these counties, then they leave. This status includes Milwaukee County; Cook, Kenosha, Lake, and DuPage counties in the Chicago metro; Wayne and Oakland counties in the Detroit metro; and Marion County (containing Indianapolis).
 
Also Quinnipiac:

PA:

Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey leads Republican challenger David McCormick 52 - 43 percent, essentially unchanged from August.

Michigan:

"With a gender gap as wide as Lake Michigan, Harris leads Trump by about 20 percentage points among women and Trump leads Harris among men by half that," added Malloy.

Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin has a slight lead over former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers 51 - 46 percent in the U.S. Senate race in Michigan.

WI:

In a tight race, incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin has a slight lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde 51 - 47 percent.
 
Seems like Wisconsin is bleeding blue area voters and it is being masked a bit by births, but those are non-voters.
 
nycfan said:
More on Quinnipiac results: Swing State Poll 2024: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin: Harris Ahead In 2 Key Battleground States, 3rd State Up For Grabs, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Democrats Have Leads In All 3 States | Quinnipiac University Poll

The economy:
  • PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 50 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.

Immigration:
  • PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 49 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 52 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.

Preserving democracy in the United States:
  • PA: 45 percent say Trump, while 52 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 45 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 47 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris.

Abortion:
  • PA: 38 percent say Trump, while 57 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 42 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 40 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris.

A crisis that put the country at great risk:
  • PA: 47 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris;
  • MI: 47 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris;
  • WI: 48 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris.
Click to expand...

Confused Always Sunny GIF by It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
 
I'm not sure if that analysis of WI population trends is very helpful. Migration (in or out) affects the voting population, but births do not. So in these counties where births outnumber deaths . . . well, that's a problem for two decades from now, if we still exist.

Plus, that migration is tracked at the county level. Sure, people are leaving Milwaukee. If they are headed out of state, that matters; otherwise it only matters for the House and potentially state races.

Also it's worth remembering that migration into a red area doesn't necessarily mean an influx of Republican voters. There's not necessarily a very high correlation between the political views of an area and the political views of its newcomers. We've talked about that re: NC in this cycle, and of course it's familiar to anyone who had spent any time in Cary or Fuquay Varina in the 80s.

So basically we don't know from that chart or article whether population changes since 2020 will help either candidate or how much.
 




www.aarp.org

AARP Poll: Harris and Trump Virtually Tied in Wisconsin

The presidential race is tight In key battleground state
www.aarp.org www.aarp.org

"... Forty-nine percent of likely voters favor Harris while 48 percent support Trump in a head-to-head matchup. When the lens shifts to voters 50-plus, former President Trump takes a 3-percentage-point lead over Vice President Harris, according to the poll. Fifty percent of older voters prefer Trump, while 47 percent favor Harris. ...

The latest presidential poll results, which are within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent for likely voters and plus or minus 3.5 percent for older voters, show a shift from an AARP Wisconsin poll taken in late June and early July when voters were asked about a matchup between Democratic President Joe Biden and GOP candidate Trump. In that summer poll, Trump was 5 percentage points ahead of Biden among all voters, and he led Biden by 9 points among voters 50-plus. Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee Aug. 5 after Biden announced he was ending his reelection campaign ..."

[AARP tends to assume 50+ turnout at/above historic norms and youth turnout below historic norms in the LV efforts, which is not a bad assumption, honestly]

 
Last edited:
altmin said:
Seems like Wisconsin is bleeding blue area voters and it is being masked a bit by births, but those are non-voters.
Click to expand...
Bleeding blue area voters doesn't mean bleeding blue voters. White flight in the 1960s and 1970s pummeled cities, but it didn't make the cities less Dem. In fact, they became more Dem, I'm pretty sure. In the case of white flight to the burbs, it didn't affect the statewide vote totals in the short-term, and probably in the long-term contributed to GOP growth. But migration out of state obviously makes a difference, duh.

I'm more concerned about deaths. Black people, unfortunately, have lower life expectancies than white people. So it's possible that black boomers are dying faster than white boomers, and that would be a good trend for Pubs. I'm not sure how pronounced it is.

The other thing to remember about that link above is that it's measuring from the last census. The data for the 2020 census was largely conducted in the spring and summer of 2020 -- i.e. around the time that Covid was disproportionately killing people in bigger cities like Detroit and NYC. What we care about are the voting rolls from 2020 (because we are implicitly using that as the reference point for how this election will go). There's a gap in time there, and if lots of city deaths happened in those months, then we'd see a big change in the population numbers from census to now, and less change in the population numbers from November until now. That process would then reverse when Covid swept through WI, primarily after the election.
 
Saw the Chair of the Wis Dem party the other day on TV He said 2/3s of all Dem Voters in Wis do not live in Live or Madison or Milw. Now he did not say "metro areas" so it could be City limits proper...But anyway-interesting
 
nycfan said:
[AARP tends to assume 50+ turnout at/above historic norms and youth turnout below historic norms in the LV efforts, which is not a bad assumption, honestly]
Click to expand...
In light of Dobbs and abortion props, why would you assume that 50+ would exceed historical norms and under 50 would trail historical norms. I predict that under 50 voters will be significantly above 2020 and 2016 percentages.
 
Calheel said:
In light of Dobbs and abortion props, why would you assume that 50+ would exceed historical norms and under 50 would trail historical norms. I predict that under 50 voters will be significantly above 2020 and 2016 percentages.
Click to expand...
Abortion can brings olds to the polls as well, given that churches are community hubs for anti-choice folks and churches skew really old.

I will make no predictions about turnout.
 
superrific said:
Abortion can brings olds to the polls as well, given that churches are community hubs for anti-choice folks and churches skew really old.

I will make no predictions about turnout.
Click to expand...
Yes, but on the theory that the out-group will be more motivated (and all the polling and prior props show that to be the case), I see no scenario where under 50s vote below historical norms.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top