Welcome to our community

Be apart of something great, join today!

Register Log in

2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 6K
  • Views: 183K
  • Politics 
nycfan said:
Rasmussen Alert





Click to expand...

Good news ... I guess? Since it's Rasmussen, you probably add 5-6 points to the dems' total. Still, Slotkin in Michigan and Casey in Pennsylvania might be a little concerning had I not seen recent polls that had each of them up by double digits.

Everyone already knows my feelings about polls. I suppose I should Ignore the thread but my prurient interests must be titillated by polls. ;):censored:😊
 
I just saw a silly “Woke Josh Stein” ad from “Friends of Mark Robinson” on the morning local news. More Trump-style dystopian hellscape guarantees if Stein is elected.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
Good news ... I guess? Since it's Rasmussen, you probably add 5-6 points to the dems' total. Still, Slotkin in Michigan and Casey in Pennsylvania might be a little concerning had I not seen recent polls that had each of them up by double digits.

Everyone already knows my feelings about polls. I suppose I should Ignore the thread but my prurient interests must be titillated by polls. ;):censored:😊
Click to expand...

Yeah since they ripped off the mask Ras is way way slanted

This isn't good for trumpy
 
Wheels81 said:
Click to expand...

Are we going to be surprised, and see a state that was -for all intents and purposes- fully expected by both sides to be a given that it will be red in the election flip to a Harris victory?

I mean, I had basically been viewing NC in that way the whole time Biden was running, but at this point, I’ve allowed myself to dream and believe that NC can flip.

The big thing is that voters LOVE momentum. And ALL the momentum is with Harris now. This thing could start to snowball if the momentum grows, coupled with even a small sliver of PUB voters seeing what’s happening opting to stay home rather than vote for a loser.

I’m moving out of the CAUTIOUSLY optimistic category, and more into CFord space in believing this could be a big win.
 
NC can definitely flip. Look how much Trump is coming here. Look how many ads and flyers they are sending out (they never did that 4-8 years ago). That's the tell that they know it's in big danger. And if NC is in danger, that means the blue wall is trending blue.
 
Ted Cruz is almost uniquely unlikeable. Even with that, I'll continue to consider Texas the mechanical rabbit, right up to the point a Dem actually catches it. Now, if October rolls around and the Harris campaign is sending Walz to meet and greets in the likes of Lubbock, Tyler, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, etc. then my eyes will truly open wide.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
Colin Allred is a damn good candidate. I think he's better than Beto. I would not be surprised at all if he won.
Click to expand...
Colin has a problem with left flank support in Texas.

Texas is still a mirage/fever dream, IMO. Allred is an affable football player facing off against one of the most unlikeable politicians of his generation, so there must be some outside chance that a blue wave in Houston and Austin might combine with Republicans who are sick of Ted to result in an upset, but it would be a pretty monumental upset. I wonder if it hurts Allred’s case if it appears Harris is going to win the presidency? It might cause Republicans who find Cruz repugnant to vote for him anyway to make sure the GOP holds the Senate.

Trump won Texas 52% - 46.5% in 2020. Cruz won his last election 51% - 48%, so Allred is polling about the same as Beto finished in 2018. But Cruz received fewer votes in 2018 (4.26 million to Beto’s 4.05 million) than he did in 2012 (4.44 million — his opponent only got 3.2 million votes), and Cruz has had several missteps in TX since then. Having Trump on the ballot probably shores things up enough for Cruz.
 
One other note, by the end of 2023 the population of Texas had increased by over 1.3 million residents since the 2020 census. A lot of people have moved from California and the Northeast, but the political leanings of the migrants is not clear.
 
nycfan said:
Colin has a problem with left flank support in Texas.

Texas is still a mirage/fever dream, IMO. Allred is an affable football player facing off against one of the most unlikeable politicians of his generation, so there must be some outside chance that a blue wave in Houston and Austin might combine with Republicans who are sick of Ted to result in an upset, but it would be a pretty monumental upset. I wonder if it hurts Allred’s case if it appears Harris is going to win the presidency? It might cause Republicans who find Cruz repugnant to vote for him anyway to make sure the GOP holds the Senate.

Trump won Texas 52% - 46.5% in 2020. Cruz won his last election 51% - 48%, so Allred is polling about the same as Beto finished in 2018. But Cruz received fewer votes in 2018 (4.26 million to Beto’s 4.05 million) than he did in 2012 (4.44 million — his opponent only got 3.2 million votes), and Cruz has had several missteps in TX since then. Having Trump on the ballot probably shores things up enough for Cruz.
Click to expand...
17M registered voters in Texas and only 3.2M Democratic voters can bother to show up to the polls. They deserve what they get for being completely and utterly uninterested in democracy.
 
CLT Heel said:
Are we going to be surprised, and see a state that was -for all intents and purposes- fully expected by both sides to be a given that it will be red in the election flip to a Harris victory?

I mean, I had basically been viewing NC in that way the whole time Biden was running, but at this point, I’ve allowed myself to dream and believe that NC can flip.

The big thing is that voters LOVE momentum. And ALL the momentum is with Harris now. This thing could start to snowball if the momentum grows, coupled with even a small sliver of PUB voters seeing what’s happening opting to stay home rather than vote for a loser.

I’m moving out of the CAUTIOUSLY optimistic category, and more into CFord space in believing this could be a big win.
Click to expand...
No chance. Since 2020, Red states have installed mechanisms and MAGA people to make sure that the results go the “right way” by hook or crook.
 
nycfan said:
One other note, by the end of 2023 the population of Texas had increased by over 1.3 million residents since the 2020 census. A lot of people have moved from California and the Northeast, but the political leanings of the migrants is not clear.
Click to expand...
I quoted a Texas Monthly survey in the past that shows California transplants to Texas are slightly more R than native Texans.
 
Hizer said:
Good.

Sincerely,

California
Click to expand...
Bad.

Sincerely,

The Other 49 States.

Seriously, the last thing blue states should be doing is exporting their red voters to lean red states. Instead, they should be exporting their excess blue voters to swing states.

Unfortunately, the internet is helping to get likes to move near likes — intensifying the electoral college problems.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top