2024 Political Polls

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aGDevil2k said:
The hell does Twitter know who is what party
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True or not, someone in the comments was saying that Twitter would have the ability to use the email you signed up with and compare it against purchased data from you signing up for things throughout your life or voter registrations or whatever and compare the emails.

Obviously, Democrat numbers right or wrong, the vote number is not legitimate.
 
lawtig02 said:
Few things in life, save of course really good H&B, would make me happier than a 319-219 EC asskicking.
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Rock said:
True or not, someone in the comments was saying that Twitter would have the ability to use the email you signed up with and compare it against purchased data from you signing up for things throughout your life or voter registrations or whatever and compare the emails.

Obviously, Democrat numbers right or wrong, the vote number is not legitimate.
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Not my data. I went through all the steps to fully delete my account and request Twitter purge all data about me the day Musk took over. I miss Twitter (or at least what Twitter used to be), but **** Musk.
 
nycfan said:
Rasmussen Alert





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Good news ... I guess? Since it's Rasmussen, you probably add 5-6 points to the dems' total. Still, Slotkin in Michigan and Casey in Pennsylvania might be a little concerning had I not seen recent polls that had each of them up by double digits.

Everyone already knows my feelings about polls. I suppose I should Ignore the thread but my prurient interests must be titillated by polls. ;):censored:😊
 
I just saw a silly “Woke Josh Stein” ad from “Friends of Mark Robinson” on the morning local news. More Trump-style dystopian hellscape guarantees if Stein is elected.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
Good news ... I guess? Since it's Rasmussen, you probably add 5-6 points to the dems' total. Still, Slotkin in Michigan and Casey in Pennsylvania might be a little concerning had I not seen recent polls that had each of them up by double digits.

Everyone already knows my feelings about polls. I suppose I should Ignore the thread but my prurient interests must be titillated by polls. ;):censored:😊
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Yeah since they ripped off the mask Ras is way way slanted

This isn't good for trumpy
 
Wheels81 said:
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Are we going to be surprised, and see a state that was -for all intents and purposes- fully expected by both sides to be a given that it will be red in the election flip to a Harris victory?

I mean, I had basically been viewing NC in that way the whole time Biden was running, but at this point, I’ve allowed myself to dream and believe that NC can flip.

The big thing is that voters LOVE momentum. And ALL the momentum is with Harris now. This thing could start to snowball if the momentum grows, coupled with even a small sliver of PUB voters seeing what’s happening opting to stay home rather than vote for a loser.

I’m moving out of the CAUTIOUSLY optimistic category, and more into CFord space in believing this could be a big win.
 
NC can definitely flip. Look how much Trump is coming here. Look how many ads and flyers they are sending out (they never did that 4-8 years ago). That's the tell that they know it's in big danger. And if NC is in danger, that means the blue wall is trending blue.
 
Ted Cruz is almost uniquely unlikeable. Even with that, I'll continue to consider Texas the mechanical rabbit, right up to the point a Dem actually catches it. Now, if October rolls around and the Harris campaign is sending Walz to meet and greets in the likes of Lubbock, Tyler, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, etc. then my eyes will truly open wide.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
Colin Allred is a damn good candidate. I think he's better than Beto. I would not be surprised at all if he won.
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Colin has a problem with left flank support in Texas.

Texas is still a mirage/fever dream, IMO. Allred is an affable football player facing off against one of the most unlikeable politicians of his generation, so there must be some outside chance that a blue wave in Houston and Austin might combine with Republicans who are sick of Ted to result in an upset, but it would be a pretty monumental upset. I wonder if it hurts Allred’s case if it appears Harris is going to win the presidency? It might cause Republicans who find Cruz repugnant to vote for him anyway to make sure the GOP holds the Senate.

Trump won Texas 52% - 46.5% in 2020. Cruz won his last election 51% - 48%, so Allred is polling about the same as Beto finished in 2018. But Cruz received fewer votes in 2018 (4.26 million to Beto’s 4.05 million) than he did in 2012 (4.44 million — his opponent only got 3.2 million votes), and Cruz has had several missteps in TX since then. Having Trump on the ballot probably shores things up enough for Cruz.
 
One other note, by the end of 2023 the population of Texas had increased by over 1.3 million residents since the 2020 census. A lot of people have moved from California and the Northeast, but the political leanings of the migrants is not clear.
 
nycfan said:
Colin has a problem with left flank support in Texas.

Texas is still a mirage/fever dream, IMO. Allred is an affable football player facing off against one of the most unlikeable politicians of his generation, so there must be some outside chance that a blue wave in Houston and Austin might combine with Republicans who are sick of Ted to result in an upset, but it would be a pretty monumental upset. I wonder if it hurts Allred’s case if it appears Harris is going to win the presidency? It might cause Republicans who find Cruz repugnant to vote for him anyway to make sure the GOP holds the Senate.

Trump won Texas 52% - 46.5% in 2020. Cruz won his last election 51% - 48%, so Allred is polling about the same as Beto finished in 2018. But Cruz received fewer votes in 2018 (4.26 million to Beto’s 4.05 million) than he did in 2012 (4.44 million — his opponent only got 3.2 million votes), and Cruz has had several missteps in TX since then. Having Trump on the ballot probably shores things up enough for Cruz.
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17M registered voters in Texas and only 3.2M Democratic voters can bother to show up to the polls. They deserve what they get for being completely and utterly uninterested in democracy.
 
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