2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Trump be like: "Wait till the pollsters hear about the market crashing today... the Kamala Crash of '24! Couldn't have come at a better time for yours truly!"
 
aGDevil2k said:
He trolls Nate mercilessly. That's fun.

Nate is a sad case of someone who had a great lane, and just tried to become too media famous. I guess he got rich, fine, but he just kept trying to be THE MAN and it led to a backlash
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It actually reminds me a lot of of Baseball Prospectus and the early sabermetric community. There would be years that BPro's projected standings would look really good and they'd celebrate and be arrogant. Then there would be years that you could predict every single team would finish 81-81 and beat their predictions. Then the excuses came. It mirrored the community at large that just couldn't be wrong. They would make an accurate prediction and it was because they knew more than everyone. They would make an inaccurate prediction and suddenly things like true talent level would get uttered (true talent level was a nice way to say that they were right and reality was wrong).

Much has been made of the whole scouts vs stats thing, but the real issue with the stats community was a failure to understand their limitations. And I see a ton of that with Silver now.
 
Aah. The Nate hate continues unabated I see.

Rather than “catching up” he could simply be adjusting for additional positive data that has come out for Kamala in the last two weeks. You know, when the facts change …
 
I think the “Nate hate” likely stems from the fact that to some folks he has become insufferably recreationally contrarian. I don’t really know enough about him or his methodology to have too much of an opinion on him, other than I think he does come across on Twitter as a bit of a jerk sometimes. But, hey, don’t we all!
 
CFordUNC said:
I think the “Nate hate” likely stems from the fact that to some folks he has become insufferably recreationally contrarian. I don’t really know enough about him or his methodology to have too much of an opinion on him, other than I think he does come across on Twitter as a bit of a jerk sometimes. But, hey, don’t we all!
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He also catches a lot of flak for being funded by Peter Thiel.
 
A new SurveyUSA poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally in the presidential race among likely voters, 48% to 45%.

Another 3% of voters say they will vote for another candidate and 4% say they are undecided.

Key takeaway: Suburban women choose Harris by an 18-point margin, while suburban men vote for Trump by 15 points – a 33-point gender gap.

politicalwire.com

Kamala Harris Leads In Another National Poll

A new SurveyUSA poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally in the presidential race among likely voters, 48% to 45%.Another 3% of voters say they will vote for another candidate and 4% say they are undecided.Key takeaway: Suburban women choose Harris by an 18-point margin, whil
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com
 


“…
  • Regardless of whom they support, registered voters divide (48% to 48%) as to who they think will win the presidential election. Trump previously had a 20-percentage point advantage over Biden on this question. 52% of independents currently believe Harris will be victorious.
  • 47% of Americans are either very satisfied or satisfied with the two major party candidates for president. 50%, including 65% of independents, are either not very satisfied or not satisfied at all with their choice of presidential candidates. When asked earlier in the campaign between Biden and Trump, 42% were satisfied and 55% were dissatisfied.“
 
politicalwire.com

A Massive Shift in the Rust Belt States

Data for Progress polled Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin a month ago and again last week.The first poll was just before Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid and Donald Trump led Kamala Harris in these battleground states by 7 percentage points (and Biden by 6 percentage points).The se
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

Data for Progress polled Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin a month ago and again last week.

The first poll was just before Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid and Donald Trump led Kamala Harris in these battleground states by 7 percentage points (and Biden by 6 percentage points).

The second poll last week found Harris now leads Trump by 1 percentage point.

Key takeaway: “Overall, the results suggest that Democrats have a chance to reclaim the narrative going into the final months of the election campaign. Harris has made important improvements in terms of her favorability ratings and has a narrow lead over Trump in the Rust Belt collectively. The presidential race once again appears to be a true tossup.”
 
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