2024 Political Polls

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aGDevil2k said:
He trolls Nate mercilessly. That's fun.

Nate is a sad case of someone who had a great lane, and just tried to become too media famous. I guess he got rich, fine, but he just kept trying to be THE MAN and it led to a backlash
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He’s not kidding about Nate trying to catch up, either.

When Biden was still in, he had Trump at around 75% chance to win the EC. Fair enough.

Then Kamala pinch hits, and his first prediction gives Trump a 61-39 advantage. Then a week later it lowers to 57-43. Then a few days later it’s down to 53-47. Then 51-49 a couple days later. Then 51-49 in favor of Kamala yesterday. Now 53-49.
 
aGDevil2k said:
He trolls Nate mercilessly. That's fun.

Nate is a sad case of someone who had a great lane, and just tried to become too media famous. I guess he got rich, fine, but he just kept trying to be THE MAN and it led to a backlash
Click to expand...
Nate tried to become just another pundit. He honestly doesn’t know anything more about politics than any of us. He could’ve stuck to the math modeling which was his niche.
 
Trump be like: "Wait till the pollsters hear about the market crashing today... the Kamala Crash of '24! Couldn't have come at a better time for yours truly!"
 
aGDevil2k said:
He trolls Nate mercilessly. That's fun.

Nate is a sad case of someone who had a great lane, and just tried to become too media famous. I guess he got rich, fine, but he just kept trying to be THE MAN and it led to a backlash
Click to expand...
It actually reminds me a lot of of Baseball Prospectus and the early sabermetric community. There would be years that BPro's projected standings would look really good and they'd celebrate and be arrogant. Then there would be years that you could predict every single team would finish 81-81 and beat their predictions. Then the excuses came. It mirrored the community at large that just couldn't be wrong. They would make an accurate prediction and it was because they knew more than everyone. They would make an inaccurate prediction and suddenly things like true talent level would get uttered (true talent level was a nice way to say that they were right and reality was wrong).

Much has been made of the whole scouts vs stats thing, but the real issue with the stats community was a failure to understand their limitations. And I see a ton of that with Silver now.
 
Aah. The Nate hate continues unabated I see.

Rather than “catching up” he could simply be adjusting for additional positive data that has come out for Kamala in the last two weeks. You know, when the facts change …
 
I think the “Nate hate” likely stems from the fact that to some folks he has become insufferably recreationally contrarian. I don’t really know enough about him or his methodology to have too much of an opinion on him, other than I think he does come across on Twitter as a bit of a jerk sometimes. But, hey, don’t we all!
 
CFordUNC said:
I think the “Nate hate” likely stems from the fact that to some folks he has become insufferably recreationally contrarian. I don’t really know enough about him or his methodology to have too much of an opinion on him, other than I think he does come across on Twitter as a bit of a jerk sometimes. But, hey, don’t we all!
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He also catches a lot of flak for being funded by Peter Thiel.
 
A new SurveyUSA poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally in the presidential race among likely voters, 48% to 45%.

Another 3% of voters say they will vote for another candidate and 4% say they are undecided.

Key takeaway: Suburban women choose Harris by an 18-point margin, while suburban men vote for Trump by 15 points – a 33-point gender gap.

politicalwire.com

Kamala Harris Leads In Another National Poll

A new SurveyUSA poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally in the presidential race among likely voters, 48% to 45%.Another 3% of voters say they will vote for another candidate and 4% say they are undecided.Key takeaway: Suburban women choose Harris by an 18-point margin, whil
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com
 
CFordUNC said:
I think the “Nate hate” likely stems from the fact that to some folks he has become insufferably recreationally contrarian. I don’t really know enough about him or his methodology to have too much of an opinion on him, other than I think he does come across on Twitter as a bit of a jerk sometimes. But, hey, don’t we all!
Click to expand...
When he was still with 538, circa 2017 range, their politics podcast was up there; not Vox/Ezra/Iglesias up there, but I typically preferred it over the Pod Saves bros and the Political Gabfest. I always assumed his boy genius ego couldn't tolerate fivethirtyeight growing beyond synonymous with Nate Silver. so he went full cynical contrarian in an attempt to wrest back the headlines.
 


“…
  • Regardless of whom they support, registered voters divide (48% to 48%) as to who they think will win the presidential election. Trump previously had a 20-percentage point advantage over Biden on this question. 52% of independents currently believe Harris will be victorious.
  • 47% of Americans are either very satisfied or satisfied with the two major party candidates for president. 50%, including 65% of independents, are either not very satisfied or not satisfied at all with their choice of presidential candidates. When asked earlier in the campaign between Biden and Trump, 42% were satisfied and 55% were dissatisfied.“
 
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