2024 Political Polls

[farce©]

Florida is rapidly turning into a disaster zone under DeSantis’s leadership with skyrocketing insurance rates and climate-related castrophes exacerbated by the insurance problems. I believe marijuana and abortion are both on the ballot this fall too. Now, I’m wirh you in that I’ll absolutely believe Florida goes blue when I see it, but I think it’s definitely “in play” this fall.

Well, there was a big, enthusiastic Kamala golf cart parade at The Villages last weekend. That would have never happened 4 years ago.

 

[CFordUNC]

Well, there was a big, enthusiastic Kamala golf cart parade at The Villages last weekend. That would have never happened 4 years ago.

Yeah. The fact that the Trump campaign even has to try in Florida now- meaning spend time, energy, and resources- isn’t good for them.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

Not trying to be argumentative or insert myself into y’all’s conversation, but where and how exactly are grocery prices out of control right now? I’m asking sincerely, because I haven’t seen it. Prices on poultry, eggs, and produce seem to be pretty normal now, and have been for most of the last year or so with supply chains more stabilized post-pandemic. And housing prices are out of control because of a lack of inventory, are they not?

It’s just hard for me to take seriously most fear-mongering about the economy when American consumer spending is at all time highs, and spending on vacation travel (and more specifically the number of people taking vacations period) hit all time highs this summer. The American public certainly isnt *acting* like the economy is in as bad of shape as the right wing would like everyone to believe in an election year.

People who are well off - which includes my immediate family and yours and 90% of people who post on this board - are doing fine and have plenty of discretionary income. But there are middle class people out there being left behind. Especially younger folks who can’t afford houses and kids. It’s going to cost me $3,300+ per month in after tax money to have two kids in daycare in Cary starting in 2025. That’s absurd and something most people just can’t afford.

Not saying that’s all Joe Biden or Kamala Harris’s fault. But my point is, a lot of people out there are struggling to make ends meet. And that’s why this election will be a referendum on which administration people feel their dollar stretched further under.

 

[uncgriff]

People who are well off - which includes my immediate family and yours and 90% of people who post on this board - are doing fine and have plenty of discretionary income. But there are middle class people out there being left behind. Especially younger folks who can’t afford houses and kids. It’s going to cost me $3,300+ per month in after tax money to have two kids in daycare in Cary starting in 2025. That’s absurd and something most people just can’t afford.

Not saying that’s all Joe Biden or Kamala Harris’s fault. But my point is, a lot of people out there are struggling to make ends meet. And that’s why this election will be a referendum on which administration people feel their dollar stretched further under.

Of course subsidized child care to allow the middle class to work has been a democratic platform for years but don't let that stop you.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

You sure about that?

Inflation vs. wages: How rising prices stack up against growing pay

On average, wages have risen faster than prices since the onset of the pandemic, and lower-paid workers have seen the steepest gains even while facing the highest cost burdens.

www.nbcnews.com

Since February 2020, the Consumer Price Index has climbed a cumulative 20.8%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Over that same period, average hourly earnings rose 22.3%.

The chart below shows the result: Inflation-adjusted hourly earnings (the yellow line) have increased 1.5% since December 2019, indicating a net gain for workers' average spending power.

There are different ways to measure food inflation depending on what the basket of groceries is, but food prices have gone up more than 20% since 2020 no matter how you slice it.

 

[CFordUNC]

People who are well off - which includes my immediate family and yours and 90% of people who post on this board - are doing fine and have plenty of discretionary income. But there are middle class people out there being left behind. Especially younger folks who can’t afford houses and kids. It’s going to cost me $3,300+ per month in after tax money to have two kids in daycare in Cary starting in 2025. That’s absurd and something most people just can’t afford.

Not saying that’s all Joe Biden or Kamala Harris’s fault. But my point is, a lot of people out there are struggling to make ends meet. And that’s why this election will be a referendum on which administration people feel their dollar stretched further under.

Right, but I’m just saying that you don’t get all-time highs in consumer spending and vacation travel without the middle class contributing significantly to the numbers. That’s all I’m saying. There are certainly plenty of families in our country who are struggling to make ends meet. I’m not discounting that at all, by any means. I’m just saying that the economy is objectively better for a lot more people in the country right now than not. But as you said, each voter will have the chance to make that determination for themselves in November.

 

[ChileG]

You don’t think the price of groceries and housing is out of control? When inflation is 9% for a year or two (far outpacing wage growth), and then it normalizes from there to 2-3% (to match wage growth), workers are still behind from the 9% inflation time period.

That’s why I’m focusing on price levels and not inflation, because it’s the inflation from 2 years ago that is still killing people.

Is? No.
I see a couple others corrected you on your wage growth assumptions.
Have a nice evening.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

Of course subsidized child care to allow the middle class to work has been a democratic platform for years but don't let that stop you.

Would be a hell of a lot better platform point for them to emphasize than the student loan forgiveness they’ve been trying to push. Out of curiosity, do you have any details on their proposed plan for child care? Seems to me like the kind of thing they would cut off for people earning more than $150k or some other arbitrary cutoff.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Can we kind of get this back on talking polls and predictions?

 

[He's Not Here]

Sigh. I am asking why you, HeelYeah2012, believe that prices are out of control when the data says that prices not very much not out of control. The high inflation days are over, for now at least.
If you don’t believe that is true, why not?

I was looking for “the cows can program the vcr.” But this was closest I could find

 

[altmin]

not sure i can personally take anything seriously that has florida in play

I think this was the guy who had the Democrats taking the House last election (and wouldn't show his math) and insisting it would still happen the night of despite there being no possible way. I might be mixing him up with someone else though.

 

[maxcrowder]

The problem is the term "independent." It just means people who don't identify with either party. Most MAGAs are independent in that sense, at least until they complete their takeover (almost complete) of the GOP.

The people saying Trump will make their finances better are overwhelmingly MAGA.

And Trump doesn't have one policy that will benefit them economically, even his tax cut screwed the maga middle and lower class. They're just to stupid to realize it.

 

[aGDevil2k]

I think this was the guy who had the Democrats taking the House last election (and wouldn't show his math) and insisting it would still happen the night of despite there being no possible way. I might be mixing him up with someone else though.

I thought Bouzy was the one that said the Dems had a shot and it would be within 3-5 seats. Could be wrong. He's definitely been pretty close on most things in the MAGA era. Though he did say getting rid of Biden would be a mistake... And then admitted he seems to be wrong on that big time

He definitely wasn't red waving like a silver and wasseeman

 

[CFordUNC]

Would be a hell of a lot better platform point for them to emphasize than the student loan forgiveness they’ve been trying to push. Out of curiosity, do you have any details on their proposed plan for child care? Seems to me like the kind of thing they would cut off for people earning more than $150k or some other arbitrary cutoff.

I couldn’t quite remember what the income cut off was but I knew earlier in the year I had read about the Biden team putting forth a proposal for a childcare subsidy. It looks like it had a cut off of $200,000 household income.

“As part of his budget proposal on Monday, President Joe Biden is asking Congress to make child care more affordable for the parents of 16 million children around the country.

The president is requesting a $500 million increase in Child Care and Development Block Grant funding, which states use to lower the cost of child care for low-income families and raise child care provider wages.

But advocates say it’s not enough to stabilize the nation’s child care system, which has been teetering ever since the nearly $40 billion in child care subsidies approved under the American Rescue Plan Act expired at the end of September.

As part of his budget proposal on Monday, President Joe Biden is asking Congress to make child care more affordable for the parents of 16 million children around the country.

The president is requesting a $500 million increase in Child Care and Development Block Grant funding, which states use to lower the cost of child care for low-income families and raise child care provider wages.

But advocates say it’s not enough to stabilize the nation’s child care system, which has been teetering ever since the nearly $40 billion in child care subsidies approved under the American Rescue Plan Act expired at the end of September.

Biden’s proposal would give providers some help, said Patricia Cole, senior policy director for the advocacy group Zero to Three. But it wouldn't be enough.

She applauded a separate proposal in Biden’s budget to create “a historic new program” in which households making up to $200,000 would receive subsidies to pay for child care. According to the proposal, most parents would pay just $10 a day. Low-income families would receive free child care.

The new program would mainly benefit parents, Cole said, adding that, although the administration has not released details of the proposal, it could still include much-needed funding to raise the salaries of child care workers.

To stabilize the industry, though, Cole said Congress would have to approve the $16 billion that Biden requested last year to restore the ARPA child care subsidies for providers as part of the current fiscal year’s spending. Biden is expected to continue seeking the funding as part of supplemental funding separate from the normal budget legislation. But Congress does not appear to be considering such an increase.

Cole said the child care grants could also see a slight increase in the final six appropriations bills the House and Senate are currently negotiating.“

Biden proposes 'historic new program' to address child care shortages

In his budget, the president is asking Congress for more money for child care and the restoration of several pandemic-era programs, including the full child care tax expansion.

www.govexec.com

 

[maxcrowder]

You sure about that?

Inflation vs. wages: How rising prices stack up against growing pay

On average, wages have risen faster than prices since the onset of the pandemic, and lower-paid workers have seen the steepest gains even while facing the highest cost burdens.

www.nbcnews.com

Since February 2020, the Consumer Price Index has climbed a cumulative 20.8%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Over that same period, average hourly earnings rose 22.3%.

The chart below shows the result: Inflation-adjusted hourly earnings (the yellow line) have increased 1.5% since December 2019, indicating a net gain for workers' average spending power.

Those annoying facts!

 

[uncjhodges]

Who is this guy and why should I take him seriously?

Me? no you should definitely not take me seriously. I will defer to the experts (and wasn’t thinking about ballot measures etc) Im in the CFord mode of believe it when i see it with florida and would rather spend the money elsewhere

 

[WaynetheDrain]

If he's right about this ... Whew that would be so wonderful

Christopher Bouzy on Spoutible

Here is my map from earlier.

spoutible.com

Bouzy is mainlining hopium.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Bouzy is mainlining hopium.

If he's right, November will be wonderful

 

[CFordUNC]

I won't even remotely allow myself to think that all three of North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida would go blue in November, but I do think there is a decent probability that one of the first two will do so.

My guess as it stands right now is that Dems get the Blue Wall, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia for a 303-235 win. The nice thing about that is, even without Georgia, they still win 287-251, and even without both Georgia and Arizona, they still win 276-262.

 

[CFordUNC]