2024 Political Polls

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quakerdevil said:
Just imagine the insanity of all the major news networks calling the race for Harris on election night if the margins are big enough. There's no "blue shift" for Don Old to claim as rigged. It solidifies the views of all rational people and lowers the chances of another J6 type event.
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Honestly that is a driving factor for some on the fence folks. Prevent his tantrum
 
nycfan said:
We’ve seen these kind of outlier polls occur and be proven wrong in terms of margin before in Wisconsin, but certainly an indication of the Harris/Walz momentum of the moment.

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The other thing to keep in mind is that you (should) expect polls to scatter around the "true" margin, so if the true margin is Harris +5 and the polls have margins of error in the +/-4 point range, then it's expected that individual polls should get anywhere from Harris +1 to Harris +9. This same thinking applies to the poll a little while back that had Harris+12 (or something ridiculous like that) in PA. It seem super unlikely that Harris will win by anywhere close to +12 in PA, but a result like that also suggests that the "true" margin is solidly at least Harris+(A few).
 
quakerdevil said:
Just imagine the insanity of all the major news networks calling the race for Harris on election night if the margins are big enough. There's no "blue shift" for Don Old to claim as rigged. It solidifies the views of all rational people and lowers the chances of another J6 type event.
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I know that Kamala/Walz have all the momentum right now, but we have to remember that the fundamentals of this race really haven't changed...it's going to be tight on election night and it would be absolutely surprising if the vote tabulation doesn't go into the next day in the closest swing states.

Election night is almost certainly going to be rough no matter what we hope might happen.
 
SnoopRob said:
I know that Kamala/Walz have all the momentum right now, but we have to remember that the fundamentals of this race really haven't changed...it's going to be tight on election night and it would be absolutely surprising if the vote tabulation doesn't go into the next day in the closest swing states.

Election night is almost certainly going to be rough no matter what we hope might happen.
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Maybe. And maybe it is a blowout. There is a lot of time between now and November. A lot of time for either campaign to mess up. There is a decent chance that this is blown wide open by November. We may know the outcome by 8 PM EST on November 5. Or, you could be right and this goes down to the wire. Very hard to predict right now.
 
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Yea, the polling has actually moved more towards the fundamentals of the race (which is why 538 had it close even when Biden was still in). Now we have a deeply unpopular old man with worsening mental acuity vs a younger far more energetic nominee. I feel a hell of a lot better than i did 3-4 weeks ago
 
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