2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Geisterfahrer said:
What about the polling miss of 2022, the red wave?
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I don't think that was a polling miss. I think it was an expectations miss. IIRC the polls and the models called the race just right. It was the pundits and GOP hopiate addicts who were way off.
 
superrific said:
I don't think that was a polling miss. I think it was an expectations miss. IIRC the polls and the models called the race just right. It was the pundits and GOP hopiate addicts who were way off.
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Fair. This is what Nate Silver said:

“While some polling firms badly missed the mark, in the aggregate the polls had one of their most accurate cycles in recent history. As a result, FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts had a pretty good year, too. Media proclamations of a “red wave” occurred largely despite polls that showed a close race for the U.S. Senate and a close generic congressional ballot. It was the pundits who made the red wave narrative, not the data.

With that said, the polls weren’t perfect.

  • Polling averages and forecasts did slightlyunderestimate Democrats, though the differences were modest — certainly less than the extent to which they underestimated Republicans in 2016 and 2020.
  • Some pollsters — such as Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports, which have a history of Republican-leaning polling — had a conspicuously poor year.
  • There are different methods of polling aggregation and forecasting. The margins in the polling averages from RealClearPolitics were on average 1.3 percentage points more favorable to Republicans in the most competitive Senate races1 than those published by FiveThirtyEight. Similarly, RCP’s generic ballot polling average was 1.3 points more favorable to the GOP than FiveThirtyEight’s. In this article, I’ll only be evaluating FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts, but methodological choices made a difference.”
 
Bigs23 said:
That’s chances of the poll timelines being the same in 20 and 24 are very small.

People just throwing stuff out there. I get it.
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yup, to be clear that wasn't my feeling, just the tone of Harry's points
 
aGDevil2k said:
I mean...she's only been running for 3 weeks, only had a VP for 1, and hasnt had a convention.

Also, I dont think Trump is more popular. I think more people are just open to saying they like him than they were in those 2 cycles.
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Trump is less popular outside his CULT34. The Double Haters are leaning toward Single Haters.
 


“…
Harris has closed the gap with Trump since the last Swing State Project survey in May, when Trump led President Joe Biden by three points overall, and was ahead or tied in every one of the seven swing states.

The one state where Trump still holds a slim lead is Nevada, though Harris has narrowed Trump’s margin by six points since May. …”
 
IMG_2391.jpeg

Their NC and NV results appear scrambled to me. But they also indicate Trump gets hit harder by including third party candidates in states where Harris has the lead (except Michigan, where there may be a dedicated anti-Democrat but also anti-Trump voting bloc?).
 
nycfan said:
Trump still in zero danger of losing Texas
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Right, of course not, but the point is that if he’s losing significant ground to Harris in Texas of all places, imagine what’s happening in places where he is in much higher danger of losing. Places like North Carolina and Georgia, to say nothing of the other battleground states.
 
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